DEFMIN MURR BELIEVES NASRALLAH MISCALCULATED BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003800

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2026
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: DEFMIN MURR BELIEVES NASRALLAH MISCALCULATED BUT
INABILITY TO BACK DOWN DANGEROUS

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Murr
believes that Hassan Nasrallah realizes that he miscalculated
regarding the determination of the Siniora cabinet, the
fortitude of the LAF, the attitude of the Sunnis, and the
attitude of the Christians. But, unable to back down and
maintain his appearance of invincibility to his followers,
Nasrallah is likely to resort to more dangerous methods now
to bring "victory" to his followers. While expecting that
central Beirut will not fall prey to violent demonstrations
in coming days, Murr predicts Hizballah-Aoun attempts to shut
down the country economically. He claimed to have
contingency plans in place to rescue PM Siniora and his
ministers, should that be necessary, as well as protect the
Embassy. Murr dismissed rumors of declarations of martial
law or the potential for a military coup d'etat. But he
predicted a lengthy, worrying crisis accompanied by waves of
violence provoked by Syrian-sponsored terrorists. End
summary.

NASRALLAH'S FOUR MISCALCULATIONS
--------------


2. (C) In a one-on-one meeting with the Ambassador on the
evening of 12/8, Murr (wincing while he walked and claiming
that recent surgery to extract more shrapnel from the 7/12/05
assassination attempt against him explains his much-remarked
upon absence from informal cabinet meetings at the Grand
Serail) said that Hizballah Secretary General Hassan
Nasrallah's unusually belligerent speech the night before
stemmed from Nasrallah's recognition that he had made four
miscalculations: Nasrallah counted on quick collapse of the
Siniora cabinet, quick collapse of the Lebanese Armed Forces,
large mobilization of pro-Syrian and pro-Aoun Christians, and
large mobilization of pro-Syrian Sunnis. All proved to be
faulty predictions.

NASRALLAH'S BELLIGERENT SPEECH OFFENDS
EVEN PRO-SYRIAN SUNNIS, AOUNISTS
--------------


3. (C) None of this materialized, Murr argued, and
Nasrallah is now angry and desperate. Yet Nasrallah's 12/7
speech was curiously counterproductive, as its threatening
language make it "political suicide" for pro-Syrian Sunnis
like Omar Karami, who would be a natural ally of Hizballah in
an effort to kick Fouad Siniora out of the Grand Serail, to
associate himself with the current demonstrations. While
Michel Aoun (who immediately praised Nasrallah's speech) will
"never wake up from his fantasy," Aounists, too, are becoming
disaffected with the direction Nasrallah is taking them.
Murr claimed that the Armenian Tashnaq party, with two
deputies, is already in negotiations with March 14 forces
about dropping their parliamentary alliance with Aoun's bloc,
and the Tashnaq has stayed out of the Riad Solh Square
demonstrations. Nasrallah's claims of a cross-sectarian
campaign against an illegitimate cabinet are looking
increasingly hollow, Murr noted.

NASRALLAH MORE DANGEROUS,
AS HE CANNOT LOSE THIS BATTLE
--------------


4. (C) The trouble, Murr said, is that Hizballah's
miscalculation is likely to make the situation more
dangerous, not less. If Nasrallah backs down, he loses
credibility. He promised his followers a victory against
Siniora's cabinet, and he cannot maintain his air of
invincibility if his fails now. Nasrallah cannot permit
decline of his authority and prestige, so he will promote
chaos to disguise his miscalculations. Even though he will
have to rely increasingly on one-color Shia demonstrators,
Nasrallah will try to shut down the country economically,
probably starting Monday. Murr did not expect the mass rally
called for Sunday to turn violent, "but you never know."
Instead, the violence will be designed to break out (as it
has so far) elsewhere, where Sunnis or Druse and Shia come
into contact with each other. Nasrallah will work to see
that more violent incidents occur, but in ways where
Hizballah does not appear directly responsible. Murr
predicted that Hizballah would use the Sunday rally to
organize rolling sit-ins and flying demonstrations aimed at

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crippling the economy as a way to replace the tool of mass
demonstrations that cannot be sustained indefinitely.
Nasrallah will also, Murr said (echoing what others have
said) soon order Shia civil servants to walk off their jobs.


CONFIDENCE THAT LAF CAN PROTECT
CABINET WHEN DEBATING TRIBUNAL
--------------


5. (C) While claiming that the army was approaching the end
of its ability to keep the calm because of physical fatigue
and exhaustion of supplies, Murr nonetheless expressed
confidence that the LAF would be able to maintain order on
Tuesday 12/12, when the cabinet is expected to meet to
approve the Special Tribunal for Lebanon documents. Asked
about the sensitivity of the day -- the one-year anniversary
of the assassination of Gibran Tueni (who, coincidentally,
was once married to Murr's sister) -- Murr said that he
recommended to his niece Nayla Tueni (who has taken on the
role of family spokesman regarding her murdered father) that
a different Orthodox church be used for the memorial mass, to
keep March 14 supporters away from central Beirut and the
Hizballah-Aoun demonstrators. Responding to the Ambassador's
comments that GOL officials saw the March 14 attendees at the
memorial mass as protection for the cabinet, Murr preferred
relying on the army, not March 14 "human shields," to protect
the cabinet ministers, which he thought the army could do.
The Ambassador asked whether March 8 demonstrators, a mere
two or three blocks from the cabinet hall, wouldn't see a
Tuesday cabinet session on the tribunal as an unacceptable
provocation and thus an irresistible target for
trouble-making, Murr responded, "trust me; we are ready."

(UNSPECIFIED) CONTINGENCY PLANS
TO RESCUE SINIORA, CABINET
--------------


6. (C) Asked by the Ambassador what the LAF contingency
plans were, should the Hizballah-Aoun demonstration overrun
the cabinet hall or the Grand Serail, Murr said that LAF
commandos were prepared to extract Siniora and his ministers.
He added that, while there was no indication of any
Hizballah-Aoun targeting against the U.S. Embassy, the LAF
also had contingency plans to protect our facilities. The
Ambassador asked about UNIFIL back-up support, an option Murr
said was neither necessary nor desirable, given how it would
then make UNIFIL, the deployment of which passed the cabinet
with Shia support, appear partisan and thus fair game for
attacks.


7. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the LAF, with Shia
officers and soldiers part of the confessionally mixed units,
would really use lethal power to prevent Shia masses from
physically attacking Siniora and the ministers. He noted
with concern LAF Commander Michel Sleiman's statement that
the army would remain "equal distance from both sides."
While the statement sounded reasonable in terms of keeping
opposing demonstrations from clashing, it also suggested that
the army would stand aside if GOL facilities, considered in
the hands of March 14, were attacked by Hizballah-Aoun
demonstrators. Murr shook his head. "The army will protect
the government," he insisted; "that's the first job of the
army." Pressing, the Ambassador said that he would expect
that Hizballah would order Shia officers and soldiers to
leave the army first, to demoralize and destabilized the LAF
in advance of any assault on the Grand Serail. Murr
expressed confidence that most Shia would not leave the army,
especially as Nabih Berri will quietly tell his Shia
followers, whom Murr claimed to be the bulk of Shia in the
army, to stay put. "Nabih doesn't want to split the army."


NO PLANS FOR MARTIAL LAW,
OR MILITARY COUP D'ETAT
--------------


8. (C) The Ambassador asked Murr about rumors circulating
in Lebanon that include versions regarding the declaration of
martial law and even the creation by LAF Commander Michel
Sleiman of a military government that would serve during a
transitory phase until new legislative elections were held.
Murr chuckled, claiming that none of the rumors were
accurate. PM Siniora, he revealed, had indeed talked with
him about a contingency plan to declare a state of emergency,
should the situation get out of hand. This would permit the

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LAF to impose and enforce curfews and take other measures to
restore public order. But this step has two problems, Murr
argued, that make it unattractive. First, under Article 65
of the constitution, it would require two-thirds of the
cabinet to agree, and organizing and carrying out cabinet
meetings in such a situation where one needs to consider
seriously imposition of martial law would probably be
difficult. Second, given that the pro-Syrians and Aoun have
declared the cabinet illegitimate, the demonstrators would
probably disregard a state of emergency in any case or see it
as an excuse to escalate their actions. Murr brushed off the
Ambassador's questions about a potential military coup
d'etat, saying "it won't happen." The Ambassador noted that
some people are talking seriously that such a possibility is
under consideration by some close to Sleiman. "Not true,"
Murr insisted.

WORRIED THAT CRISIS WILL BE LONG,
WORSENED BY SYRIAN-SPONSORED TERRORISTS
--------------


9. (C) The Ambassador asked Murr how he expected the crisis
to evolve and be revolved. It will get far worse before it
gets better, Murr said, and any solution "will not be easy
and will not be quick." If March 14 remains united in
opposing a blocking minority to March 8-Aoun forces in the
cabinet, then Syria will order its allies to provoke chaos in
the country. Murr expressed deep worry that a
Syrian-sponsored al-Qaida operative will set off a bomb in
Riad Solh Square, provoking Shia outrage and rampages
throughout Lebanon. This will lead to waves of violence, he
said, which could be intensified by other Syrian-sponsored
suicide bombers. Murr urged that the international community
send a message to Syria that it will be held responsible for
any terrorist attacks in Lebanon, given that Syria has
actively recruited and facilitated movement of al-Qaida
operatives to Lebanon.

FELTMAN