LEBANON: A BATTLE PLAN EMERGES, AND SWIFT ACTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003650 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: A BATTLE PLAN EMERGES, AND SWIFT ACTION IS REQUIRED Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Minister of Telecommunications Marwan Hamadeh told the Ambassador and Emboff on 11/17 that the GOL is desperate for strong support from the USG and other allies. They will fight Lahoud on constitutional grounds, while attempting to bring Berri back into the fold. Outlining the strong tactical maneuvers planned to defend the Siniora government, the Minister also made a number of urgent requests to the USG, and to other foreign governments, in particular a swift work on the special tribunal and increased Turkish participation in UNIFIL. Ministers will travel to the UN and to see Chirac, while members of parliament will stage a show of support. There will be a call for a vote of confidence in the Parliament. End summary. GOL BEGGING FOR IMMEDIATE HELP -------------- ¶2. (C) Marwan Hamadeh, Minister of Telecoms, requested an urgent meeting with the Ambassador on November 17. A tired and subdued Hamadeh, who admitted to being in March 14 strategy meetings until 2:15 a.m. the night before, immediately launched into a detailed plan of attack determined by the March 14 coalition, designed to contain Speaker Nabih Berri, and spike the guns of Hizballah, Iran and the Syrians, with the key action related to the special tribunal looking into the assassinations of former PM Rafiq Hariri and others. ¶3. (C) Hamadeh made a number of action requests of the USG, but the most important was the swift adoption by the UNSC of the documents regarding the special tribunal by the UN on Monday; "Put that number one." He said that Walid Jumblatt stressed that when he was in Washington recently, and they believe it is the only way to contain Syria. The tribunal will also corner President Emile Lahoud. The GOL will not try to change the text, and will also make some moves to the Russians and Chinese to promote approval. He has been assured by Russian Ambassador Sergi Boukin that the Russians have now concurred in avoiding any changes to to the text in any substantive manner. Several Palestinian ministers have been phoning with warnings, among them Salam Fayad, who said, "The battle of Assad against the tribunal is being waged in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine." Hamadeh wondered if this was because UNIIIC Commissioner Brammertz had finally found something implicating Syria. MULTI-FACETED BATTLE PLAN -------------- ¶4. (C) Hamadeh reported that, to counter Emile Lahoud's insistence that PM Siniora's tenure is illegal and unconstitutional, Members of Parliament are being sent in groups to Siniora to show support. In response to the Ambassador's assertion that Siniora seemed confident and strong, Hamadeh said, "we are keeping him that way." Memos are being sent to all embassies asking them to support the legitimacy of the current government. Minister of Culture (and Acting Foreign Minister) Tariq Mitri and Minister of Justice Charles Rizk may be sent to the UN to press for quick action on the tribunal and show that the will to implement the tribunal is not weakening. Hamadeh said that he would travel s ecretly to Paris later on 11/17 to meet with President Jacques Chirac. ¶5. (C) In his meeting with Chirac, Hamadeh will ask the same things he asks of the USG, beginning with "a more resolute attitude." Saying that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran, publicly announced that he will wage war against the US in Lebanon, political support from allies and strengthening of the Arab attitude are vital. In addition, Lebanon requires more delivery of arms for the LAF, and most critical, a secure telecommunications system to defeat Hizballah spies. "Send Nortel or whomever to install this immediately," he begged. MORE TURKS FOR UNIFIL DESIRED -------------- ¶6. (C) Because UNSCR 1701 is a target of the pro-Syrians, along with the tribunal, UNIFIL should be strengthened, Hamadeh argued. If Hizballah and the Syrians are allowed to BEIRUT 00003650 002 OF 002 run UNIFIL out of the south through attacks disguised to appear to be al-Qaida, it will heighten the tension with Israel. With that in mind Hamadeh would like to see more pressure put on the Turks to assist. He would like to see 1000 additional Turkish soldiers in the south, and thinks that the Turks could pressure both Syria and Iran, if they chose to do so. The Syrians and Iranians, Hamadeh suggested, are intimidated by the Turks and would be reluctant to promote attacks against a Turk-filled UNIFIL. Finally, some "gestures" on both over flights and Sheb'a Farms are critical as well. BERRI PRESENTS A SPECIAL PROBLEM -------------- ¶7. (C) Hamadeh said that working with Speaker Berri is very difficult now. Saad Hariri is still very upset with Berri. The statements Berri made in Iran were bad. With Minister of Information Ghazi Aridi (like Hamadeh, allied with Jumblatt) having failed to soften Berri's attitude, MP Boutros Harb, considered close to the Speaker, was being sent today to talk to Berri. On Thursday, Walid Jumblatt tried to bring Berri around to supporting the tribunal, saying. "You can't do that to Rafiq Hariri -- he was your friend." Berri's answer was, "Walid, the Syrians will not let us." Describing Berri yesterday as, "like the Sphinx," Hamadeh was not hopeful that today would be different but they would approach him again. (Note: During the Ambassador's meeting with Hamadeh, Berri's office called on the Ambassador's cell phone to ask for a meeting on Saturday.) A LEGAL FIGHT -------------- ¶8. (C) Hamadeh also outlined the plan to fight Lahoud via the constitution. A request has been sent to Lahoud with an agenda, as required under the constitution, for a meeting of the Council of Ministers on Thursday of next week. It will be returned by Lahoud, who will say that the council cannot meet. The government will then ask for a vote of confidence from the parliament, which is currently in session. Knowing that the March 14 cabinet will easily win a parliamentary vote of confidence, Berri will not call for the parliamentary meeting. Basing this argument on the preamble to the constitution, which states that the people, through the common bodies, are the source of all powers, the March 14 leaders will continue the fight on legal grounds. If this is not accepted they will propose the names of five new unknown Shiite ministers -- "We will get them," Hamadeh said (when the Ambassador asked whether there were Shia willing to break with the Hizballah-Amal solidarity to come forth as ministerial candidates). In the end, Hamadeh said, March 14 will be able to present both Speaker Berri and President Lahoud as taking positions breaching the constitution. TACTICS -------------- ¶9. (C) Knowing that the Ambassador would be meeting with Saad Hariri and Siniora, Hamadeh suggested some messages to pass along. "Tell Saad" that there should be pressure brought on the Arab countries to attend the official celebrations for Lebanese National Day on Wednesday, but to send lower-ranking officials to Lahoud's celebrations at Baabda Palace, as the other embassies plan to do. And tell Siniora that the Syrians "want his neck; it is not just a question of government." He said that both Jumblatt and Hariri are convinced of that as well. ¶10. (C) Asked about his expectations regarding approaching violence, he cited two recent victories: the student elections at AUB and, in "the citadel of Aoun," Antonine University, both of which showed a decrease of support for Aoun compared to last year. Hamadeh expects that there might be low-key actions starting Sunday or Monday. On a more personal level, he shared yet another warrant for his arrest, along with Jumblatt and others for crimes against the state, issued by Syria. He asked that the Ambassador tell Serge Brammertz that they receive threats all the time. He also said that the purported al-Qaida threats had actually been made by Palestinians, who were in effect Syrian-created al-Qaeda. FELTMAN