MGLE01: FORMER AOUN ADVISER WONDERS: DID AOUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000845

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH
LONDON FOR TSOU
PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL PTER SY LE
SUBJECT: MGLE01: FORMER AOUN ADVISER WONDERS: DID AOUN
SHIFT TO THE "SYRIAN CAMP"?

REF: 05 BEIRUT 1995

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Christopher W. Murray. Reason: Secti
ons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Sami Nader, Michel Aoun's former advisor --
and ex-son-in-law -- accuses "the General" of having made a
deal with the Syrian regime in order to return from exile and
seek the presidency. Nader sees his own efforts at
cultivating better relations between Aoun's supporters and
the USG wasted with Aoun's recent agreement with Hizballah.
This is not the first time we have heard such accusations
against Aoun, but it is remarkable to hear them from someone
once so close to him. End summary.


2. (C) In a March 9 meeting, Sami Nader, formerly one of
Michel Aoun's closest advisors, expressed certainty that Aoun
has joined the "Syrian camp." Nader, who was the principal
author of the 2005 parliamentary election platform of Aoun's
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) (reftel),severed professional
as well as family ties with "the General" shortly after he
separated from Aoun's daughter last summer.


3. (C) Nader asserted that the Syrian regime, using
President Lahoud as an intermediary, facilitated Aoun's
return to Lebanon in May 2005, after over 14 years in exile.
This led Aoun -- once the fiercest critic of Syrian control
of Lebanon -- to progressively shift his position, adopting a
more conciliatory attitude toward the Syrian regime and
allying himself with pro-Syrian figures for the 2005
parliamentary elections. This change in Aoun,s behavior
culminated in his signing of a memorandum of understanding
with Hizballah in February.


4. (C) Nader said that the FPM's efforts at rapprochement
with the USG over the past two years have vanished into thin
air with Aoun's agreement with Nasrallah. "Had I still been
advising (Aoun),I would have never allowed him to make such
a move," Nader said, criticizing Aoun,s agreement with
Hizballah. He explained the agreement as a matter of Aoun,s
presidential ambitions.


5. (C) Nader said that this agreement served Hizballah more
than it did Aoun, giving Hizballah more "weight." Referring
to the seven-hour meeting between MP Sa'ad Hariri and
Nasrallah that took place one day before ongoing
parliamentary national dialogue talks began, Nader warned
that Nasrallah could broker a deal with Hariri any time,
abandoning Aoun in the process.


6. (C) To Nader's regret, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt "stole
our fight and our discourse by positioning himself as a
national leader after Aoun left the scene empty for him.8
Aoun should never have pulled out of the "March 14 forces,"
Nader argued, because Aoun is the driving force of Lebanon's
independence movement. That independence movement is the
natural place of the FPM, he said.


7. (C) Nader said he learned from sources in the Qornet
Shehwan Gathering, an alliance of Christian politicians
within the Hariri-led "March 14 forces," that Aoun had been
very silent during the first sessions of the national
dialogue talks, intervening in the discussion only when the
issue of Christian representation was raised.


8. (C) Comment: This is certainly not the first time we
have heard suspicions that Aoun sold out to the SARG and
Hizballah in his single-minded pursuit of the presidency.
But it is remarkable to hear this from a former close advisor
-- and family member -- of Aoun. Nader's current
relationship with his in-laws may well color what he thinks
and says about "the General," but we assume there is more
than personal bitterness behind his criticism. Even when he
was in Aoun's inner circle, Nader struck us as more
independent and open-minded than Aoun's other
son-in-law/advisor, Gebran Bassil (whom even one of Aoun's
MPs calls "his master's voice"). End comment.
MURRAY