MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM TALKS: EU

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000237

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM TALKS: EU
PROPOSES REQUIRED MAJORITY, DATE, QUESTION


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY

Ref: Belgrade 0202


1. (SBU) Summary: EU Envoy Ambassador Miroslav Lajcak,
after receiving the full support of EU member states and
the EU Presidency, has proposed to the pro- and anti-
independence camps specific criteria for the Montenegro
referendum. The required majority would be 55 percent of
valid votes cast, the date would be 75 days after the
referendum is called and no later than May 14, and the sole
question: "Do you want the Republic of Montenegro to be an
independent state with full international and legal
personality?" Lajcak told Consulate February 16 that while
both political blocs complained about the proposed
standards, "There have been no rejections." Both blocs are
expected to seek divisions within the international
community (EU and US) over the Lajcak proposal. Barring
exploitable divisions, Lajcak expects the Montenegrin
Parliament to adopt the law in its entirety by February 28.
End summary.


2. (SBU) On February 14, EU Envoy Lajcak told the EU's
Political and Security Committee (PSC) that, as predicted,
political talks between the two Montenegrin blocs on key
independence referendum issues had deadlocked. All
technical issues -- observation, campaigning,
administration, financing and media - had been agreed by
both blocs by February 10, and embodied in a special law on
the referendum. Lajcak requested, and received, the full
and unanimous support of all 25 EU member states for a
formula to address the key issues: referendum question,
date of the referendum, and the majority requirement. In
evidence of that support, the EU Presidency released a
press statement "fully support[ing] the efforts and
initiatives of Ambassador Lajcak." (Release 6367/06,
P28/06).

The Question
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3. (SBU) The EU proposed one unambiguous question: ""Do you
want the Republic of Montenegro to be an independent state
with full international and legal personality?" Of the key
issues, this gained assent from the blocs most easily.

The Date
--------------


4. (SBU) Splitting the difference between the pro-
Independence and pro-Union blocs, the EU proposed a 75 day
campaign, and moving the date of the referendum, along with
local elections in 14 of 21 municipalities, to Sunday May

14. Lajcak told Consulate that while the blocs cited
"technical difficulties" in holding simultaneous votes, he
observed that it is a common European practice, and at its
most basic requires nothing more than two ballots.
Alternatively, both blocs could agree to delay the local
elections. As Lajcak noted, both blocs have to move off of
positions in which they have now staked their prestige,
which will not be easy, but he expects that it will be
accepted.

The Majority
--------------


5. (SBU) The most difficult issue is the majority required
for independence to be approved. The EU proposed requiring
55 percent of valid votes cast, provided that a majority of
registered voters have voted. Lajcak told the EU PSC that
"the formula provides for a really open-ended competition
and motivates the opposition to participate, since the
higher the turn-out, the bigger the chances for the
opposition." Not surprisingly, both blocs strongly
objected. The pro-Independence bloc told Lajcak the
standard was unprecedented in Europe -- and is privately
worried that getting 55 percent would be difficult. The
pro-Union bloc objected that their demand that 50 percent
of all registered voters support independence for a valid
decision had been ignored, and quibbled about counting only
valid votes to determine if the margin had been met (again
wanting invalid ballots to essentially count against
independence). Lajcak told Consulate he held firm,
rejecting both blocs' complaints, and reminding them that
as they wanted the EU involved, they should consider
carefully the cost in rejecting the unified EU position.

Adopting the Law
--------------

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6. (SBU) As agreed with Lajcak, President Vujanovic is to
call (pro-independence) Speaker of Parliament Krivokapic
and (pro-Union) opposition leader Predrag Bulatovic, to
call for Parliament to meet and discuss the draft special
law on the referendum. The session would start early in the
week of February 20, and (as fixed in the law itself) end
no later than February 28. Lajcak told Consulate that the
law is an entire, indivisible package, and that both blocs
understand the expectation of the EU that the parliament
will take a simple "up or down" vote on the entire law.

Looking for Wiggle Room
--------------


7. (SBU) Lajcak noted to Consulate that both blocs are
already canvassing the EU, looking for Member States to
break ranks and support a lower (pro-Independence) or
higher (pro-Union) stance. Lajcak noted, however, that
Spain has already rebuffed GoM FM Vlahovic, and that the
Hungarian and Slovenian FMs, considered to be the most pro-
independence of the EU Ministers, had both spoken clearly
in favor of Lajcak's formula on the 14th in the EU PSC.
Both blocs also broached with Lajcak suggestions that the
USG would break with the EU. Lajcak replied to the blocs
with the precise elaboration that, "The U.S. supports the
EU, the EU supports the formula." Lajcak said that he
expects adoption of the law once both blocs conclude that
the EU is unified on the formula, and that the USG cannot
be swayed to another position.

Serbia
--------------


8. (SBU) Lajcak said Bulatovic told him that the pro-Union
opposition was not "taking instructions from Belgrade," and
Lajcak told Consulate Bulatovic's assertion is credible.
Lajcak added that the comments of Kostunica's advisor
Simic, that Serbia would only recognize independence if 50
percent of all Montenegro's registered voters supported
such, were deeply unhelpful but expected. Lajcak told
Consulate that he expects the special law to be adopted by
the end of the month, without Belgrade able to exert
effective influence on Bulatovic, which will mute Serbian
objections.

MOORE