LEBANON: GEMAYEL ANNOUNCES HIS PLANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003891 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING, STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO: ATACHCO E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: GEMAYEL ANNOUNCES HIS PLANS Classified By: DCM Christopher W. Murray. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) an d (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On 18 December Codel Dodd met with former Lebanese President Amin Gemayel to discuss the current situation in Lebanon. Gemayel told the Codel that Lebanon needs the support of the United States, and that Syria must be pressured to stop supporting instability in Lebanon. In Gemayel,s view, Iran is not a major player in the instability in Lebanon, and is in fact reaching out to promote business ties with Lebanon. He also observed that Israel could help stabilize the country by taking away Hizballah,s &raison d,etre.8 Finally, Gemayel revealed his plans to run for Parliament in the by-election to fill the seat vacated by the death of his son Pierre. End summary. CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION -------------- ¶2. (U) On December 18 Senators Christopher Dodd and John Kerry met with former Lebanese President Amin Gemayel at Gemayel,s residence in Beirut. Gemayel told the Codel that Lebanon,s violence and assassinations, including that of his son Pierre, were &along the same line8 as the violence inflicted upon the U.S. on September 11, 2001. All were committed by the &same forms of evil.8 He believed that the U.S. and Lebanon share similar values of freedom and democracy, and told the Codel that Lebanon needs the support of the U.S. in this time of crisis. He was grateful to have received condolences from friends in the U.S. He said he greatly appreciated Congressional support for continued commitment to Lebanon, and said he was reassured that this support appeared to be bipartisan. Kerry affirmed Gemayel,s impressions. ¶3. (C) Senator Kerry asked for an assessment of the proposed Special Tribunal to prosecute those suspected of the Hariri assassination. He also asked about reconciliation among Lebanon,s political factions. Gemayel replied that for reconciliation to occur, pressure had to be applied to Syria and Iran. Those countries were preventing reconciliation. Progress had been impeded by Syria,s desire to block the Tribunal. Syria,s strategy on the Tribunal includes using the political opposition in Lebanon to prevent the Tribunal documents from being ratified by the Parliament, 
as well as mobilizing opposition to the Tribunal in the UN Security Council. This kind of obstruction is not unprecedented, Gemayel said, since he had seen it when as President of Lebanon he had tried to obtain a ceasefire during the civil war in Lebanon. Syria then had blocked attempts to achieve the ceasefire. ¶4. (C) Domestic reconciliation and inauguration of the Tribunal are being hampered by Lebanese politicians loyal to Syria, such as President Emile Lahoud. Gemayel told the Codel that Lahoud had been imposed on Lebanon by Syria, and that other politicians, such as Nabih Berri, while a &good guy,8 were being &held hostage8 by Syria,s influence. He stated that Syria still controls one-third of the Lebanese parliament, and can thus block major legislation that Syria itself does not approve. ¶5. (U) Gemayel pointed out that his family has suffered a great deal personally due to the violence in Lebanon. He told the Codel that five members of his family, including his son Pierre and a 2-year old niece of his own, have been victims of assassination. As Gemayel,s wife observed, &We have paid a high price for sharing what you believe in.8 MOVING FORWARD -------------- ¶6. (C) Gemayel, when asked how things could move forward, replied that Israel could play a key role in helping resolve the internal crisis in Lebanon. In his opinion, Israel could do much to weaken Hizballah by removing its very reason for existing. One of Hizballah,s &raisons d,etre8 is the liberation of Lebanese lands in the hands of Israel. Were Israel to place Sheba'a Farms under UN control, this would help the situation. Israel could also contribute by working to resolve the issues of prisoners, and ceasing its military overflights of Lebanese territory. BEIRUT 00003891 002 OF 003 SYRIA -------------- ¶7. (C) When asked about Syria, Gemayel observed that Syria and Iran have strong ties between them, both cultural and economic. Syria does not want to &go alone.8 Syria must feel real pressure and determination from the West, or it will not act. When Senator Dodd observed that the U.S. is unlikely to use force to apply such pressure, Gemayel stated that he believed that economic and diplomatic pressure on Syria was the best way forward. ¶8. (C) Gemayel thought that Syria is isolated. Even Saudi Arabia, which had strong ties to Damascus at one time, is not as close to the regime of Bashar Al-Asad as it had been to that of his father. Because of its isolation, Syria is not feeling strong. Asad is desperate for reconciliation with other nations in the region because many nations in the Middle East feel that he is encouraging the Shia, though he is himself Alawite. Syria is using Hizballah as a "tool in the hand of Asad,8 and has supported Hizballah since the mid 1980s. Hizballah is indebted to Syria due to the large amount of logistical support that Syria has provided over the years. Syria has been able to manipulate Hizballah by infiltrating it, and Hizballah has felt compelled to serve Syrian interests. Gemayel revealed that he had met with various members of the Hizballah leadership to try to convince them that it was in their interest to preserve Lebanon as a democracy. He admitted that these efforts were without apparent success. Syria has adopted a policy of creating chaos and instability in Lebanon, and has acted to block the creation of effective institutions within Lebanon. This is the outcome of 30 years of Syrian dominance. ¶9. (C) Senator Kerry asked Gemayel if there was a way to counter Syria,s support of the insurgents in Iraq by working with the Sunni population in Syria. Gemayel replied that when Hafez Al-Asad was been in power, Asad senior had installed a tough security structure throughout the country. With that in mind, the Sunni population in Syria could be counted upon to remain passive. The impending Special Tribunal, however, could shake the foundations and legitimacy of the regime in Damascus. IRAN -------------- ¶10. (C) Gemayel, in contrast to his views on Syria, was more positive about Iran. Iran,s interests, he said, were the &opposite8 of those of Syria in Lebanon. Gemayel believed that with Syria,s help, Iran was able to gain access to the parliament by having pro-Iranian candidates elected to it. This was an important achievement. If the chaos in Lebanon continues, Iran could lose what it has gained in Lebanon. Thus it is not in Iran,s interest to see the chaos continue. As evidence of Iran,s worries about the crisis in Lebanon, Gemayel revealed that since the time the crisis had begun, the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon had visited him twice. He noted that the Iranian embassy was actively trying to promote business relationships with Lebanon. But despite the Iranian interest in closer ties with Lebanon, Iran will not support the Special Tribunal if the Tribunal were seen to put the Syrian regime in danger. SAUDI ARABIA -------------- ¶11. (C) Gemayel did not think the Saudi regime would have much of a role to play vis--vis Syria because of its own domestic problems. The Saudis had close ties to Syria at one time, but that relationship had deteriorated under President Bashar al-Asad,s rule. LEBANESE )U.S. RELATIONS -------------- ¶12. (C) Dodd suggested that one of the problems he saw in the region was a lack of U.S. attention during the past six years. He added that dealing with this region takes &a lot of work,8 and that the U.S. had &fallen off the bike8 in dealing with the Middle East. Gemayel replied that it was important now that the U.S. not give the impression that it was shifting policy or showing weakness in dealing with Syria. The U.S. must show that it is determined to go all the way, with no compromise in achieving its goals in the region. BEIRUT 00003891 003 OF 003 PERSONAL FUTURE -------------- ¶13. (C) Gemayel told the Codel that he had been happy to step back from politics and &pass the torch8 to his son Pierre. However, Pierre, in his death, had passed the torch back to the father. Therefore, Gemayel felt that he had no choice but to run for the Parliamentary seat that his son had occupied. He would thus stand for Parliament in the next by-election. He told the Codel that he was &fully engaged8 with Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, Fouad Sinoria, and other leaders of the March 14 movement. He showed the Codel evidence of his Kata,eb political party,s growth by holding out a newspaper story, with photographs, that described a ceremony in which 4,000 new members had joined his party. ¶14. (U) This cable has not been cleared by Codel Dodd. FELTMAN