LEBANON: CODEL HOEKSTRA MEETS WITH PM SINIORA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003755

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE SY IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: CODEL HOEKSTRA MEETS WITH PM SINIORA

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b
) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Prime Minister Siniora explained to Congressmen
Hoekstra and Issa that Syria has three immediate objectives:
destroy any chance for the Special Tribunal, regain its
former control of the Lebanese government, and re-establish
its past hegemony over the surrounding region. Siniora
stated that Hizballah's call for street protests this week is
the first step in Syria's plan to create political chaos,
which would allow it to steadily re-exert its control. As he
had discussed with U/S Fore the previous day, Siniora urged
the U.S. to support raising the issue of Shebaa Farms in the
Security Council to deal a serious blow to Syrian ambitions
in Lebanon. Senior Lebanese advisor Mohammad Chattah raised
a proposal that would link an agreement to transfer Shebaa to
UN control within one year contingent upon full
implementation of UNSCR 1701. Lastly, PM Siniora urged that
any U.S. dialogue with Syria be unequivocal about the need to
cease all interference in Lebanon. End summary.


2. (SBU) Congressmen Peter Hoekstra and Darrell Issa, along
with the Ambassador, met with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora at
the Grand Serail on November 29. Senior advisors Mohammad
Chattah and Rola Nouraddine also attended the meeting, as did
Congressional aide James Lewis and emboff. Appearing fully
at ease despite the imminent start of street demonstrations
by arch-adversary Hassan Nasrallah, PM Siniora emphasized
that his government enjoyed the support of a large majority
of Lebanon's electorate and would withstand Hizballah's call
for his government's resignation.


3. (C) In a straightforward manner, PM Siniora explained
that Iran and Syria were committed to reversing democratic
gains in Lebanon at all costs. At their behest, Hizballah
has embarked on a course they believe will produce political
chaos and a collapse of the only democratic government
Lebanon has experienced in the past 28 years. Specifically,
Siniora stated that if his government falls, it will be next
to impossible to form a new government because the
Syrian-controlled president will refuse to sign the necessary
formation decree. In his analysis, Iran wants Lebanon as a
bargaining chip with the West, while Syria fervently wants to
re-establish its complete control over a land it has never
considered as sovereign. And last but not least, Syrian
control would mean the end of the increasingly threatening
Special Tribunal to try suspects in the Hariri assassination
and other crimes.

RE-EMPHASIZING THE IMPORTANCE OF SHEBAA
--------------


4. (C) Similar to his discussion with U/S Henrietta Fore
the previous day, PM Siniora presented his reasons for moving
forward on the issue of Shebaa Farms. Describing it as
relatively small piece of territory with limited strategic
value for Israel, he said a decision by the UN to discuss the
matter would have great resonance in Lebanon. And rather
than being interpreted as a political victory for Hizballah,
it would be viewed by most Lebanese as an important
achievement by the moderate Siniora government.


5. (C) Siniora's senior advisor, Mohammad Chattah, with the
clear approval of Siniora, suggested that perhaps an
agreement could be reached that would predicate the transfer
of Shebaa to UN custodianship within the coming year on a
complete implementation of UNSCR 1701. Chatta maintained
this would be a clear win for both the democratic government
of Lebanon and the security-conscious Israelis. Chatta
indicated the mere discussion of Shebaa, and the possibility
of ending Israeli occupation of that contested territory once
and for all, would be considered a notable achievement for
the Lebanon's forces of moderation and the process of
negotiation. PM Siniora urged the congressmen to consider
the issue and the advantages that would accrue from movement
on it.

DEALING WITH AN ASCENDANT IRAN
--------------


6. (C) While Siniora stated that Syria was clearly behind
the acts of political intimidation and violence in Lebanon,

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it was Iran which was actually wielding the greatest power
and directing Hizballah, and to a lesser degree, Syria. The
Prime Minister said Iran had successfully "hijacked" the
Arab-Israeli conflict and had effectively used the lack of a
just resolution as justification for its increasingly
aggressive foreign policy.


7. (C) PM Siniora said it was evident that movement on the
Middle East peace process was the surest way to curtail the
growth of Iranian influence in the region, as well as the
increasing threat from Islamic fundamentalism. He
acknowledged there were many other factors within the Arab
world that contributed to the sense of frustration in the
"Arab street," but he urged his listeners to encourage the
U.S. administration to re-dedicate its efforts to resolve
this existential issue. He argued that progress on the peace
process would bring Iran back down to earth, and permit the
development of more normalized relations, both within the
region and with Western countries.

BUT ANY DIALOGUE MUST "BE CLEAR AND FORCEFUL"
--------------


8. (C) Siniora listened to Congressman Hoekstra explain
that dialogue may soon commence with both Syria and Iran on a
range of issues, but also heard assurances that Lebanon's
interests would not be jeopardized by such discussions.
While questioning the timing, the Prime Minister cautioned
the U.S. to enter into such dialogue carefully, with clearly
delineated positions about what was and was not acceptable
international behavior by these two calculating regimes.
Iran, in particular, he noted was full of hubris at this time
and had always proved skillful in diplomatic negotiations.


9. (C) In any such engagement, Siniora urged the U.S. to
forcefully and unequivocally warn both Iran and Syria to
respect the sovereignty and independence of Lebanon - and
specifically to cease their interference in Lebanese affairs.
He indicated that Lebanon could develop and carry out normal
relations with any nation, but such interaction had to be
undergirded by normal diplomatic relations, recognized
borders, and noninterference in domestic affairs.


10. (C) If Syria and Iran could be forced to cease their
interference in Lebanon, PM Siniora said it would then be
possible to treat Hizballah as a Lebanese problem. Clearly
stating that his government wants to peacefully defuse the
problem, Siniora described his strategy to steadily drive
Hizballah "into a corner" from which it would have no
alternative but to behave as a responsible entity and disarm.
Explaining that neither the LAF nor any other force could
disarm Hizballah without provoking civil war, Siniora said
his plan was to reinforce the LAF deployment to south
Lebanon, unflinchingly support the UNIFIL mission, and search
for the means to upgrade services, security and otherwise, to
that area, in which for nearly 30 years Hizballah has had
free rein. In closing, PM Siniora once again thanked the
U.S. for its unwavering and critical support and said that if
movement could be achieved on both Shebaa and the regional
peace process, then Lebanon's experiment in democracy would
survive and perhaps slowly exert its influence through the
region.
FELTMAN