LEBANON: LEBANESE FORCES MOVING TOWARD COUNTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 003789

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE SY IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: LEBANESE FORCES MOVING TOWARD COUNTER
DEMONSTRATIONS


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) One of the political advisors to Lebanese Forces
(LF) leader Samir Ja'ja' stated that the majority of LF's
leadership is angry at the unrelenting media coverage of the
anti-government street demonstrations that have taken place
since last Friday. Arguments that March 14 pro-government
forces must answer the Hizballah-FPM show of force are
becoming more persuasive to the leadership of the second most
important bloc in the country's Christian community. Samir
Ja'ja in particular feels that Nasrallah and Michel Aoun need
to be reminded that they are not the only leaders with
popular support in Lebanon. End Summary.


2. (C) Elie Khoury, a political advisor who has good ties
to the LF leadership, but who is not a member of the inner
circle, informed emboff on December 5 that Samir Ja'ja' is
receiving near unanimous advice from his party leadership
that the current display of Hizballah power is steadily
eroding support for the government, partly from intimidation,
but mostly due to political fatigue on the part of Lebanon's
citizenry, which is still trying to recover from the
debilitating July-August conflict.

FIGHTING THE IMAGE OF INEVITABILITY
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3. (C) According to Khoury, part of the frustration now
being felt by the Lebanese Forces stems from the fact that LF
MP George Adwan, with backing from Ja'ja', had been trying
"for months" to establish a dialogue with Michel Aoun and has
little to show for it. (Note: This assessment contrasts
with a description by Aounist MP Ibrahim Kanaan of the same
channel as effective and reliable. End note.) Samir Ja'ja'
has reportedly "had enough" of Hizballah-Aounist speeches
which rake Siniora and March 14 over the coals each night,
followed by one-sided "interviews" that give no indication of
a March 8 readiness to compromise. Ja'ja' is deeply
concerned that Lebanon and the world see only one force in
the streets -- leading to the logical conclusion that
pro-democratic forces are close to throwing in the towel.


4. (C) Even though Ja'ja' is convinced that his
arch-adversary Michel Aoun is blindly following Hizballah's
(and Syria's) guidance, Khoury said he is willing to back one
last March 14 effort to reach across the political divide.
But that effort should be made from a position of strength,
which can only be re-created by a show of force in the
streets of downtown Beirut. Khoury stated that for March 14
to enter into negotiations with its present passive posture
would almost guarantee the end of the pro-reform movement,
and with it, a democratic Lebanon.


5. (C) A message was passed to Ja'ja's advisor that if
March 14 felt compelled to take to the streets to counter the
increasingly confident Hizballah-Aounist bloc, it should
physically position its supporters far away from Riad Solh
Square and Martyr's Square. Khoury indicated he would pass
that advice to Ja'ja', but pointedly asked why Hizballah and
the "blindly ambitious" Aoun should "own" that highly
symbolic space.
FELTMAN