LEBANON: AOUN ADVISOR URGES THE GENERAL'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 003819 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2016 TAGS: IS LE PGOV PREL PTER SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN ADVISOR URGES THE GENERAL'S INCLUSION IN TALKS Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (b). ¶1. (C) Moderate Aounist MP Ibrahim Kanaan argued that Michel Aoun remains pro-reform and pro-democratic, despite his on-going political alliance with Hizballah and the anti-government March 8 coalition. He urged that as diplomatic initiatives to resolve the crisis accelerate, Michel Aoun not be excluded "once again" in a clear reference to the July 2005 formation of the Siniora government. As an indication of his utility, MP Kanaan stated that Aoun was supportive of Maronite Patriarch Sfeir's recent efforts to resolve the deep conflict, but felt that the Patriarch's plan did not go far enough in addressing the many interlinked issues dividing Lebanon's electorate. ¶2. (C) MP Kanaan indicated the Free Patriotic Movement now has several streams of thought on how to proceed when he said the closed party meeting last Monday evening was the scene of vigorous debate on the course of the demonstrations and what should be the movement's next steps. The FPM moderate acknowledged that Hassan Nasrallah's overheated language on Thursday evening and the vindictive charges levied during Sunday's mass rally in Riad Solh Square had further polarized the situation and tried to argue that most FPM supporters had disassociated themselves from the more inflammatory charges. As a result of these undesirable developments, Kanaan proposed what in essence would be a truce. ¶3. (C) As a first step, Kanaan said that he, as representative of the FPM, and MP George Adwan, standing in for Samir Ja'ja's Lebanese Forces, would sign an agreement this weekend under the auspices of Patriarch Sfeir that would enjoin the respective parties from egregious criticisms against the other with the intent to create a more acceptable climate for negotiation. This badly needed step would be followed by a readiness by Michel Aoun to enter into talks without prejudice. ¶4. (C) According to this close advisor, Aoun is keenly interested in the developing Amr Moussa initiative and believes it could provide an "acceptable" exit from a critical situation (even though Kanaan did appear to appreciate the irony that Aoun himself had helped create the crisis). As Michel Aoun himself has emphasized in many meetings, Kanaan argued that as the leading Maronite political figure in Lebanon it was inconceivable that any negotiations on the future of the government would take place without the former general's participation, especially when the leading emissary was Secretary General of the Arab League, who Kanaan implied would not be overly concerned with Maronite interests. Kanaan made an urgent request that Aoun be included and even suggested that his position as "an equal" to Nasrallah would make him a more reliable and persuasive conduit to the leader of Hizballah than would the always difficult-to-decipher Nabih Berri. ¶5. (C) In closing, MP Kanaan said "don't let our alliance of necessity with Hizballah blind you" to the importance of allowing Aoun to act in his capacity as the "acknowledged leader" of Lebanon's Christian community. He claimed that FPM's difficult leader would surprise many skeptics, if he was allowed to participate fully and in accordance with his "undeniable" popular support. Kanaan insisted that Michel Aoun was ready and willing to enter into "real" negotiations at any time, either with PM Siniora himself or through the offices of the SYG Amr Moussa. FELTMAN