MGLE01: BLUE LINE TENSION BUILDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000860 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2016 TAGS: IS KPAL KPKO LE MOPS PTER SUBJECT: MGLE01: BLUE LINE TENSION BUILDS Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On March 20, UNIFIL Senior Adviser Milos Strugar told econoff that the Blue line was tense but quiet. He said that Israeli forces have raised their alert, but UNIFIL has not observed any of the unusual Hizballah military movements alleged by Israeli liaison. UNIFIL was more concerned that Palestinian armed groups based in Tyre would try to attack across the Blue Line in retaliation for last week's Jericho prison raid. The Lebanese Joint Security Force was cooperating with UNIFIL, according to Strugar. Separately, former UNIFIL spokesman and Hizballah expert Timur Goksel told econoff that Hizballah was more likely engaging in a psychological operation to keep Israeli forces in a perpetual state of high alert. He saw a minor shelling attack in Shebaa Farms as possible, but not the major attack discussed in press. End summary. BLUE LINE TENSE, BUT QUIET -------------- ¶2. (C) In a March 20 conversation, UNIFIL Senior Adviser Milos Strugar told econoff that the Blue Line is very tense and potentially "volatile" as reported in press. The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) has increased its alert level, according to Strugar. However, UNIFIL has not observed any irregular Hizballah military activity as mentioned in the Israeli press. Strugar said that he asked Israeli liaison to provide information on these alleged Hizballah movements, but Israeli liaison provided no specific details, such as when and where an attack could be expected, and gave no concrete evidence. ¶3. (C) Strugar said that UNIFIL is actually more concerned with a Palestinian attack across the Blue Line than a Hizballah attack. He said that Palestinians in Lebanon are angry at last week's IDF raid on a Jericho prison. UNIFIL is watching the approaches from Palestinian camps in the vicinity of Tyre. Strugar added that the Lebanese Joint Security Force (JSF) also expressed concerns about a Palestinian attack from Lebanon and is cooperating closely with UNIFIL. The JSF has set up additional checkpoints, especially along the coastal road from Tyre to Naqoura, according to Strugar. ¶4. (C) Despite the tension, the situation is relatively quiet along the Blue Line, according to Strugar. There was an exchange of flares over Rmaich on the night of March 16, but otherwise no shooting. Strugar said that Hizballah is continuing its military construction near the divided village of Ghajar. He noted increased Israeli military activity in the vicinity of Ghajar as well. HIZBALLAH EXPERT SUGGESTS PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATION -------------- ¶5. (C) In a separate discussion on March 20, former UNIFIL spokesman and AUB professor Timur Goksel told econoff that he doubted the IDF was correctly reading Hizballah intentions. His contacts in the south are telling him that uniformed Hizballah fighters are openly showing themselves near the Blue Line. Goksel judged this to be part of Hizballah's routine tactics of maintaining psychological pressure on Israeli forces by causing them to stay in a perpetual state of high alert. If Hizballah was truly planning a major attack, in Goksel's experience, it would not so blatantly show its forces. ¶6. (C) Goksel added that his sources close to Hizballah tell him that Hizballah is having trouble keeping its younger, more radical, rank-and-file fighters occupied. He opined that Hizballah would consider a routine, low-scale shelling attack on Israeli fortifications in the Shebaa Farms in the near future. These periodic attacks let off steam in Hizballah's ranks and tend to avoid any large-scale Israeli retaliation due to the low number of casualties. However, Goksel saw a massive Hizballah attack as discussed in the press as over-hyped. FELTMAN