MGLE01: TWO OBSERVERS FORESEE THE END OF THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000997

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WERNER/DORAN/ABRAMS/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PINS ECON LE SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: TWO OBSERVERS FORESEE THE END OF THE
NATIONAL DIALOGUE AND CONTINUANCE OF EMILE LAHOUD'S MANDATE


Classified By: JEFFREY FELTMAN, AMBASSADOR. REASON: SECTION 1.4(B).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Two men, from different sides of Lebanon's political
divide told us this week that the national dialogue is over.
Ali Hamdan, political advisor to dialogue host, Nabih Berri,
believes the talks will continue, inconclusive, until
sometime in April as Berri plays out the clock. Akram
Shuhhayyeb, a Deputy in Walid Jumblatt's bloc says the
international component in Lebanon's affairs must now take
precedent over the internal component. Both agree on one
fact, as things stand Emile Lahoud will likely remain in
office until the end of his term. End summary.

"OR MAYBE THE DONKEY WILL SING;"
PLAYING FOR TIME
--------------


2. (C) Nabih Berri is convinced that the national dialogue
has exhausted all of its options. On March 28, Berri's
political director told us that he and the speaker believe
the selection of names for the presidency and the weapons of
Hizballah cannot be resolved by the dialogue. A consensus
among Christians is needed around the presidency and Syria
and Iran must be addressed to secure Hizballah's weapons. In
answer to the question of why the dialogue continues, Hamdan
told us a joke. A man agrees, under threat of death, to
teach a King's donkey to sing. When asked why he would
accept such an impossible task, the man says much can happen
over time, the king may die, he may die, or the donkey may
sing. Hamdan expects the dialogue to continue until sometime
in April. Berri is simply playing out the clock and hoping
for the best. The best case scenario, for Berri, would be
resolution of the presidency issue among the Christians.
Hamdan said the Shia couldn't accept that the Sunni will
select the next president in unfair, pre-cooked elections.
Hamdan recognizes it is unlikely for Michel Aoun and the
other Christians to reach agreement. So, he would like to
see the Maronite Patriarch, as spiritual leader of the
Maronites, select one name, or at least a list of names, so
that the parliament could discuss them. If the Patriarch
refuses this role, he should, in Hamdan's mind, be willing to
clearly tell Lahoud to step down. There is no authority
short of Cardinal Sfeir's high office that could pull the
Christians together. If none of this happens, Hamdan
believes Emile Lahoud will finish his term in office. Hamdan
said that Berri sees no advantage in asking Lahoud to leave
office until he has assurances that someone acceptable will
replace Lahoud.


3. (C) The Syrians are playing for time, Hamdan said. He
wondered out loud why both Syria and Michel Aoun wanted new
parliamentary elections. For Hamdan, the answer to the
convergence of Syrian and Aounist interests was at hand.
Aoun may sincerely wish to change the balance of power in the
parliament with new elections. But the Syrians recognize
that by the time new elections could be organized and carried
out Lahoud will have finished his term in peace. Now, the
majority had to figure out a way to rule with Lahoud in
place, according to Hamdan. He was critical of the failure
of the GOL's election commission to produce a recommendation
for a new law within the time allotted. "This was their
thing. No one was blocking them. But they failed," said
Hamdan.

THE PRESIDENCY--A GOAL PURSUED IN HASTE
--------------


4. (C) Akram Shuhhayyeb is a member of Walid Jumblatt's
parliamentary bloc. He is dedicated to the ouster of Emile
Lahoud and to the permanent retreat of Syrian influences in
Lebanon. On March 28, He told us that he is secure in the
knowledge that Emile Lahoud will finish his term in office.
Shuhhayyeb put some of the blame on Saad Hariri for the
present stalemate. He said that Jumblatt, Ja'ja' and the
other allies received assurances from Hariri that external
pressure on Damascus would remove Lahoud from office. That
pressure was to come from the U.S., France, Egypt, and Saudi
Arabia. Saad had received these assurances from the Saudis.
The pressure did not come as expected and Lahoud is firmly
in office.


5. (C) Now, the national dialogue has reached the limits of
it power to influence events. Shuhhayyeb said it took some
effort to convince Walid Jumblatt to attend the March 27

BEIRUT 00000997 002 OF 003


session. The region and the wider world control all of
Lebanon's prerogatives on the presidency and on foreign
relations, Shuhhayyeb asserted. The Christians can't accept
accord with one another, and they can't decide on a single
candidate to support. The majority in parliament can't
accept Emile Lahoud or Michel Aoun. The decision about who
runs Lebanon is closely tied to the fate of Hizballah, and so
it is the business of Iran and Syria. Syrian supporters in
Lebanon will not move against the present resident in Baabda
palace without approval from Damascus and this means a return
of Syrian influence in Lebanese affairs.


6. (C) Without agreement on who is to follow him, the
parliament will not be able to remove Lahoud by
constitutional action. Shuhhayyeb reckoned that any move
against Lahoud from the floor would require Aoun or Berri's
full participation. Neither man would be willing to move
until the successor to Lahoud was named. Shuhhayyeb was not
certain that in Hizballah's case that successor would be
Aoun. He said that Hizballah Secretary General Hassan
Nasrallah had made it plain, in one of his long meetings with
Hariri, that he would be willing to forego naming Aoun if
Saad Hariri would not put forward any names unpalatable to
Nasrallah. So the road to progress was blocked by the
presidency. Shuhhayyeb said that Hariri had proposed to Aoun
that he would withdraw his name from the running for PM if
Aoun would do the same for his presidential candidacy. In
reaction, Aoun left Hariri's side and began to silently pick
through the hors d'ouevres.


7. (C) Shuhhayyeb said that he is part of a small group
from Jumblatt's bloc who meet with Aoun and his people. He
described the talks as flirtations, pursued because they will
certainly have to deal with Aoun during the extended term of
Emile Lahoud and beyond. During a meeting with Aoun,
Shuhhayyeb personally told the former general that Hizballah
had agreed not to support Aoun for president if Hariri agreed
not to submit names unacceptable to Hizballah. Aoun was not
prepared to accept this role as stalking horse. To
demonstrate Aoun's response, Shuhhayyeb mimicked the
General's habit of affecting an erect posture and adjusting
his vest when disturbed.


8. (C) Shuhhayyeb was willing to entertain governing with
Lahoud in office, but he warned that Syria could scotch any
progress on the reform front though terrorism. "They could
send more cars, or suitcases if they want." Shuhhayyeb said
there were scores of vehicle routes into and out of Lebanon
from Syria. These routes are not controlled by the Lebanese
authorities and serve as contraband routes for all manner of
evil goods and people. Security is an illusion that Lebanese
leaders cannot afford, he said. Shuhhayyeb noted that Aoun
was also afraid for his safety. The FPM leader told
Shuhhayyeb "In Lebanon there is no political security."


9. (C) The parliament might be able to pass the election
reform law, once submitted, Shuhhayyeb said. However, he
raised objections to the proportional representations
principles thought to be part of the suggested law as
submitted to the GOL. Shuhhayyeb said that any talk of
procedural reform on the election law could be easily done
after the districts were drawn to the satisfaction of
everyone. He was especially concerned that the Christians be
satisfied that a new law protects them. "Muslims will be
alright anywhere they are. But Christians have to know they
can select their own representatives."


10. (C) Saad Hariri was still an inexperienced politician,
according to Shuhhayyeb. "He has only been in politics for
six months. But he is learning." Shuhhayyeb said that Hariri
depends on the Saudis, whose ambassador to Lebanon Shuhhayyeb
described as a sincere admirer of Hizballah. The Saudis are
deeply worried about both stability in Syria and the Shia
threat to the region. Any deal they broker for Lebanon will
aim to satisfy their policy goals on these two issues.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Shuhhayyeb was neither disappointed nor angry at
the idea of Lahoud remaining in office. He had resigned
himself to the failure of March 14 to remove the President.
Hamdan was likewise resigned to the waning of his boss'
national dialogue. With both men, one got the feeling that
at the middle levels, Lebanese politics could now slip back
into its accustomed slumber if no outside force nudges it
back to waking. End comment.

BEIRUT 00000997 003 OF 003


FELTMAN