MONTENEGRO RETURNS RULING COALITION TO POWER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001454

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SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO RETURNS RULING COALITION TO POWER


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Ref: Belgrade 1421

This is a Podgorica cable. It has not been cleared with
Embassy Belgrade.


1. (U) Summary: Unofficial preliminary election results for
the Sunday Republic-wide parliamentary elections show the
ruling DPS/SDP coalition holding on to power with 41 of
parliament's 81 seats, an absolute majority. Official
results will be released on September 12. Former Leader of
the Opposition Predrag Bulatovic's SNP-NS-DSS coalition
stumbled, and now has 11 seats to the Serbian List's 12.
Serbian List head Andrija Mandic of the Serbian People's
Party (SNS) looks to become Opposition Leader; his major
coalition partner was the Radical Party, nominally led by
war crimes indictee Vojislav Seselj. Two-third's of
Montenegro localities also held elections. The Government
is expected to announce Ministers later this week, but Milo
Djukanovic will remain as Prime Minister. The OSCE/ODIHR
monitoring mission said September 11 that the vote was
"generally in line with international standards." End
summary.

Moderate Turn-out Confirms Government in Power
-------------- -


2. (U) Voter turn-out was around 70 percent, below the
turnout for past parliamentary elections and below the high
85.8 percent turn-out for the May 21 referendum vote on
independence. Seventy-six of 81 seats were contested
Republic-wide, with five seats "set aside" for Albanian-
majority districts. (In the last, October 2002, election 75
MPs were elected, of which four were from "Albanian"
districts.) Twelve coalitions and parties contested the
election.


3. (U) The Republican Election Commission has delayed
announcing official preliminary results until September 12.
The independent NGO Center for Democratic Transition (CDT)
projected allocations of the 81 mandates, based on its
sample of 200 of 1,047 polling places; they believe their
projection is accurate to plus or minus one percent, and
the mandate allocations that follow are those projected by
CDT. Official results and mandate allocations may vary
slightly from these projections


4. (U) PM Milo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists
(DPS) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) won 41 of
parliament's 81 seats, including one "Albanian" seat. (In
2002, the Government won 39 of 75 seats, including 2
Albanian seats.) The three leading opposition groups split
34 seats, up from 30 in 2002. The Serbian List, led by
Serbian People's Party (SNS) and Andrija Mandic, won 12
seats, displacing the Socialist People's Party (SNP) and
its leader, Predrag Bulatovic. SNP's coalition with
People's Party (NS) and Democratic Serbian Party (DSS) now
has 11 seats.

Newcomers and Albanians
--------------


5. (U) The Movement for Change (PzP),led by Nebojsa
Medojevic picked up 11 seats in its first campaign. The
Liberals, which suffered dissension and defections in the
last two years, allied with the new Bosniak Party to get
two seats (down from the four won by the Liberals in 2002).
Two "Albanian" seats returned to the Democratic League in
Montenegro (DSCG) and to the Democratic Union of Albanians
- one each to current MPs Mehmet Berdhi and Ferhat Dinosa.
The other Albanian seats went to new parties "Albanian
Alternative", based on Tuzi near Podgorica, and pro-
business party "Forca" in Ulcinj.


Opposition Changes Hands
--------------


6. (SBU) Polls (ref) had shown SNP-NS-DSS as winning 15
seats, the Serbian List only 8. Instead, four seats appear
to have shifted from SNP to the Serbian List. Long-time
opposition leader Predrag Bulatovic, never a popular
politician, may exit the scene after the relative defeat.
That will enhance the position of Andrija Mandic, who as
President of the Serbian People's Party (SNS) headed the
Serbian List. Mandic is a Serb nationalist, but not as
extreme as his major coalition partner, Vojislav Seselj's
Radicals (the only party to exist both in Serbia and in
Montenegro). Party leaders can choose one-half of their

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MPs from anywhere on the party list; with a number of
notorious Karadzic and Milosevic supporters on the Serbian
List, Mandic's picks bear close attention. The new
opposition party, Movement for Changes (PzP),appears to
have drawn its vote largely from pro-Union supporters who
otherwise might have voted for SNP (or SNS),and from pro-
independence Liberal voters, leaving the core of DPS and
SDP voters untouched.

Local Government
--------------


7. (U) Two-thirds of Montenegro's 21 municipalities also
held elections on September 10. In Podgorica, incumbent
DPS mayor Miomir Mugusa won handily, outpolling both his
opponents combined. He will also enjoy a bare but absolute
majority in the city council: 28 DPS/SDP councilors to 27
divided among SNP-NS-DSS, Serbian List, and PzP.

Cabinet Expected Soon
--------------


8. (SBU) PM Djukanovic is expected to recommend his new
cabinet to his party ally President Vujanovic soon, perhaps
later this week. Post expects a number of changes, but
Djukanovic has kept his cards very close, particularly as
to key positions such as Defense Minister and Foreign
Minister.

OSCE/ODIHR, CoE Statement
--------------


9. (U) International observers said the elections were held
largely in line with OSCE commitments and Council of Europe
standards for democratic elections, but several reappearing
challenges remain to be addressed. They noted the campaign
was for the most part calm, orderly and low-key, but the
campaign climate deteriorated during the last days. They
said the legal framework provides an adequate basis for the
conduct of elections, but contrary to international
standards and practice, the Election Law was amended after
the elections were called. Some of the amendments included
limitations on freedom of speech and expression (some
limitations were struck down by the Constitutional Court
before the vote). Furthermore, the mandate allocation is
not fully transparent, as it only requires parties to
allocate half of the seats according to the order of
candidates on the electoral list. Some 200 observers from
41 countries monitored the vote and the count. Election day
was assessed positively in 98 per cent of polling stations
visited.

POLT