LEBANON: HARIRI TALKS ABOUT WAYS TO ENGAGE SYRIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003874

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HARIRI TALKS ABOUT WAYS TO ENGAGE SYRIA


Classified By: Charge Christopher W. Murray. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Sa'ad Hariri, without his usual call for a Syrian
regime change, indicated that he believes the real goal of
Syria and Iran is to thwart UNSCR 1701. He believes that
Syria should have been engaged after its pullout from
Lebanon, but through one voice, probably that of the UN.
Like many other Lebanese, he thinks that the Turks are the
only force that can control Syria. End summary.

SYRIAN ENGAGEMENT MIGHT
HAVE BEEN VALUABLE EARLIER
--------------


2. (C) Meeting with Codel Bill Nelson and the Ambassador on
December 14, a somewhat subdued MP Sa'ad Hariri offered his
view of the current difficult situation. Although he
regularly calls for a Syrian regime change, this time he
voiced the disappointment felt through the Arab world when
Bashar al-Asad did not live up to the hopes raised when he, a
Western-educated member of the younger generation, succeeded
his father as ruler of Syria. Nevertheless Hariri suggested
that it might have been better if at the time of the Syrian
withdrawal from Lebanon the rest of the world had engaged
Syria, at a time when the Syrians already perceived
themselves to be a target. A policy of engagement, through
one channel, possibly that of the United Nations, would have
been best. In his opinion, the current visits to Syria by
U.S. and EU officials, despite the strong messages they have
delivered, are seen in Syria as a sign of weakness. The
Syrians are not logical thinkers.


3. (C) Hariri suggested that one possible policy would be
for the U.S. to coordinate its strategy with its allies and
talk to Asad with one voice now, pushing Syria now that there
is a chance to re-engage. He fears that the envoys are
becoming hostages to Syria, and wondered what would member
countries do if UNIFIL troops were harmed. A coordinated
approach to let Syria know what would happen if it supports
attacks against the UNIFIL troops would be helpful.
Enforcement of UNSCR 1701 will bring stability for the future.

WHAT DO IRAN AND SYRIA
REALLY WANT?
--------------


4. (C) Hariri says that he believes the real objective of
Iran, Syria, and by inference Hizballah, is the failure of
UNSCR 1701, rather than the failure of the international
tribunal. Characterizing Hizballah as a one-time infant who
is now an adult, he said that 1701 "handcuffed" Hizballah.
Today the goal of Syria and Iran is to cripple the Siniora
government and to stop the implementation of 1701. In
addition, the Iranians want to make Jerusalem and the
Palestinians their cause, not because they care about Israel,
but in order to oppose the Saudis.

WHAT DO THEY REALLY NEED?
--------------


5. (C) The Syrians only respond to a show of force, in
Hariri's opinion, and he related two anecdotes, one involving
the French and the other the Turks, where Syria reacted very
quickly to halt bombings in Paris and responded promptly upon
the Turks' massing of troops along the Turkish-Syrian border.
The Turks might be able to control the Syrians now. While
offering no comment directly on Nelson's remarks, which were
a repetition of what he had publicly said earlier, that he
had exchanged "sharp words" with Asad, Hariri did not condemn
U.S. moves towards engagement with Syria. Hariri believes
that no one in Lebanon wants the Syrians to return. But
right now neither the Syrians nor the Iranians are worried,
because they don't face any real challenges.

HELP THE ARMY
--------------


6. (C) If Syria is Hariri's number two concern, the first
consideration would go toward strengthening the army, which
Hariri characterizes as well-trained but ill-equipped. He
has always asked the USG for help, so that the ARMY can "show
teeth." Meanwhile Syria and Iran represent "money, weapons,
intelligence, and fighters" coming into both the north and

BEIRUT 00003874 002 OF 002


south of Lebanon, as well as into Iraq and to Hamas.


7. (SBU) This cable has been cleared by Codel Nelson.


MURRAY