SOUTHERN SERBIA -- ALBANIAN COALITION CRUMBLES; MODERATES

UNCLAS BELGRADE 002104 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SR MW YI SUBJECT: SOUTHERN SERBIA -- ALBANIAN COALITION CRUMBLES; MODERATES STILL IN THE GAME ¶1. SUMMARY: The tenuous coalition among Albanian parties in southern Serbia has crumbled, with the two more nationalist parties withdrawing under hard-line pressure. There is no guarantee that the two remaining participating parties will be able to obtain the votes needed to secure at least one seat in parliament. To boost their chances, support from the international community and influential Albanians could be helpful in countering the efforts of hard-liners to boycott the elections. END SUMMARY. ¶2. In the two weeks following the 12/4 agreement between the four major Albanian parties in southern Serbia to participate in Serbian elections in January, two of the parties have reversed their decisions and have withdrawn. Presevo Mayor and PDSh leader Ragmi Mustafa pulled out first, citing "lack of advancement of Albanians" in Serbia and concerns about the presence of gendarmerie forces in south Serbia. LDP president and Bujanovac deputy Mayor Jonuz Musliu withdrew shortly thereafter, citing similar themes and "uncertainty of Serbia's reaction to Kosovo independence." Mustafa has promised not to lead a boycott; Musliu has not decided. In the end, both might. The more moderate PVD, led by Riza Halimi, and DUD led by Skender Destani, have remained in the 'Coalition of Presevo Valley Albanians' and are gathering signatures to be on the ballot on January 21. ¶3. Mustafa and Musliu likely reversed their decisions under pressure from nationalists and separatists. A group of veterans from the Liberation Army of Presevo, Medvedja and Bujanovac (UCPMB) took a public stand against participating in elections shortly before Mustafa and Musliu withdrew. The UCPMB veterans wield influence among Albanians in Serbia and their stand could reasonably have provided impetus to the parties to withdraw. Musliu also made his decision to withdraw during a visit to Germany, where he presumably was meeting with benefactors. ¶4. The coalition faces an uphill battle. Depending on national turnout, they will need between 12,000-16,000 votes to secure one MP. In the last municipal elections, Halimi's PVD drew about 6,000 votes in Bujanovac, while Musliu's drew 4,000. Due to the PVD's boycott of Presevo municipal elections, there are no solid figures on which to project party strength there. In urging supporters to vote, the coalition will have to contend with an electorate inclined to view anything having to do with Belgrade (e.g., participating in the Serbian parliament) negatively. ¶5. To clarify the USG position to the Presevo Valley Albanians, and to bolster those in favor of voting, the Ambassador last week told TV Spektri (a popular Albanian-language station based in Bujanovac) that the USG considers it a "critical" priority that the Albanians and other minorities participate in Serbian elections. He congratulated those still in the race for their courage and leadership, and expressed deep disappointment that the others withdrew. In addition, he recalled that leaders both in Pristina and Tirana (as well as others such as the UK and OSCE) have also urged the Presevo Valley Albanians to participate. We are also supporting an active GOTV campaign in the area and are providing various forms of technical assistance. ¶6. Comment: In the same way which we have urged Kosovo Serbs to participate in Pristina institutions, Albanians in Serbia should be strongly urged to participate in Belgrade's. Following the uprising there over five years ago, the USG has invested heavily in southern Serbia in order to facilitate the integration of the Presevo Valley Albanians into Serbia. By withdrawing from the coalition, Mustafa and Musliu have refused to depart from an unconstructive "Eastern Kosovo" policy that potentially brings them into conflict with core Contact Group principles (e.g., no attachment to Kosovo). ¶7. Even though the best-case scenario is probably one MP for the coalition, a single Albanian representative in the Serbian parliament would still be a major step forward. We should do what we can to bolster support for the remaining coalition members. As the USG and international community enjoy a positive image in Presevo Valley, Mustafa and Musliu will avoid direct confrontation with our policy and will try to dilute the importance we attach to Albanian participation. It will therefore be essential for the electorate to know that the USG and other key players, including in Pristina and Tirana, want them to vote. MOORE