FORMER PM MIKATI INSISTS HE SUPPORTS SINIORA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003604

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2026
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: FORMER PM MIKATI INSISTS HE SUPPORTS SINIORA

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
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1. (S/NF) In a 11/8 meeting with the Ambassador, former
Prime Minister Najib Mikati -- on a two-day pause in Beirut
from a month of globe-trotting -- expressed deep annoyance at
the suggestion that he might be a tool in pro-Syrian hands to
oust the Siniora government. He has been and will remain
strong in his public and private support of Siniora, he said
(and after the Ambassador left issued a press statement
rejecting the threat or use of street demonstrations to bring
down Siniora). Mikati expressed deep concern about
Hizballah's alliance with Michel Aoun, believing that it had
evolved during the summer conflict into something more
durable, dangerous, and anti-Sunni. While he admitted
ambitions to return as Prime Minister, he said that he would
not do so in the current environment and not at the expense
of Siniora. He admitted giving the pro-Syrian/pro-Iranian
al-Akhbar USD 150,000 in start-up capital (triple Mikati's
previous admission to us) but claimed to have cut all ties to
the newspaper out of disgust for its editorial line. End
summary.

MIKATI INSISTS HE SUPPORTS SINIORA
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2. (S/NF) The Ambassador reviewed with Mikati -- just back
from Europe and just before traveling to New York -- U.S.
concerns that he could be plotting with the pro-Syrians or,
alternatively, be the unwitting beneficiary of a pro-Syrian
plot to replace Fouad Siniora as Prime Minister. That, the
Ambassador cautioned, would have severe implications for his
relationship with the United States; Mikati should not expect
the warm cooperation with the U.S. he enjoyed as Prime
Minister if he came to power on the ashes of the Siniora
government.


3. (S/NF) Mikati expressed deep annoyance with the message,
insisting that he has been strong in his public and private
support of Fouad Siniora and would continue to be. "Jeff,
you know me too well to accuse me of that," Mikati
complained. Siniora has performed extremely well and brought
great international help to Lebanon. Not only is Mikati not
trying to replace Siniora, but he is opposed to the effort to
replace him now at all, by any means. (As if to reinforce
this point, Mikati issued a press statement after the
Ambassador left noting his opposition to using the threat of
intimidation or street demonstrations to topple or change the
Siniora cabinet.) Sinora repeated previous arguments that he
and Bashar al-Asad are no longer close. The Ambassador
cautioned Mikati that, even if he is not involved directly,
others may be counting on promoting him as PM once Siniora is
out of the way. Mikati admitted that he believed he did a
good job as PM in 2005 and deserved to be considered again.
One cannot blame him for ambition and "for wanting to help my
country." But he vowed not to be used as a tool against
Siniora, nor to take office in this atmosphere at the expense
of Siniora.

MIKATI FEARS ANTI-SUNNI ALLIANCE
OF MICHEL AOUN AND HIZBALLAH
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4. (S/NF) Noting the escalating rhetoric, the Ambassador
asked Mikati's views of the days and weeks ahead. (Note:
This meeting took place before the Shia ministers resigned on
11/11. End note.) Mikati thought that Hizballah and Michel
Aoun would "go all the way" in trying to achieve control of
the cabinet, either by grabbing a blocking minority or by
toppling Siniora altogether. "All the way" might include
violent street demonstrations. Hizballah and Aoun are now
closer than they were before the war, Mikati thought, and
their tightened alliance was also more dangerous, in his
view. Aoun has convinced his followers that the Sunnis are a
threat, and the Shia need no convincing. Hizballah will now
support Aoun for president, Mikati predicted. Asked what he
would do if he were PM facing the Aoun-Hizballah threat,
Mikati had two suggestions: try to court Berri, as Berri is
"more Lebanese" than Hizballah and might be persuaded not to
participate in taking the country to chaos, and "be strong,
don't back down" in the face of provocations.

MONEY TO AL-AKHBAR
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BEIRUT 00003604 002 OF 002




5. (S/NF) The Ambassador asked Mikati what his true
relationship is with the pro-Syrian, pro-Iranian newspaper,
al-Akhbar. Mikati said that he was "ashamed" to admit now
that he had provided USD 150,000 in start-up capital (thrice
the amount he had previously acknowledged),as part of his
overall investment strategy of helping all Lebanese media
enough to help ward off unfavorable press. But, disgusted by
the newspaper's barely disguised propaganda, he refuses
further involvement. He is not one of the owners, he
insisted.

COMMENT
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6. (S/NF) A billionaire, Mikati can bide his time until his
country calls him again. Unlike fellow billionaire and
pro-Syrian politician Issam Fares (in self-imposed exile on
his Monaco-based yacht ever since March 2005),however,
Mikati is still in the political game. His globe-trotting
allows him to burnish his credentials as a senior statesman,
giving a speech before the International Crisis Group one
week and meeting Kofi Annan (probably arranged by his friend
Terje Roed-Larsen) the next. His almost continued absence
from Lebanon in recent weeks does not prove his innocence in
plots to oust Siniora, of course, but his denials have a ring
of sincerity -- and of self-interest. After all, he will be
better positioned to find broad support as a fall-back prime
ministerial candidate if he remains above efforts to change
the government. After all, Mikati did a credible job as PM
in a difficult transitional period, and he seems to be
counting on his reputation from that experience rather than
his "friend-and-financier-of-Bashar" pro-Syrian history as
his best chance for returning to office someday.
FELTMAN