LEBANON: RESORT TO DEMONSTRATIONS THREATENED AS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003599

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: RESORT TO DEMONSTRATIONS THREATENED AS
THIRD ROUND OF CONSULTATIONS FAILS

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S) Despite consistent reports of a positive atmosphere,
the November 9 session of Parliament Speaker Berri's national
consultations ended with no progress or compromise on the key
issues. The group adjourned until November 11. Veteran
insider Michel Murr conveyed to us on November 9 a grave
warning that should Saad Hariri and Berri fail to reach a
formula for implementing legislation to enact an
international tribunal before the next session, there will be
street demonstrations beginning Monday, November 13.
According to our other interlocutors, the session failed over
Murr's proposal to replace serving cabinet members including
Charles Rizk with March 8 group appointees in an expanded
cabinet of 26 members. In a statement to the press, Samir
Ja'ja' seemed conciliatory toward Aoun but he seemed resigned
that demonstrations would occur. Berri, meanwhile, put a
brave face on the session's outcome and postponed his Iran
trip to November 12 in order to conduct the next session.
End Summary.

STALEMATE
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2. (C) The third session of national consultations held under
the auspices of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri concluded
today with no progress, according to our contacts. Although
there was agreement that the atmosphere had been more relaxed
than in previous rounds, each side stuck firmly to its
previous demands. The group decided to adjourn until
Saturday, November 11, at 11:00 AM. The parties will spend
the evening of November 9 and all day of November 10 in side
talks and shuttle diplomacy aimed at resolving the impasse.
To accommodate the extension of the talks, Berri has
postponed his travel to Iran until November 12.

MURR PROPOSAL FAILS
-- AND THE STREET MAY BE NEAR
--------------


3. (S) Metn MP Michel Murr told the Ambassador, after
consulting with his son, Defense Minister and Deputy PM Elias
Murr, that Berri and Mustaqbal Party leader Saad Hariri will
meet November 9 and 10 to attempt to work out a deal to
approve the special tribunal which will investigate and
prosecute the assassination of Rafiq Hariri and related
crimes. If they can come up with a solution, Murr said, the
November 11 session will be easier and more positive. If
not, he claimed, "the street will start on Monday" -- i.e.,
November 13.


4. (C) MP Ily Skaff told us that Murr's proposal for a
cabinet of 26 ministers failed to gain March 14 acceptance
because of Murr's insistence that Justice Minister Charles
Rizk be ousted in favor of a March 8 member of Parliament.
(Note: Murr had been instrumental in obtaining a cabinet
post for Rizk in 2005. Since that time Rizk has moved away
from his lifetime friend and patron, and Murr ally, Emile
Lahoud. Meanwhile, Hariri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt,
impressed by Rizk's commitment to the creation of the
tribunal, pledged to protect Rizk during the consultations.
End note.) Berri tried to salvage the proposal by asking
Murr to refrain from naming those who would be ousted from
the cabinet and those who would be added to the cabinet;
however Murr insisted on getting into specifics.


5. (C) Of all those with whom we spoke, MP Boutros Harb
seemed the most positive about the proceedings, hailing the
positive atmosphere. Harb characterized the meeting as a
return to the National Dialogue of earlier this year, noting
that the group had agreed to discuss all issues including the
presidency, Hizballah's weapons, and the tribunal.

BERRI AND JA'JA' POSITIVE TO THE PRESS
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6. (SBU) Berri, for his part, put a brave face on the
proceedings in a press conference he held just after the
meeting ended. He echoed the sentiments of others regarding

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atmospherics, indicating that it had been "the best so far"
and that trust was built among the conferees.


7. (SBU) Lebanese Forces leader Samir Ja'ja' told the press
following the meeting that he conceded that the cabinet needs
to be altered, but gave a higher priority to changing the
president, citing Lahoud's obstructionism as the reason for
the GOL's failure to make progress on a number of issues.
Ja'ja' accused the March 8 side of seeking a blocking
minority; however he appeared conciliatory toward Free
Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun. Ja'ja' stated that
Aoun has the right to ask to participate in the government
and characterized Aoun's request as realistic. When asked
whether he would contend with March 8 in the street, Ja'ja'
replied "I have no street" and said he saw no problem should
March 8 supporters demonstrate, as long as they stick to the
law.
FELTMAN