MGLE01: TRIPOLI ACADEMIC AND MAYOR PLACE BLAME ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000487 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WERNER/SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2016 TAGS: KISL LE PGOV SOCI SY SUBJECT: MGLE01: TRIPOLI ACADEMIC AND MAYOR PLACE BLAME ON HARIRI FOR FEB. 5 RIOT REF: 05 BEIRUT 3479 Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4(d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Sunni professor from Tripoli Nawwaf Kabbarah told econoff February 15 that MP Saad Hariri had enlisted the help of the Jamiyeh Islamiyya (Muslim Brotherhood) in recruiting protesters from Tripoli's poor neighborhoods for the February 5 protest at the Danish consulate. The result of this bargain was well-organized violence that Hariri should have anticipated, according to Kabbarah. He said that most Tripolitans reacted critically to the ensuing riot and form a "silent majority" against radical Islam. Kabbarah said that the Hariri family's and central government's neglect of Tripoli since the end of the civil war helped create ample recruiting grounds for young thugs. Separately, Mayor of Tripoli Rachid Jamali also said that Hariri has failed to deliver GOL help for his city. Jamali said that young thugs can be recruited to participate in demonstrations for twenty dollars a day. On a related issue, Kabbarah dismissed rumors that Hariri was building a militia in the north. He confirmed that Chritian politician and former minister Suleiman Franjiyah maintained some form of a militia, but said it was directed against his Christian rivals, the Lebanese Forces, and not against Tripoli's Sunnis. End summary. HARIRI'S DEAL WITH JAMIYEH ISLAMIYYA -------------- ¶2. (C) On February 15, econoff met with Dr. Nawwaf Kabbarah, a Sunni professor and an unsuccessful parliamentary candidate from Tripoli (Kabbarah was defeated by the Hariri alliance). Kabbarah said that it was believed in Tripoli that MP Saad Hariri should have anticipated that the demonstrators he helped fund for February 5 demonstration in front of the Danish consulate, could have turned to violence. Jamiyeh Islamiyya (the Muslim Brotherhood) provided the manpower from Tripoli for Hariri, according to Kabbarah. He explained that the Brotherhood decided to link itself to Hariri once the Syrian occupation ended, and in doing so had dropped its alliance with northern, pro-Syrian, Sunni big-wig Omar Karami's clan before last year's elections. ¶3. (C) Kabbarah explained that the Brotherhood is well-organized in the poor Tripoli neighborhoods of Bab al-Tibbaneh and Abu Sabra. Abu Sabra is slightly more prosperous than Bab al-Tibbaneh, but the lower middle class residents are traditionally conservative Islamists. In addition, Abu Sabra has seen a rise in immigration from Ad-Dinniyeh in northern Lebanon, an area notorious for radical Sunni Islamists. In Kabbarah's analysis, it was clear that violence was the Brotherhood's objective in the Feb. 5 demonstration. He said that Hariri should have known that a Sunni Islamist demonstration in the Christian neighborhood of Ashrafiyeh would be perceived by the rest of Lebanon as an "invasion." FORGOTTEN TRIPOLI PROVIDES EASY RECRUITING GROUND FOR THUGS -------------- ¶4. (C) The vast majority of Tripolitans reacted with anger against the riot their fellow citizens took part in, according to Kabbarah. Outside of Bab al-Tibbaneh and Abu Sabra, most Sunni Muslims in Tripoli reject radical Islam and prefer moderation and modernization. Kabbarah had seen very little reaction in Tripoli to the cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed. It is just not seen as a big deal. Kabbarah explained that most Tripolitans formed a "silent majority" that usually chooses Hariri's candidates in elections. Their voice is heard on election day, but the rest of the time most Tripolitans are reluctant to confront the radical Sunni elements in their city. The Muslim Brotherhood's Political Office Chief Assad Harmuch gave a conciliatory speech at Hariri's February 14 rally in Beirut in part to reassure the "silent majority" in Tripoli, according to Kabbarah. ¶5. (C) Kabbarah said that Tripoli's poor neighborhoods provide ample recruiting ground for thugs and rabble rousers for demonstrations. Unemployment, poverty, and a high crime BEIRUT 00000487 002 OF 002 rate make hundreds of angry young men available for radical Islamic protests (reftel). Hariri was stupid to think that he could allow the Brotherhood to recruit this element without the demonstration resulting in violence, commented Kabbarah. The Muslim Brotherhood is the same group that organized a protest that drove an Italian silent theater group out of Tripoli last year (reftel). He added that the violence was a natural product of the late Rafiq Hariri's negligence of Tripoli. Rafiq Hariri involved himself in Tripoli's affairs only during elections, a practice continued by Saad Hariri. Tripolitans note the amount of money invested in downtown Beirut and, at the same time, the dearth of GOL development funding in Lebanon's second largest city. The Hariris have long catered to the Sunni middle class but have forgotten the Sunni poor, concluded Kabbarah. ¶6. (C) Separately, Mayor of Tripoli Rachid Jamali told polstaff that the Hariri family's neglect of Tripoli was to blame for the Feb. 5 riots. "Where are the government projects for Tripoli?", asked Jamali rhetorically. It is natural then, that such a violent element could be so easily recruited to wreak havoc in a predominantly Christian neighborhood. According to Jamali, the going rate to hire a local young thug for protests was twenty dollars a day plus transportation and food. It is very easy to recruit local youths off the streets, said Jamali. RUMORS OF MILITIAS IN THE NORTH -------------- ¶7. (C) Switching to a related topic, Kabbarah dismissed rumors that Hariri was training his own militia in the north. He explained that the Hariri family has never operated a militia before, and Hariri's constituents are not fighters. Hariri has never needed a militia because he can throw money and his impressive propaganda machine at any problem. The only Sunni Muslims with arms are the pro-Syrian Islamist factions in the north. They are small, fractured, and only lightly armed, said Kabbarah. ¶8. (C) Kabbarah knows northern Christian feudal lord Sulieman Franjiyah well (he ran with him on Michel Aoun's list in last year's parliamentary elections) and he believes that Franjiyah started the rumors that Hariri was raising a militia. Kabbarah met with Franjiyah last week and found that Franjiyah felt slighted by Hariri. Franjiyah said that when he visits Syrian President Bashar al-Asad, Asad greets him at the front of his house in a sign of respect. However, Hariri waits for visitors to enter his house and lets them wait, a gesture Franjiyah perceived as arrogant and disrespectful. Kabbarah said that Franjiyah does have some form of a militia in the Zghorta area, but did not see it as an inter-confessional problem, but rather an intra-confessional one. Sunnis in nearby Tripoli do not see Franjiyah's Marada militia as a threat to them. Rather, Kabbarah explained, Franjiyah maintains the Marada militia with the threat of Samir Ja'ja''s Lebanese Forces in mind. Ja'Ja''s main powerbase in the mountains is not far from Franjiyah's stronghold. FELTMAN