MGLE01: SEVENTH SESSION OF NATIONAL DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000673 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2016 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PINS PHUM KPAL KISL LE SY IR SUBJECT: MGLE01: SEVENTH SESSION OF NATIONAL DIALOGUE TAKES ON PALESTINIAN ARMS ISSUE Classified By: JEFFREY FELTMAN, AMBASSADOR. REASON: SECTION 1.4 (B) ¶1. (SBU) Participants in the national dialogue, perhaps cowed by accusations of leaks to the press, have become more reticent in presenting their accounts of the March 7 session of the talks, which ended in the late afternoon. MP and Minister of Defense Michel Murr said that the early debate focused on the issue of the Palestinian weapons, as well as the issue of leaking minutes of meetings to the press. Murr said there was an agreement not to disclose anything to the press. According to Murr, there was unanimous agreement on the need to solve the issue of Palestinian weapons. He said that participants agreed on disarming the Palestinian factions outside the camps and on "organizing" weapons inside the camps. Murr said that this was basically in line of a ministerial decision taken by the Siniora government a month or two ago. (Note: The general consensus has been that once weapons are under the reliable control of a responsible Palestinian group, they are "organized" sufficiently. End note). ¶2. (C) MP Elie Skaff, who is attending the sessions, said that participants have set a six-month deadline to conclude the disarmament of the Palestinian factions. Skaff said that the government will enter into negotiations with the Palestinians to implement this decision. Skaff added that Hizballah and Amal pledged to use their good offices with the factions to achieve this goal. However, Skaff expressed skepticism saying that all agreements reached thus far could be blown away in case there is a disagreement over the presidency. Skaff said that Hizballah is making concessions, but when the issue of the presidency comes to the table, Hizballah might become more inflexible, because Hizballah will feel their concessions to date have not been reciprocated by the March 14 group. ¶3. (C) Gebran Bassil, aide to presidential hopeful Michel Aoun, said that the March 14 group insists on agreement on replacing President Lahoud before discussing any other order of business. General agreement on broad issues is easy enough to achieve, but the presidency remains the major stumbling block in discussions. However, the same negotiators refuse to discuss the post-Lahoud presidency in the present forum. Speaking privately with PolChief, Bassil said his bloc would remain inflexible in the face of March 14 insistence to ignore other issues. He said that although no one in the room has mentioned the names of presidential candidates, he believes they are doing everything in their power to forestall a possible Michel Aoun presidency. COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) To date the national dialogue appears to have achieved three key things: 1) It has brought the parties to the table in Lebanon, including those such as Michel Aoun who have complained that the Siniora-led government is uninterested in anyone's views but its own ; 2) it has eased the tension created by the March 14 deadline for President Lahoud's resignation as announced by the March 14 group; and 3) it has brought Hizballah to the table as a Lebanese organization discussing Lebanese issues on a nationalist, rather than pan-Shia basis. The unresolved issue of the presidency and the disarmament of Hizballah will most likely not be resolved by this body in its one-week lifespan. But this good start to a national political dialogue has given an optimistic air to Lebanese political commentary, both in the street and in the salons. End comment. FELTMAN