C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000202

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SCE TROY PEDERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM TALKS:
POLITICIANS START TO DISCUSS REQUIRED MAJORITY

REF: A. A) BELGRADE 0170


B. B) 05 BELGRADE 2185


1. (SBU) Summary: The pro-Independence and pro-Union blocs
have started to focus on a definition of the majority
required in the vote for independence, but remain far apart.
Ambassador Polt's visit to Montenegro February 7-8
underscored USG support for a free and fair referendum,
consistent with international and European standards, which
would allow the voters to clearly decide between independence
and continued union with Serbia. He also firmly and publicly
supported the mediation efforts of EU Envoy Miroslav Lajcak,
meeting with Lajcak privately three times. The next steps
expected are the simultaneous adoption of a law to augment
(but not detract from) the existing referendum laws and a
political declaration to govern further consequences stemming
from the referendum vote. Lajcak plans to put the EU bottom
line on majority on the table Monday, February 13. End
summary.

DEFINING VICTORY
--------------


2. (SBU) In Ambassador Polt's meetings with both the
pro-Independence (GoM) and pro-Union (opposition) blocs, the
major issue was defining the majority required in the
referendum vote for independence. PM Milo Djukanovic (DPS),
President Filip Vujanovic (DPS), and Parliament speaker Ranko
Krivokapic (SDP) uniformly rejected the possibility of
requiring 55 percent of votes cast to approve independence.
All said such a standard would be "absolutely and
categorically unfair and non-democratic." They argued that in
case independence won a majority of votes cast but not 55
percent, a minority would be allowed to dictate the results.
Without supporting any specific percentage, the Ambassador
nevertheless rejected the assertion, noting, for example,
that the U.S. Constitution requires a 2/3 super-majority for
amendments. Djukanovic and Krivokapic (in separate meetings)
both railed against what they called "the unholy triumvirate"
of EU DG Solana, Serbian PM Kostunica, and the Serbian
Orthodox Church, all of whom oppose independence. They
excluded Solana's envoy Lajcak from that criticism, noting
they support his efforts a

nd have found him to be a fair, if
tough, interlocutor. Ambassador Polt reminded the GoM to
&listen8 to the EU on this issue.


3. (SBU) Lajcak told the Ambassador that SaM President
Marovic (DPS) has called the 55 percent requirement high,
while admitting that no other formula would be acceptable to
both blocs. Comment: Marovic's influence on the GoM is
marginal, however. End comment. The large and influential
NGO (and proto-political party) Group for Changes has
publicly rejected the 55 percent requirement. President
Vujanovic told Ambassador that if the 55 percent requirement
is imposed, and the vote is between 50 percent and 55
percent, DPS would withdraw from all State Union bodies -
ministries and parliament alike.


4. (SBU) Predrag Bulatovic (SNP), leader of the opposition
bloc, held firm to the opposition demand that independence
must be supported by 50 percent plus one of all registered
voters to be approved. He conveyed that same message
privately to the Ambassador.


Draft Referendum Law
--------------


5. (U) With the assistance of EU Envoy Lajcak, a draft law on
the referendum has been prepared, supplementing current law
with respect to technical issues including administration of
the referendum, financing, conduct of the campaign, media
coverage, international and domestic observation, and
protection of the rights of citizens. A political
declaration will be adopted at the same time as the law; a
key element of the declaration is agreement that the results
of the referendum will control subsequent decisions taken by
the parties and members of parliament. (Ref B) Additionally,
Lajcak has proposed that the campaign be 60 days in length;
the GoM had wanted the legal minimum of 45 days, the
opposition wanted 90 days (the legal maximum) to 180 days.
The law does not address the required majority issue.


6. (SBU) The pro-Independence forces have already told Lajcak
that they support the draft law. Lajcak told the Ambassador
that he required of Bulatovic that the opposition give its
answer quickly, in a matter of "hours." Bulatovic traveled
to Belgrade late February 8 to "consult" with Serbian PM
Kostunica and Serbian President Tadic and has since announced
that he will not give his response until Monday, February 13.
Lajcak noted that if the opposition decides not to vote for
the law, the GoM has sufficient votes to pass it on their
own. Moreover, said Lajcak to Ambassador, the EU would not
consider passage of the law with only GoM votes to be a
prohibited "unilateral" action.


7. (C) Responding to the Ambassador,s question on the EU,s
bottom line on an acceptable majority, Lajcak noted in total
confidence that depending on the closeness of the outcome to
55 percent, the EU would ultimately accept &close, but not
quite.8
POLT