LEBANON: MARCH 14 LEADERS ARE CERTAIN OF SYRIA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 003686

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14 LEADERS ARE CERTAIN OF SYRIA'S
CULPABILITY IN GEMAYEL'S DEATH


CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR JEFFREY D. FELTMAN. REASON: SECTION 1.4 (B)
.

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) DEFENSE MINISTER ELIAS MURR TOLD THE AMBASSADOR AND
EMBOFF THAT HE IS ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN THE SYRIAN REGIME
ORDERED AND EXECUTED THE ASSASSINATION OF MINISTER PIERRE
GEMAYEL ON NOVEMBER 21. THE TIMING, METHOD OF EXECUTION, AND
POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE OPERATION POINT DIRECTLY BACK

TO DAMASCUS. MURR SAID THAT IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA WERE CLOSE
TO REACHING A COMPROMISE SOLUTION TO LEBANON'S POLITICAL
CRISIS, AND SYRIA, BEING THE ODD MAN OUT, ACTED "LIKE THE
MAFIA" TO ELIMINATE ANY POSSIBILITY THAT THE THREATENING
SPECIAL TRIBUNAL WOULD EVER BE ESTABLISHED. MURR WAS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER HIZBALLAH WAS AWARE OF THE OPERATION -- ON
THE ONE HAND IT UNDERCUT HIZBALLAH'S MOMENTUM IN ITS EFFORT
TO TOPPLE THE SINIORA GOVERNMENT, BUT ON THE OTHER, SOME OF
HIZBALLAH'S EARLIER STATEMENTS MIGHT HAVE INDICATED ADVANCE
KNOWLEDGE OF THE ACTION. IN A SEPARATE MEETING, FATHER OF
THE SLAIN MINISTER, FORMER PRESIDENT AMIN GEMAYEL AND
LEBANESE FORCES LEADER SAMIR JA'JA' INFORMED THE AMBASSADOR
AND EMBOFF THAT THEY ALSO WERE CONVINCED OF SYRIA'S
INVOLVEMENT, WITH JA'JA STATING THE PROFESSIONALLY-EXECUTED
MURDER HAD ALL THE EARMARKS OF THE SYRIAN SPECIAL FORCES.
JAJA EXPLAINED THE ASSASSINS MAY HAVE USED LOCAL
SURVEILLANCE ASSETS, BUT THEY WERE PROFESSIONAL KILLERS WHO
DID NOT CARE WHO SAW THEM AND ACTED WITH COMPLETE CONFIDENCE
IN THEIR ABILITY TO ESCAPE. AMIN GEMAYEL, MEANWHILE, URGED
THE U.S. TO CONVINCE ITS ALLIES ON THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL TO
IMMEDIATELY IMPLEMENT THE SPECIAL TRIBUNAL UNDER CHAPTER 7
AUTHORITY, "BEFORE THE SYRIANS KILL US ALL." END SUMMARY.


2. (C) DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF DEFENSE ELIAS
MURR, HIMSELF A NEAR-FATAL VICTIM OF A SUSPECTED SYRIA
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT IN IN JULY 2005, MET WITH THE
AMBASSADOR AND EMBOFF ON NOVEMBER 22 AT HIS HEAVILY-GUARDED
RESIDENCE IN RABIEH (LOCATED ONLY A FEW HUNDRED METERS FROM
THE HOUSE OF FPM LEADER MICHEL AOUN). MURR APPEARED
EXCEPTIONALLY WELL-INFORMED WITH THE INITIAL FINDINGS FROM
THE CRIME SCENE AND SHARED THEM FREELY. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
MEETING, PRO-SYRIAN PRESIDENT (AND MURR'S FORMER
FATHER-IN-LAW) EMILE LAHOUD CALLED AND ASKED HIS DEFENSE
MINISTER FOR ADDITIONAL LAF TROOPS TO GUARD THE APPROACHES TO
BAABDA PALACE IN ADVANCE OF TOMORROW'S FUNERAL FOR THE SLAIN
PIERRE GEMAYEL. ACCORDING TO MURR, THE PRESIDENT WAS ANXIOUS
NOT TO HAVE HIS ELITE PRESIDENTIAL GUARD BLOCK ANY CROWDS
ADVANCING ON THE PALACE, BUT PREFERRED TO HAVE THE MORE
POPULAR LAF POSITIONED BETWEEN BAABDA AND DOWNTOWN BEIRUT
WHERE THE FUNERAL WILL TAKE PLACE. MURR ASSURED THE
PRESIDENT HE WOULD BE SAFE, AND HANGING UP, GAVE AN IRONIC
SHRUG TO HIS GUESTS.

ODD MAN OUT
--------------


3. (C) MURR INFORMED THE AMBASSADOR THAT HE HAD CREDIBLE
REPORTS THAT IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA HAD BEEN RECENTLY ENGAGED
IN NEGOTIATIONS TO FIND A SOLUTION TO THE POLITICAL CRISIS IN
LEBANON IN WHICH THE INCREASINGLY POWERFUL SHIA COMMUNITY,
LED BY HIZBALLAH, WERE DEMANDING A GREATER NUMBER OF SEATS IN
THE ALL-IMPORTANT COUNCIL OF MINISTERS. ACCORDING TO MURR, A
SOLUTION WAS CLOSE AT HAND, AND THE SYRIANS HAD BELATEDLY
DISCOVERED THEY -- AND THEIR PRIMARY OBJECTIVE OF SCUTTLING
THE SPECIAL TRIBUNAL -- HAD NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE DEAL.


4. (C) THE SYRIAN REGIME REACTED PRECIPITOUSLY AND "LIKE
THUGS" DECIDED TO MURDER NOT ONLY A MARCH 14 LEADER, BUT A
MARONITE HEAD OF A CHRISTIAN PARTY, TO INSTILL FEAR AND
ACCELERATE THE COLLAPSE OF THE SINIORA GOVERNMENT. MURR SAID
THERE HAD BEEN INDICATIONS THAT BOTH FORMER PRESIDENT AMIN
GEMAYEL AND HIS SON, PIERRE GEMAYEL, HAD BEEN UNDER
SURVEILLANCE FOR AT LEAST TWO MONTHS, ALMOST ASSUREDLY BY
MEMBERS OF THE SYRIAN SOCIALIST NATIONALIST PARTY (SSNP),
WHICH IS LED BY STAUNCHLY PRO-SYRIAN ASAD HARDEN (WHOSE SSNP
HAD BEEN DEEPLY IMPLICATED IN THE ASSASSINATION OF FORMER
PRESIDENT-ELECT BASHIR GEMAYEL IN 1982) AND WHO ENJOY A BASE
OF SUPPORT IN JDEIDE, THE SCENE OF THE MURDER.

TEACHING A LESSON
--------------


5. (C) MURR BELIEVES THAT THE SHORT TIME FUSE OF SYRIAS


LEARNING OF THE IMPENDING POLITICAL COMPROMISE GAVE IT ONLY
DAYS TO PLAN AND EXECUTE THE ASSASSINATION. PIERRE GEMAYEL,
WHO HAS BEEN TRAVELING WIDELY ACROSS LEBANON IN LIGHTLY
PROTECTED VEHICLES (SWITCHED DAILY WITH A RENTAL COMPANY) IN
AN EFFORT TO EXPAND THE QATA'IB PARTY HIS GRANDFATHER
FOUNDED, WAS A RELATIVELY EASY TARGET. MURR SAID THE SWITCH
OF METHODOLOGY FROM CAR BOMBS TO SHOOTING WAS DICTATED BY
SEVERAL FACTORS: TIME WAS RUNNING SHORT FOR THE SYRIANS TO
GET GEMAYEL, A WELL-EXECUTED SHOOTING WOULD LEAVE LESS
EVIDENCE, THE ASSASSINS COULD BE EASILY SENT IN FROM SYRIA,
BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY FOR THE SYRIANS, A SUCCESSFUL SHOOTING
IN A BUSY NEIGHBORHOOD IN BROAD DAYLIGHT WOULD "HUMILIATE"
LEBANON'S SECURITY SERVICES -- AND DEMONSTRATE THAT THE
SYRIANS COULD ONCE AGAIN ACT WITH IMPUNITY.


6. (C) MURR SAID THE INITIAL INVESTIGATION SHOWS THAT THE
ASSASSINS WERE SKILLED, CALM, AND CONFIDENT. ALTHOUGH THE
INITIAL BARRAGE OF GUNFIRE CAME FROM SILENCER-EQUIPPED 9MM
MACHINE GUNS, ONE ASSASSIN THEN CALMLY OPENED THE DRIVER DOOR
AND ADMINISTERED THE COUP D'GRACE WITH A REVOLVER. THE THREE
GUNMEN, WHO WERE TRAVELING IN A BLACK HONDA SUV, ALSO CALMLY
GUNNED DOWN THE LAST SURVIVING BODYGUARD AS HE TRIED TO FLEE
THE SCENE. (NOTE: THIS BODYGUARD SURVIVED AND IS PRESENTLY
IN THE CUSTODY OF THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE UNDERGOING
DEBRIEFING. BECAUSE THIS ACT IS CONSIDERED TO BE TERRORIST
IN NATURE, LEBANONS MILITARY PROSECUTOR HAS JURISDICTION.
END NOTE.)


7. (C) MURR WAS ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN IT WAS A SYRIAN PLANNED
AND CONTROLLED OPERATION. HE WAS LESS CERTAIN ABOUT WHETHER
HIZBALLAH HAD BEEN AWARE OF THE PLAN BEFOREHAND. MURR SAID
IT SEEMED ILLOGICAL TO HIM THAT IF HIZBALLAH WAS ABOUT TO
GAIN A POLITICAL ADVANTAGE FROM ANY POLITICAL DEAL, THE
SYRIANS WOULD HARDLY INCLUDE THEM IN THEIR PLANS. ON THE
OTHER HAND, MURR BROUGHT UP THE CURIOUS EMPHASIS THAT HASSAN
NASRALLAH HAD PLACED ON A FAR-FETCHED CONSPIRACY THEORY THAT
THE U.S. EMBASSY WAS SOMEHOW INVOLVED IN ASSASSINATIONS THAT
WOULD EMPLOY SILENCER-EQUIPPED WEAPONS.


8. (C) CONCERNING THE POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES, MINISTER MURR
SAID IT WAS IMPERATIVE TO SEND SYRIA A POWERFUL MESSAGE THAT
IT COULD NOT CONTINUE ITS CAMPAIGN OF TERROR. MURR AGREED
THAT LEBANESE ADOPTION OF THE SPECIAL TRIBUNAL AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE WAS A KEY OBJECTIVE, BUT HE INDICATED THE COMPLEX
REQUIREMENTS OF LEBANONS CABINET/PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL
PROCESS WAS MAKING SUCH A DEVELOPMENT INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY
AND THE DEBATE INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS.

AOUN EMBARRASSED
--------------


9. (C) ABOUT THE ONLY GOOD THING TO COME OUT OF THE TRAGEDY
WAS THAT MURR NOW FELT FPM LEADER (AND PUTATIVE ALLY OF
HIZBALLAH) MICHEL AOUN WAS NOW IN A HIGHLY EMBARRASSING
POSITION. PIERRE GEMAYEL WAS THE FIRST MARONITE LEADER TO BE
KILLED IN THE VIOLENCE DATING BACK TO OCTOBER 2004 AND FOR
AOUN TO TAKE TO THE STREETS ALONGSIDE HIZBALLAH AT THIS TIME
WOULD STRONGLY TEST THE LOYALTY OF HIS CHRISTIAN POWERBASE.
MURR BELIEVED THAT THE GEMAYEL ASSASSINATION MIGHT STAY
AOUN'S HAND AND POSSIBLY GIVE THE SINIORA GOVERNMENT SOME
(SLIGHT) BREATHING SPACE.


10. (C) ONE OTHER POSSIBLE ADVANTAGE IS THAT THE BRUTALITY
OF THE MURDER MIGHT CONVINCE MINISTER OF ENVIRONMENT YACCOUB
SARRAF, WHO UNDER THREAT FROM HIZBALLAH HAD SUBMITTED HIS
RESIGNATION TO SINIORA LAST WEEK, MIGHT RECONSIDER AND RETURN
TO THE PRO-REFORM FOLD. IN FACT, MURR SAID HE HAD SENT
SARRAF A CAUSTIC MESSAGE ACCUSING HIM OF COMPLICITY IN
PIERRE'S DEATH BECAUSE HE HAD EMBOLDENED THE SYRIANS. SARRAF
REPORTEDLY ASKED TO MEET WITH MURR TO EXPLAIN HIS POSITION,
BUT MURR HAD REBUFFED THE REQUEST AND TOLD HIM FLATLY THAT
SARRAF KNEW WHAT HE HAD TO DO AS A POINT OF HONOR.


11. (C) MURR'S OVERALL VIEW OF THE SITUATION WAS DIRE, BUT
NOT HOPELESS. HE CONFIRMED EARLIER REPORTS THAT FORMER
MINISTER OF THE INTERIOR (AND HARIRI ALLY) HASSAN SABA' WAS
INDEED RETURNING TO THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS, FOLLOWING HIS
FORCED RESIGNATION LAST FEBRUARY FOLLOWING THE SUNNI
FUNDAMENTALIST RIOTS IN BEIRUT. IT SURELY WOULD NOT BE A
WIDELY HAILED MOVE, BUT IT WOULD GIVE THE SINIORA CABINET THE
ADDED SAFETY OF ANOTHER LOYAL MEMBER. THAT DEVELOPMENT,
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBLE (BUT WE JUDGE UNLIKELY) RETURN OF
SARRAF, COULD YET DEFEAT THE APPARENT SYRIAN PLAN TO
ASSASSINATE THEIR WAY TO A COLLAPSE OF THE PRO-REFORM


GOVERNMENT. AND ALTHOUGH MURR WAS CONCERNED WITH THE
EMOTIONAL REACTION OF THE UNTESTED SAAD HARIRI (WHO
APPARENTLY BROKE HIS HAND BY SLAMMING THE TABLE IN
FRUSTRATION AT THE NEWS OF HIS FRIEND'S DEATH),HE WAS
REASSURED BY THE STEADFASTNESS OF PRIME MINSTER SINIORA.
MUCH WOULD DEPEND, REASONED MURR, ON TOMORROW'S SHOW OF
STRENGTH BY THE PRO-REFORM FORCES -- AND THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITYS HOPED-FOR PUNISHING REBUKE OF SYRIA.

FORMER PRESIDENT GEMAYEL
AND JA'JA' JOIN FORCES
--------------


12. (C) THE MURR MEETING WAS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED BY A
CONDOLENCE CALL TO THE GEMAYEL FAMILY IN THEIR HOME VILLAGE
OF BKFAYA, LOCATED NORTH OF BEIRUT IN THE METN REGION
MOUNTAINS. THE LARGE GEMAYEL ANCESTRAL HOME WAS FILLED TO
BURSTING WITH MOURNERS, SUPPORTERS, AND MEDIA. FOLLOWING
WORDS WITH THE FAMILY, THE AMBASSADOR MET WITH LEBANESE
FORCES LEADER SAMIR JA'JA' AND FORMER PRESIDENT AMIN GEMAYEL
IN A PRIVATE STUDY.


13. (C) THE ELDER GEMAYEL GAVE HIS UNDERSTANDING OF THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S EVENTS AND FORCEFULLY STATED THAT HIS SON'S
DEATH MUST BE THE LAST ONE SYRIA GETS AWAY WITH. HE URGED
THE U.S. AND LEBANON'S OTHER ALLIES TO SEND A MESSAGE THAT
COMPELLED SYRIA TO END ITS CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION AND
VIOLENCE AGAINST DEMOCRATIC FORCES IN LEBANON. GEMAYEL
STATED THAT DEMOCRACY IN LEBANON WAS BARELY HANGING ON, AND
UNLESS SYRIA WAS RESTRAINED, IT WOULD SOON FALTER.


14. (C) SAMIR JAJA CONCURRED WITH HIS FRIENDS ANALYSIS
AND BLEAKLY NOTED THAT THE SPECIAL TRIBUNAL -- WHICH IN HIS
VIEW WAS THE BANE OF THE SYRIAN REGIME -- HAD TO BE
ESTABLISHED FORTHWITH. BOTH GEMAYEL AND JA'JA' ASKED IF THE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COULD NOT FIND A WAY TO PUSH THROUGH THE
COURT WITHOUT THE EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC LEBANESE CABINET AND
PARLIAMENTARY CLEARANCES, WHICH THEY FELT HIZBALLAH AND
SPEAKER NABIH BERRI WOULD OBSTRUCT AT EVERY TURN. GEMAYEL
ASKED WHETHER THE UN CHAPTER 7 MECHANISM COULD NOT BE
INVOKED. JA'JA' AND GEMAYEL EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT, AS LONG
AS LEBANON HAD TO APPROVE THE DOCUMENTS, SYRIA HAD REASONS TO
CONTINUING MURDERING THOSE WHO WOULD APPROVE THE TRIBUNAL.


15. (C) FORMER PRESIDENT GEMAYEL RECEIVED A CALL FROM
PRESIDENT BUSH AT THIS POINT AND AFTERWARDS INDICATED THAT HE
WOULD SPEAK WITH EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT HOSNI MUBARAK TO MUSTER
SUPPORT FOR LEBANON INTERNATIONALLY. GEMAYEL, WHO EXPRESSED
DEEP APPRECIATION FOR PRESIDENT BUSHS CONCERN AND SUPPORT,
CONCLUDED WITH HIS CONVICTION THAT LEBANON WAS AT A CRITICAL
JUNCTURE AND THAT ONLY THE EXPEDITIOUS ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
SPECIAL TRIBUNAL HAD A CHANCE TO STOP THE ACTS OF POLITICAL
TERROR WHICH WAS CLOSE TO TOPPLING THE YOUNG DEMOCRACY.
FELTMAN