MGLE01: SEVENTH SESSION OF NATIONAL DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000673

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PINS PHUM KPAL KISL LE SY IR
SUBJECT: MGLE01: SEVENTH SESSION OF NATIONAL DIALOGUE
TAKES ON PALESTINIAN ARMS ISSUE


Classified By: JEFFREY FELTMAN, AMBASSADOR. REASON: SECTION 1.4 (B)


1. (SBU) Participants in the national dialogue, perhaps
cowed by accusations of leaks to the press, have become more
reticent in presenting their accounts of the March 7 session
of the talks, which ended in the late afternoon. MP and
Minister of Defense Michel Murr said that the early debate
focused on the issue of the Palestinian weapons, as well as
the issue of leaking minutes of meetings to the press. Murr
said there was an agreement not to disclose anything to the
press. According to Murr, there was unanimous agreement on
the need to solve the issue of Palestinian weapons. He said
that participants agreed on disarming the Palestinian
factions outside the camps and on "organizing" weapons inside
the camps. Murr said that this was basically in line of a
ministerial decision taken by the Siniora government a month
or two ago. (Note: The general consensus has been that once
weapons are under the reliable control of a responsible
Palestinian group, they are "organized" sufficiently. End
note).


2. (C) MP Elie Skaff, who is attending the sessions, said
that participants have set a six-month deadline to conclude
the disarmament of the Palestinian factions. Skaff said that
the government will enter into negotiations with the
Palestinians to implement this decision. Skaff added that
Hizballah and Amal pledged to use their good offices with the
factions to achieve this goal. However, Skaff expressed
skepticism saying that all agreements reached thus far could
be blown away in case there is a disagreement over the
presidency. Skaff said that Hizballah is making concessions,
but when the issue of the presidency comes to the table,
Hizballah might become more inflexible, because Hizballah
will feel their concessions to date have not been
reciprocated by the March 14 group.


3. (C) Gebran Bassil, aide to presidential hopeful Michel
Aoun, said that the March 14 group insists on agreement on
replacing President Lahoud before discussing any other order
of business. General agreement on broad issues is easy
enough to achieve, but the presidency remains the major
stumbling block in discussions. However, the same
negotiators refuse to discuss the post-Lahoud presidency in
the present forum. Speaking privately with PolChief, Bassil
said his bloc would remain inflexible in the face of March 14
insistence to ignore other issues. He said that although no
one in the room has mentioned the names of presidential
candidates, he believes they are doing everything in their
power to forestall a possible Michel Aoun presidency.

COMMENT
--------------


4. (C) To date the national dialogue appears to have
achieved three key things: 1) It has brought the parties to
the table in Lebanon, including those such as Michel Aoun who
have complained that the Siniora-led government is
uninterested in anyone's views but its own ; 2) it has eased
the tension created by the March 14 deadline for President
Lahoud's resignation as announced by the March 14 group; and
3) it has brought Hizballah to the table as a Lebanese
organization discussing Lebanese issues on a nationalist,
rather than pan-Shia basis. The unresolved issue of the
presidency and the disarmament of Hizballah will most likely
not be resolved by this body in its one-week lifespan. But
this good start to a national political dialogue has given an
optimistic air to Lebanese political commentary, both in the
street and in the salons. End comment.
FELTMAN