LEBANON: BISHOP AUDI FORESEES MAJOR CRISIS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003768

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: BISHOP AUDI FORESEES MAJOR CRISIS FOR
LEBANON'S CHRISTIANS

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a call on Greek Orthodox Bishop Metropolitan Elias
Audi, the Ambassador reiterated USG support for a Lebanon
free of foreign interference. Audi, more pessimistic than
ever before with the Ambassador, related that many Lebanese
fear a loss of international support, in particular due to
speculation in the region that the international community
may compromise Lebanon's sovereignty and interests to gain
Syrian cooperation on regional issues. This fear and a
coming Christian-Muslim split will compel many Christians to
leave Lebanon. Michel Aoun and his followers have completely
abandoned their principles and done an ideological about-face
in an effort to ride Hizballah's power to the presidential
palace. Hizballah, the real power in Lebanon, may be
unstoppable; their numbers, money, arms, the Christian cover
Aoun provides, and Nabih Berri's weakness allow Hizballah to
dictate to other Lebanese parties without listening in turn.
Meanwhile, of Greek Orthodox GOL figures, Ministers Mitri and
Murr will remain in the cabinet, Audi presumes, while
Minister Sarraf's departure was due to loyalty to President
Lahoud; finally, the President holds the final say over
Ambassador Chedid's taking up his post in Washington. End
Summary.

LEBANON DOUBTS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador called on Greek Orthodox Bishop
Metropolitan Elias Audi December 5. Polchief was notetaker.
The appointment had been made almost two weeks earlier,
before the beginning of the opposition March 8 movement,s
"sit-in" of Beirut,s central Riad al-Solh Square. The
Ambassador explained that he had made the appointment to
dispel speculation then circulating in Beirut that USG
support for the government of Prime Minister Siniora might be
flagging in the context of regional issues. The Ambassador
conveyed to Audi the Secretary,s assurances that USG support
for a Lebanon independent of Syrian interference remains
strong and will not change, and that the USG will continue to
hold Syria responsible for its behavior, including its
behavior with regard to Lebanon.


3. (C) Audi replied that he had been hearing speculation that
the USG might compromise its support for Lebanon,s
independence in the context of an opening to Syria to obtain
Damascus, support on other security issues in the region.
There are also those who believe that the ongoing March 8
protests aimed at bringing down the Siniora government could
not occur without a tacit USG approval. He said that he has
been asked by people to convey to the Ambassador that the USG
should pressure Syria not to interfere in Lebanon. It is
painful to feel that people do not trust the United States,
he added.


4. (C) The Ambassador noted that some Lebanese fear that the
USG will "sell them out" to Damascus. There are also those
who themselves want to turn back the clock to the days of
Syrian occupation, and theer are others who are confident of
the USG commitment to Lebanon's independence but still try,
for their own political ends, to convince others that we
might compromise Lebanon. The Ambassador emphasized that
Audi should not believe the rumors of a U.S. deal with Syria.
Audi responded that there are also Lebanese who fear that
the world may view Lebanon as a perpetual theater of conflict
and that the international community therefore dismisses
Lebanon as a hopeless case.


5. (C) The Ambassador said that Hizballah is exploiting a
mistaken perception that USG support for Lebanon is changing.
Audi agreed and said that he had heard some assert that the
USG and the Israeli government could have destroyed
Hizballah's weapons if they had wished to do so, but that
they intentionally left Hizballah in a position to make
trouble and destroy Lebanon's stability "because the Israeli
plan is not yet completed." The Ambassador vigorously denied
this and reiterated that the USG interest is in a stable,
prosperous and independent Lebanon.


BEIRUT 00003768 002 OF 003


CHRISTIANS TO FLEE
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6. (C) Such pessimism is most marked among Christians, Audi
asserted. Christians in general are afraid they will "lose"
Lebanon, a Lebanon in which they are accustomed to great
influence. They are afraid that they may end up being ruled
by Shiites, he added. "Shiites will put their hand on
Lebanon." Shiites can live from Iranian support, he said
(and added that in doing so, they can continue to sustain a
high birth rate) but Christians need economic stability and
good jobs, have no outside source of income, and could be
forced to emigrate in ever-greater numbers.


7. (C) The current tension will result in increased division
between Christians and Muslims, he predicted. Factional
leaders can disagree with each other, he said, but they
should do it away from the public eye. Tension and fear will
result in young people, especially Christians, fleeing the
country. He gave the example of the Greek Orthodox Church
school, in which 360 students were absent the previous day
because their parents worried about political tensions.

AOUN
--------------


8. (C) Those following Aoun are following Aoun the man, Audi
asserted, not any set of principles or ideology. "I don't
think he has principles or ideology," he added, "but he's
really just crazy about being president." While he is
putting on a good appearance of building bridges to Shiites,
he is not politically intelligent. He has no plan, and has
nothing to offer in his speeches except criticism of other
parties. Aoun has changed positions 180 degrees since his
return from France. "I can't build on his position because I
don't feel that he's handling the situation."


9. (C) The Ambassador agreed that it is amazing to see Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM) supporters cheering Hizballah
speakers in the square or for that matter, FPM leader and
Aoun son-in-law Gebran Bassil raising hands in triumph with
pro-Syrian Druze opposition leader Talal Arslan. Audi
confided to us (protect) that during a visit to the Bishop,
Bassil argued to him that Hizballah is "pure and clean" and
therefore worthy of support. Audi told Bassil that if he
sought to convince him of this it was a sign that he did not
respect Audi's intellect.

HIZBALLAH
--------------


10. (C) Hizballah, meanwhile, loves to have a Christian
cover. They are the power in Lebanon, Audi said, but they
don't want the world to see them taking over. "When I see
the images on TV of protesters in central Beirut, I see
Hizballah. They don't question anything" that Nasrallah
tells them to do, and they will do anything he asks. Audi
addressed this theme in a sermon, and received an
unprecedented number of phone calls, he said, from Christians
who thought he was talking about them, but it was Hizballah
supporters he meant.


11. (C) Audi allowed that he was concerned about the future
of Lebanon. "Hizballah won't go back; they're ascending, not
descending, because of their arms, money and numbers." Their
numbers are increasing, the army can't stop them, and
alternate Shia leader Berri is completely intimidated by
them. While Berri never had any affinity for Hizballah, he
averred, "now his hand is forced." Even President Lahoud, as
much as he is cursed by the Lebanese people, is in an
unenviable position as Hizballah and Syria's proxy, as he is
told to make each and every move that he makes.


12. (C) The Bishop added that Hizballah does not listen to
other parties, but only threatens. He had heard a number of
accounts of Shiites who felt too intimidated to express their
concerns about Hizballah. Audi felt that having an
interlocutor in the Shiite clergy who could reach Nasrallah
might help, but interfaith dialogue efforts were stalled.

GREEK ORTHODOX FIGURES IN THE GOL
--------------

BEIRUT 00003768 003 OF 003




13. (C) Audi speculated that former Environment Minister
Yaacoub Sarraf, a Greek Orthodox, had resigned from the
cabinet in November because of loyalty to President Lahoud,
who nominated him for the position when Siniora's cabinet was
forming in 2005. Sarraf had visited his Bishop and sung the
praises of Hizballah and Aoun, Audi recalled. Meanwhile,
co-religionists and fellow Lahoud appointees Tariq Mitri
(Culture Minister and acting Foreign Minister) and Elias Murr
(Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister) appear committed
to remain in the cabinet, Audi believed, despite Murr's
frequent absence from cabinet meetings, which Audi attributed
to health problems. Finally, Audi joined the Ambassador's
hope that Greek Orthodox Ambassador Antoine Chedid, appointed
Lebanese Ambassador to Washington, would be able to take up
his new post soon, though he conditioned that "it depends on
the President."

COMMENT
--------------


14. (C) The usually affable Audi was more depressed and
pessimistic than we have seen him in the last two-plus years.
Much of what he said echoes the convictions and fears of a
growing number of Lebanese that the U.S. is about to sell out
Lebanon to Syria in order to get Syria's support for Iraqi
stability. At one point in the conversation, Audi,
theatrically lifting his right arm off his chair, said that
people believe that the U.S. has lifted the pressure off
Syria and released the Syrians from the bind in which we had
held them in recent years. That, Audi said, is the only way
some people can explain the current March 8-Aoun
demonstrations downtown, that the U.S. eased up on Syria.
While we believe we made inroads in convincing Audi that U.S.
policy toward Syria and Lebanon has not changed, the debate
over the Iraq Study Group recommendations could not be coming
at a worse time for Lebanon's struggling pro-independence
movement. The perception of changed U.S. policy is nearly as
damaging as an actual change would be to the morale of March
14 leaders.
FELTMAN