LEBANON: EX-FOREIGN MINISTER POSITIONS HIMSELF AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003657 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: EX-FOREIGN MINISTER POSITIONS HIMSELF AS CENTRIST FOR PRESIDENCY Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: Section 1.4 (d ) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Ex-Foreign Minister and Presidential hopeful Jean Obeid attributes Lebanon's problems to external forces and to the inadequacy of current leaders in Beirut and Damascus. Citing a Shia-Sunni conflict spanning the entire Muslim world, Obeid espouses a neutral Lebanese presidency allied with neither sect. Not coincidentally, this is the latest position emphasized by the Maronite Patriarch, with whom Obeid has been strengthening his relations recently in an attempt to overcome his pro-Syrian past and become that "neutral" candidate. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The Ambassador called November 15 on Jean Obeid, a former Maronite MP from Tripoli who served as Foreign Minister under the last Rafiq Hariri government. Obeid once boasted of close ties to the Syrian regime, but it appears that he may have fallen out of favor in Damascus for reasons that are unclear. He has made the best of this reversal of fortunes by positioning himself with the Maronite Patriarch and others as a "neutral" presidential contender. Obeid is the uncle of current Finance Minister Jihad Azour and a relative of American lebanese Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM) President Salim Zeenni. REGIONAL DIMENSIONS OF LEBANON'S CONFLICT -------------- ¶3. (C) Obeid's message stressed the regional dimensions of the current Lebanese political crisis. Known as an "Arab nationalist," he repeatedly pointed to the Sunni/Shia conflict raging "from Afghanistan to Mauritania." The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran's regional and nuclear ambitions, and Syria's greed for Lebanon all feed into Lebanese domestic political strife. "Some Lebanese are adding to the conflict," he added. The question is how to isolate Lebanon from this vast conflict, not involve Lebanon in it. However, there is a lot of Sunni and Shia money flowing in from outside which fuels the sectarian conflict in Lebanon. ¶4. (C) In his new guise as a centrist, Obeid had criticism for all parties. "The minority has no patience and the majority has no modesty," he said. Obeid criticized what he sees as the tendency of the majority -- i.e., March 14 -- to make decisions unilaterally without adequate consultation with other parties. Prime Minister Siniora, he said, does not spare the time to contact and consult other government figures, as compared with Rafiq Hariri, who was in frequent contact with officials at all levels including mayors. Obeid claimed to have told Siniora, "Don't expect the U.S., France and Saudi Arabia to do your work for you" in settling issues with other Lebanese parties. Siniora will have to do more himself. As for the U.S. role, Obeid recommended that any initiatives or positions taken by the USG be presented as Lebanese policy, rather than USG policy. ¶5. (C) Obeid cited the cabinet's November 13 approval of the Hariri assassination tribunal as another example of March 14 unilateralism. After months of preparation for the acceptance of the tribunal, he asked, why could the GOL not wait another few days before pushing the tribunal decision through? Additionally, it seems as if March 14 has already made up its mind about the tribunal's verdict. Such a position would only corner "a violent regime," he warned. "You must not give it pretexts every day." ¶6. (C) If the majority needs a spirit of modesty and inclusiveness, he continued, the minority -- i.e., Hizballah, Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, and other pro-Syrian groups -- needs patience. "They don't take into consideration that there was an election." The minority's backers, Iran and Syria, are becoming more strident in their demands, not more reasonable, and their relative power is increasing. Lebanon is heading toward more violence, he gloomily asserted. ¶7. (C) Lebanon needs to guide its Shia river into the BEIRUT 00003657 002 OF 002 Lebanese sea, he added. Hizballah is strong toward outside threats, like Israel, but weak or inept toward internal Lebanese parties. EXCLUSION DESTABILIZES LEBANON -------------- ¶8. (C) Obeid turned on President Lahoud and his apparent position that Christians are part of a Christian-Shia axis confronting Sunni and Druze. While these alliances may shift, they are always bad for Lebanon. The Lebanese president, he said, should play the role of a bridge between confessional groups. If two out of Lebanon's three largest groups line up against the other, there will be continuous war. Obeid praised the Patriarch's position that the president must lead Lebanon's Christians out of sectarian strife. The Patriarch does not want Christians to fight Christians nor Muslims to fight Muslims. ¶9. (C) Michel Aoun, he added, does not comprehend the mind of Christians. Samir Ja'ja' does not comprehend the heart of Christians. President Lahoud is feeding the flames and creating walls, not bridges, between groups. Lebanon cannot be safe with a president who is part of a Christian-Sunni or Christian-Shia axis. Lebanon also cannot afford a President who is either an agent or an enemy of Syria. TRIBUNAL -------------- ¶10. (C) Obeid agreed with the Ambassador's assertion that the Hariri assassination tribunal would be an important because it would be held in accordance with strict international standards on evidence and other elements of investigation and proof. However, he asserted that the SARG is "afraid, because they know more than you know." The reason for the extension of Lahoud's term, he said, and he had just comprehend this -- was so that Lahoud could "cover up anything" related to the assassination and related crimes. (Comment: The extension of Lahou's term occurred more than five months before the Hariri assassination. End Comment.) ¶11. (C) The tribunal will take 3-6 years, Obeid asserted. Obeid, a lawyer, cited to the Ambassador the length of the tribunal to investigate Libyan involvement in the Lockerbie airline bombing. After such a length of time, he continued, how can the international community hope to carry out the sentence? On the other hand, by so clearly working against the tribunal, Bashar al-Asad and Emile Lahoud are indicting themselves before anyone accuses them. Bashar al-Asad, for example, "opens the grave of Rafiq Hariri every time he gives a speech." FAILURE OF LEADERSHIP -------------- ¶12. (C) Saad Hariri, Bashar al-Asad, and Walid Jumblatt -- none of them measure up to their fathers, Obeid lamented. When he went to Damascus to pay his respects following the suicide of Ghazi Kenaan, the atmosphere was very tense. Ditto when he returned to Syria to pay a condolence call on Mustapha Tlas. One of the causes of this tension was Jumblatt's remark to the effect that al-Asad would be hauled before the tribunal, like Milosevic. Asad, however, had also picked a useless fight with Saudi King Abdullah, and Obeid said that he told him via Butheina Shaban "you are an expert at losing friends and opportunities." ¶13. (C) Despite his close Baathist connections, Obeid maintained he was never a Baathist. But one can't live in the Arab world and not know the mentality of all Arabs. There are Christian leaders, he lamented, who don't know how to deal with the other parties or with each other. Amin Gemayel, he related, had once demanded that they leave his office to have a private conversation for fear that his own brother Bashir had bugged it. FELTMAN