SOUTHERN SERBIA: QUIET ON THE ABL, BUT POLITICALLY ADRIFT

UNCLAS BELGRADE 001207 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY --- ADDED PARA MARKINGS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SR MW YI SUBJECT: SOUTHERN SERBIA: QUIET ON THE ABL, BUT POLITICALLY ADRIFT ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: With Kosovo negotiations in full swing, Southern Serbia is calm and without incidents of interethnic violence. Politically, however, hardline Albanians in the ethnically-mixed muncipality of Bujanoviac are trying to squeeze Serbs out of participation in the municipal government there. Barring a last minute compromise before the August 4 deadline, there will be repeat elections in Bujanovac. Poloff delivered a strong message that all sides should show flexibility and give high priority to representation of all ethnicities in government. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) Local political parties in Bujanovac have been unable to produce a governing majority since local elections there on June 4. The hard-line nationalist Albanian party of Jonuz Musliu (9 of 41 seats) is attempting to coerce moderate Albanian Mayor Arifi's party (13 seats) into forming a mono-ethnic coalition. (Note: Moderate Serbs and Roma have only 5 and 2 seats, respectively. Serb Radicals won 12 seats. End note.) Arifi favors inviting Serbs to participate in key positions, including the deputy mayorship. An Albanian-only coalition in the mixed municipality of Bujanovac (34 percent Serb, 56 percent Albanian) would mark a departure from the previous multi-ethnic municipal leadership structure. 3.(U) Hardliner Musliu (LDP),who is on the U.S.E.O. list for earlier activities, told poloff that he is being flexible and only asking for reasonable concessions. Arifi and the PVD, for their part, claim to have been reasonable with their offers of a deputy mayorship for Musliu among other positions in the government. Musliu told poloff he was committed to "not making trouble" and "finding a compromise." Unless a compromise is reached by August 4, repeat elections will be triggered. ¶4. (U) Moderate Mayor Arifi (PVD) has resisted Musliu's demands and continues to insist on including Serbs and Roma in government positions. New elections will not, however, likely change the political equation: Arifi's PVD will not be able to get to a majority with a moderate Serb and Roma coalition. Arifi is faced with this dilemma because voters in the June elections shifted their support from moderate Serbs to the Radicals (SRS). Arifi doubts that Musliu has the support he claims from Kosovo Albanian leaders (Arifi says Musliu specifically cites support from Ceku and Haradinaj),and Arifi thinks Pristina knows it "does not gain from what Musliu is doing." ¶5. (U) The GOS' Coordinating Body remains uninvolved. Its leader Rasim Ljaljic told us that he is "aware of the situation" and has considered traveling to Bujanovac the week of July 31. His subordinate on the ground, Sima Gazikalovic, told us the Coordinating Body made the decision to stay out of the way, saying their presence would likely do more harm than good. ¶6. (U) Meanwhile in Presevo, Mayor Ragmi Mustafa (PDSh) continues to assure us that his inflammatory rhetoric during the campaign was only a product of elections and he is committed to Contact Group principles. He told poloff that he knows "borders will not be changed" and that he "is not for a greater Albania." ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: With Kosovo negotiations in full swing, the region is currently stable. Nevertheless, in order to prevent protests from Serb nationalists, it is important that the sides find a compromise which reflects the multiethnicity of Bujanovac, the only more-or-less evenly mixed Serb-Albanian municipality in Serbia. We will also have to remain engaged even if a deal is struck, since Musliu would be able to bring down the municipal council leadership at any time he chooses. This might be likely if Albanian sentiments are affected by decisions on Kosovo, and he thinks his message will get him more votes at that time. END COMMENT. POLT