MGLE01: ARMENIAN CHURCH PATRIARCH'S VIEWS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000745

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2016
TAGS: IS LE PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: MGLE01: ARMENIAN CHURCH PATRIARCH'S VIEWS ON
LEBANON'S POLITICAL SITUATION

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) The patriarch of the Armenian church in Lebanon,
Catholicos Aram I, believes the political situation has
improved significantly in the past week due to the opening of
the national dialogue. He concurred with his Maronite
counterpart, Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir, that Lahoud
has become a serious liability and must resign, but he also
criticized Sfeir for passivity on the issue. He urged the
U.S., as well as France and the EU, to continue their support
and advice to the national dialogue. The cleric disapproved
of Michel Aoun's recent "blessing" of Hizballah, because that
only gave Hizballah greater political leverage and indirectly
encouraged Iranian influence in Lebanon's affairs. He felt
it was important to preserve Lebanon's uniqueness in the Arab
world (i.e., its mixture of Armenian, Maronite, Druse and
Muslim influences) because this characteristic could assist
in the expansion of political liberalism in the region. End
summary.


2. (C) The patriarch of the small but influential Armenian
church received the Ambassador and POLOFF on March 8 at his
office in Antelias, north of Beirut. The patriarch is not
only the leader of the Armenian church in Lebanon, but also
exercises ecclesiastical authority over the far more numerous
members of the Armenian diaspora. Being outside Lebanon's
sectarian mainstream, his views on the political situation
are more objective than those who are deeply engaged in
political maneuvers.


3. (C) Catholicos Aram I stated his conviction that the
national dialogue conference currently taking place in Beirut
was "changing the psychology" of politics in Lebanon and had
defused much of the tension that had been building since the
political violence of February 5 and the large pro-reform
rally of February 14. The fact that all the principal
political factions were now gathered in one room, discussing
the international tribunal, relations with Syria, and the
implications of UNSCR 1559, was no small achievement.


4. (C) That being said, the leader of the Armenian church
believes that with regard to UNSCR 1559, the dialogue
conference should limit itself to resolving the issue of the
presidency. He maintained that trying to address all 1559
issues -- in particular, the arms of the Palestinian and
Hizballah militias -- was attempting too much, as none were
likely to be resolved, especially because regional
complications affected militia disarmament. The patriarch
was convinced that, despite the difficulties involved, a
solution to the discredited Lahoud presidency was possible
and worth a focused effort.

"LAHOUD IS A HOPELESS CASE"
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5. (C) Aram insisted he had told Lahoud to leave office on
March 14, 2005 and he regrets not having been more forceful.
But now he felt the Lahoud presidency had become untenable --
for the Christian community and the country. Aram said that
Lahoud was now only serving the Syrian regime and its
interests -- and had become a "hopeless case." Additionally,
Lahoud's continued occupancy of the office was allowing the
Sunni-led government to usurp executive power that
constitutionally belonged to the president (always a Maronite
under the country's confessional system). Like many other
Christian political leaders, Aram said that before the months
remaining in Lahoud's term were completed, the institution of
the presidency would in effect cease to exist, thereby
removing a key element in Lebanon's system of confessional
balance.


6. (C) He argued, therefore, that the most important goal
of the dialogue must be an agreement to change the president.
He understood this was a Lebanese decision, but he urged the
U.S. and France to "facilitate, challenge, and support" the
participants in the dialogue. Aram suggested that even Saudi
Arabia and Egypt could provide a beneficial influence to the
conferees, as long as it was done discreetly and in concert.

MARONITE RESPONSIBILITY
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7. (C) Even with international support, Aram conceded it
was up to the country's Christian community to put forth one
or more names for the presidency. Without this act of

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political bravery and commitment, Lebanon's other communities
could not be blamed for staying with the status quo. At this
point, the patriarch criticized his religious counterpart,
Nasrallah Sfeir, for fecklessness and lack of leadership.
Aram said he clearly understood the need for the Maronite
leader not to select specific names, but he insisted Sfeir
should be leading and encouraging his community's political
leaders to cease their incessant maneuvering and give the
dialogue's other members "two or three names" that could be
discussed and the consequences analyzed. Aram argued that
not even the arrogant Aoun could argue with this path. The
Armenian religious leader emphasized that while the next
president had to be an "authentic" Christian (i.e., not
chosen by Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt),he had to be
acceptable to the entire country, as otherwise, "we'll be
back in the same dead end we are now."


8. (C) While not declaring a candidate, because he said it
was not his right, Aram commented that an Aoun presidency
would be fraught with tension, primarily because he could
never work with Jumblatt, and would have an uneasy
relationship with Saad Hariri. He also criticized the new
"alliance" between Aoun and Nasrallah, saying that the former
general had unnecessarily given considerable leverage to
Hizballah, while receiving few concrete assurances in return.
According to the Armenian patriarch, even though an Aoun
presidency would save the institution and restore a balance
of executive authority, it would be a stressful period. Aram
expressed his hope that a more "inclusive" candidate could be
found, who would preserve the liberal character of the
country, which in turn would have a long-term beneficial
effect on the region.
FELTMAN