SINIORA, MINISTERS TEMPORARILY CUT OFF BY CROWDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 003746 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM LE SY SUBJECT: SINIORA, MINISTERS TEMPORARILY CUT OFF BY CROWDS CLASSIFIED BY: JEFFREY FELTMAN, AMBASSADOR, PER 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (SBU) AT 1900 LOCAL TIME, ALL BUT ONE OF THE ROADS LEADING TO THE GRAND SERAIL -- WHERE PRIME MINISTER SINIORA AND NINE OF HIS CABINET MINISTERS WERE TEMPORARILY BESIEGED BY THE MARCH 8-AOUN CROWDS -- WERE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT. THIS FOLLOWS A VERY TENSE ONE-HOUR PERIOD WHEN, DESPITE PROMISES TO THE CONTRARY, THE LEBANESE ARMED FORCES (LAF) FAILED TO PREVENT THE PRO-SYRIAN CROWDS FROM PITCHING TENTS AND BLOCKING ALL/ALL ACCESS TO THE GRAND SERAIL, WITH CROWDS MOVING UP TO THE PERIMETER SECURITY FENCE OF THE PRIME MINISTER'S COMPLEX. AS WORD BEGAN TO SPREAD IN BEIRUT OF THE TIGHTENING CROWD AROUND THE GRAND SERAIL, SMALL SKIRMISHES BEGAN TO BREAK OUT IN MIXED DRUSE-SHIA AND SHIA-SUNNI NEIGHBORHOODS. ¶2. (C) THE AMBASSADOR SPOKE IN SUCCESSION TO MINISTERS MARWAN HAMADEH AND NAYLA MOUAWAD (BOTH INSIDE THE SERAIL WITH THE PM),SINIORA, WALID JUMBLATT, AND SAAD HARIRI. FOR A WHILE, THE MARCH 14 LEADERS FEARED THE WORST -- THAT THE CROWD WOULD EITHER CHOKE OFF THE GRAND SERAIL UNTIL SINIORA GAVE UP OR THAT THE CROWD WOULD DRAG SINIORA AND HIS MINISTERS OUT BY FORCE. DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERI AND DEFENSE MINISTER ELIAS MURR TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT ARMY UNITS HAD BEEN SEPARATED AND TEMPORARILY ISOLATED BY THE SIZE OF THE CROWD. BUT, MURR VOWED, HE HAD ORDERED THE LAF TO USE FORCE TO REOPEN SOME ACCESS TO THE GRAND SERAIL. ¶3. (C) THE AMBASSADOR JOINED A NUMBER OF LEBANESE POLITICIANS AND DIPLOMATS IN CONTACTING PARLIAMENT SPEAKER NABIH BERRI TO URGE HIM TO EXERCISE LEADERSHIP IN MOVING THE CROWDS. JUMBLATT AND HARIRI NOTED THAT THEY HAD TOLD BERRI THAT THE SUNNI AND DRUSE WOULD HOLD HIM RESPONSIBLE, SHOULD SOMETHING HAPPEN TO THE CABINET MINISTERS IN THE SERAIL OR SHOULD WIDESPREAD SECTARIAN VIOLENCE BREAK OUT BECAUSE OF A PROLONGED SIEGE. BERRI (WHO SOUNDED DEJECTED WHEN TALKING WITH THE AMBASSADOR) TOLD HIS CALLERS TO GIVE HIM "FIFTEEN MINUTES." THIS TIME, BERRI DELIVERED; MURR'S THREAT TO USE FORCE TO OPEN THE ROADS WAS NOT NEEDED, AS THE CROWDS PULLED BACK VOLUNTARILY. GEIR PEDERSEN TOLD US THAT HE ALSO TALKED TO HIS "USUAL HIZBALLAH CONTACTS" TO URGE A PULLBACK FROM THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE GRAND SERAIL. MURR TOLD US THAT HE WOULD STATION ADDITIONAL LAF UNITS IN THE VICINITY. HE NOTED THAT ONLY THE ROAD BETWEEN THE GRAND SERAIL AND RIADH SOLH SQUARE (WHERE THE MASS DEMONSTRATION WAS HELD TODAY) WILL REMAIN CLOSED AND AVAILABLE TO THE DEMONSTRATORS, WHO HAVE UNFURLED BEDROLLS AND SET UP TENTS. ¶4. (C) AFTER THE ROADS BEGAN TO CLEAR, JUMBLATT TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT, HAD THE SIEGE CONTINUED, SINIORA WOULD HAVE ADDRESSED LEBANON FROM INSIDE THE GRAND SERAIL, FLANKED BY HIS NINE MINISTERS. ACCORDING TO JUMBLATT, SINIORA WOULD HAVE TRIED TO CALM THE LEBANESE IN HOPES OF PREVENTING DRUSE AND SUNNI ATTACKS AGAINST SHIA ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY. SINIORA'S PREPARED SPEECH, JUMBLATT SAID, WOULD HAVE EMPHASIZED THAT ALL OF THOSE SURROUNDING THE GRAND SERAIL WERE ALSO LEBANESE AND THAT THE LEBANESE SHOULD NOT FALL INTO THE SYRIAN TRAP OF CIVIL WAR. HARIRI WAS MORE BELLICOSE, ASKING THE AMBASSADOR ACIDLY WHETHER THE UNITED STATES HAD YET COME UP WITH ANY CONTINGENCY PLANS. HAMADEH MUSED ABOUT WHETHER A PROLONGED SIEGE OF THE SERAIL COULD BE A "CAUSUS BELLI" TO PROVOKE THE SECURITY COUNCIL INTO ACTION. ¶5. (U) THOSE INSIDE THE GRAND SERAIL INCLUDE SINIORA AND THE FOLLOWING CABINET MINISTERS: NAYLA MOUAWAD, MARWAN HAMADEH, JIHAD AZOUR, SAMI HADDAD, GHAZI ARIDI, JEAN HOGASAPIAN, KHALID QABBANI, AHMAD FATFAT, TARIQ MITRI. SINIORA'S ADVISORS MOHAMED CHATAH AND ROLA MOUREDDINE ARE ALSO THERE. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: THIS EVENING'S SIEGE OF THE GRAND SERAIL WAS, THANKFULLY, SHORT-LIVED AND REMAINED PEACEFUL. WHILE THE LEBANESE SECURITY SERVICES ARE DOWNPLAYING THE INCIDENT, THOSE INSIDE THE GRAND SERAIL -- AND THEIR MARCH 14 SUPPORTERS ELSEWHERE -- ARE CONVINCED THAT THIS WAS NOT AN ACCIDENTAL STRANGULATION BUT RATHER A CALCULATED EFFORT, DESIGNED TO INCREASE PRESSURE ON SINIORA AND HIS CABINET WHILE INCREASING CONFESSIONAL TENSIONS THROUGHOUT LEBANON. IF THAT WAS THE PLAN, IT WORKED. WE SUSPECT THAT THE DECISION TO PITCH TENTS TO BLOCK ALL ACCESS ROADS AND TO OVERWHELM THE ARMY BY NUMBERS WAS IN FACT A DRESS REHEARSAL OF WHAT MIGHT COME LATER, IF THE SINIORA CABINET DOES NOT COLLAPSE AS EASILY AS AOUN AND HIZBALLAH DESIRE. WE HOPE THAT LEBANONS INTERNATIONAL FRIENDS WHO TALK TO SYRIA AND IRAN ARE PASSING CREDIBLE MESSAGES TONIGHT THAT THEY WILL BE HELD RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY VIOLENCE AGAINST SINIORA'S CABINET AND ANY INTENTIONAL PROVOCATION DESIGNED TO SPARK CONFESSIONAL VIOLENCE. END COMMENT. FELTMAN