LEBANON: SPARKS FLY ON FIRST DAY OF NATIONAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 BEIRUT 003565 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: SPARKS FLY ON FIRST DAY OF NATIONAL CONSULTATIONS Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (d) ¶1. (S) Druze Telecommunications Minister and frequent Embassy contact Marwan Hamadeh (protect) read to Ambassador and polchief his notes from the first day of the national consultations sponsored by Chamber of Deputies Speaker Nabih Berri. Hamadeh characterized the consultations as "heading for an impasse" but nevertheless claimed that March 14 representatives scored a "victory on points." ¶2. (S) There were several significant and telling moments captured in Hamadeh's notes. For example, the day's exchanges saw Prime Minister Siniora openly blame Hizballah for starting the war that landed Lebanon in its current dire straits. Speaker Berri called for keeping the same government in place with little or no change in the current line up, as long as the government could be expanded. Lahoud ally Michel Murr agreed that Siniora should remain PM. Mustaqbal Leader Saad Hariri demanded "56% of the Presidency" in exchange for the March 8 demand of 44% of the cabinet (percentages that correspond with parliamentary representation). Hariri and Druze Leader Walid Jumblatt accused Syria of assassinating Rafiq Hariri and of interfering in Lebanon's affairs and acknowledged that he wants to see the Syrian regime overthrown. March 14 leaders insisted on changing the president before expanding the cabinet. Finally, Hizballah representative Mohammed Ra'ad tried a conciliatory stance on cabinet expansion, which provoked an open attack by his ally, Free Patriotic Movement Leader Michel Aoun, who insisted on obtaining four cabinet seats "even if it comes out of your (Hizballah's) share." ¶3. (S) The following are the notable points made by each participant, paraphrased from Hamadeh's notes. Begin Quote: Berri: Each party must not resort to its "street" because there are many "streets." We need a "media truce" or else anything we accomplish here will collapse. Mustaqbal Party Leader Saad Hariri: I'm for a media truce, but everything will leak. Berri must guarantee our confidentiality. There is always one party who talks and SIPDIS escapes blame and another who doesn't, yet gets blamed. Qornet Shahwan MP Boutros Harb: There are two types of interlocutors, those who talk (i.e., betray confidences) and those who don't. Hizballah MP Mohammed Ra'ad: We are in the midst of high tension. Lets get out of it progressively. But a media truce doesn't mean we can't express our point of view. Berri: What we say here should stay between us and secret. I want to keep order in these proceedings. The guarantee Hariri asks for depends on your commitment. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora: Everyone in Beirut is suffering from high tension. During the past 30 years we haven't seen so much tension. Give the country a chance. The Lebanese people are the most pessimistic ever. Don't count on the Lebanese to rise up -- they're tired. The boat is not strong and is in a bad situation. Everything will collapse -- the pound, the economy. People will be impoverished. Every day on television people are injected with tension, under orders. The formula for Lebanon will collapse. Where are you pushing the country to? Everyone is laughing at us. Berri: What you are saying is being recorded for the sake of accuracy. Free Patriotic Movement Leader Michel Aoun: I asked for a national unity government because there's no justice in our representation. Publisher Ghassan Tueni: The media is not responsible for leaks, you are. Lebanese Forces Leader Samir Ja'ja': What Aoun is presenting regarding a national unity government seems normal but I will talk about it later. We need to publish everything that was said and agreed to in the National Dialogue (that took place BEIRUT 00003565 002 OF 005 between March and July 2006). I'm for reducing the tone of the rhetoric but not for hiding the proceedings. Druze Leader Walid Jumblatt: Some of the media are off-track, and insulting. Harb: How can we make sure not to have leaks? Ja'ja': How can we have representation of all parties? We have different visions for Lebanon. The government must represent a single vision. For that reason, we cannot put everyone in government. We each read the events of July differently -- there is a very big difference. The political feud isn't about numbers of seats, its about principles. Tueni: There should be a place for opposition in the political system; it keeps government from going too far. If you want to amend the Ta'if Agreement, then lets do it. Make a table of priorities. Berri: Let there be no amendments to Ta'if. This is our constitution and we are committed to it. Harb: We paid for Ta'if with blood and must keep it. The government is not an end, its a means. Its normal and healthy to have elections every four years. We can't rely on opinion polls to govern. They're unreliable and manipulated anyway. A national unity government could be formed at an extraordinary time, but at this point it would be a contradiction of the elected government, and we must refuse it. When Ta'if talked of a national unity government, it was to establish Lebanon as a state. If we agree on a common program, let's proceed, but we don't. The presence of the opposition shouldn't deprive the government of the right to govern. Berri: I have never sought early elections. As for the electoral law, it need not be undertaken now. We can begin discussions on it now, as we can on Paris III. When I went to Jeddah, I was discussing the electoral law and the donors conference. Hariri: I would like to remind Michel Murr that there was a proposal to put the army in the Chouf to guarantee his election. Lahoud Ally Michel Murr: No, I always won my elections. If you want a way out, it is the national unity government. Aoun did not refuse an offer of four ministers, he was only offered two. There need be no change of the government or of the Ministerial Statement. No one wants the Prime Minister to be changed. He represents all of us. This should make Samir Ja'ja' more at ease, and alleviate tension between him and Michel Aoun. Aoun: There's no tension between us. But if Christians are comforted and Hizballah is more at ease, won't that be better and less tense overall? Hariri: The blocking one-third is unacceptable. There is already a blocking President. It is nonsense to talk of elections every day. If you want 44% of government (corresponding with parliamentary percentages),I say let me have 56% of the Presidency. If you want to talk about a blocking third, lets talk about a blocking President. What is left of the four points we agreed on before? If we have a blocking one-third, we will have no Paris III; no comfort or money; and emigration. In Mustaqbal, we don't want to threaten or ignore anyone. All the strategic decisions we took in consultation with you, except the Tribunal. We're not against the Resistance either since you're sticking to the Ministerial Statement. Siniora: We're in a disaster. We need to avoid a new crisis as you suggest. We'll reach an agreement on an electoral law, but the crisis is a crisis of confidence and accusations of treason are not acceptable. Hariri: I have one conviction: that Syria killed my father. Yet I still agreed (in the National Dialogue) to the proposal to establish diplomatic relations with Syria. If you go to the street (addressing Ra'ad) we will meet you there. Either BEIRUT 00003565 003 OF 005 there's a comprehensive settlement or none. Aoun: The electoral law is rotten. You (the March 14 forces) also cancelled the constitutional council, and administrative appointments were not consulted upon with us. If we participate we want exact calculations. Zahle Bloc MP Elie Skaff: The Minister of the Interior is fighting against us. Acting Minister Fatfat is illegitimate because his predecessor is still in the country. The debt of the country will explode. Ra'ad: This is not a normal crisis, it is an exceptional one. Its a popular crisis also. We have a lot of psychological tension. We have our fears also. What happened during the war doesn't comfort us. I don't impugn your patriotic virtues, but you accuse us of everything. Last year there was a national agreement (the cabinet statement from July 2005, that included "protection of the resistance") but you're not respecting it. We now have two majorities. Don't think that we are going to make a coup d'etat. We have some time. We came out of the war bearing some heavy consequences. This government is blocking everything. We're not putschists and we don't want to go back to war either. You accuse us of following Syria's orders. Can we now organize this division between us? We can no longer bear this government. We're for the implementation of Ta'if point by point. But everyone has his interpretation. Why are you afraid of the street? There has been no budget for two years. We want more than a third of the cabinet. Siniora: This government represents everyone except Aoun. Everything has been discussed with you (addressing Ra'ad) except the (decision on December 12, 2005, when the Shia walked out of the cabinet to ask the UN to establish the) Tribunal. But you promised us here, at the Dialogue table, that you wouldn't do anything outside the Sheba'a Farms or some acts to remind people of the occupation. Then on July 12 I was sitting with the President, for the first time in a long time, attending to some administrative matters and I discovered that you began a war with Israel without consulting with anyone. This government achieved the Seven Points; this government concluded UNSCR 1701; this government deployed the army to the south; this government stopped the war; this government put the country back together; and this government is solving the problems you have created. Jumblatt: And you accuse us of treason. When we (the March 14 representatives) met with Secretary Rice during thw war, we saved you from Chapter Seven. We told her that it was impossible, that it would blow the country up. Siniora: Government is not the place to open up debate and insult each other. We were for dialogue on everything except the Tribunal. It is true we need a budget. No one will assist us without reforms, but reforms mean change, and none of you want change. If you continue like this then say goodbye to the Lebanese pound. We have to agree on the whole program before we can include anyone in government. Berri: We're not trying to topple the government. We have to remember that one-half of the country received the other half with generosity during the war. Walid Jumblatt was the first to say that Hizballah won the war by resisting. If we could agree during the war then why not now? Tueni: Do you agree to the Tribunal? Berri: Everything we agreed to in the National Dialogue is still agreed. We don't want any change. I want no change of government, no change of ministers, don't change anything. Kata'eb Party Leader Amin Gemayel: I'm not a candidate for president and I'd like everyone else to say the same. Aoun: We were prepared to go to the street but now we are to not go and thus accomplish nothing? Hariri: I insist on a global settlement. Everything we're suffering now is because of the President. Things should be solved practically or we will also have to go to the street. BEIRUT 00003565 004 OF 005 Gemayel: If we had had a government of national unity on July 11 then maybe we wouldn't have gone to war. If we change the government we should do it by constitutional means. Jumblatt: When we were united and told Secretary Rice one vision, we got a good outcome to the war. The national unity government is the end of democracy. If we don't agree on a new president then the problem will remain open. Berri: What we ask is to bring Aoun into the government, and Aoun alone. Jumblatt: We want a peaceful settlement. (To Ra'ad) We must agree on a flexible assimilation of your situation. I won't talk about how the war started. We don't agree on the details of the Tribunal. You attacked Mehlis, you attacked the Tribunal before Gebran Tueni was killed. I oppose the Syrian regime and it should be toppled. You, Ra'ad, have an axis that is for certain purposes, but Syria must go. If you go on opposing the Tribunal you are accusing yourself. Lahoud is a fool. Ra'ad: We want a third or more of the cabinet. Hariri: Does your time limit still apply? (Ra'ad: No answer.) Berri: Its my time limit, because I have to travel to Teheran. Harb: We have to go back to the two presidencies (i.e., President of the Republic and President of the Council of Ministers, or Prime Minister). Murr: We (the pro-Syrians) had eight and a half ministers -- Culture Minister Tarek Mitri was not solidly with us -- but now that has changed (with the defection of Elias Murr and Charles Rizk away from the pro-Syrian camp and with Mitri's full support of Siniora). We want to restore that formula (i.e., give the pro-Syrians a blocking minority). Ra'ad: We asked for a national unity government before the war, by all legal means. We have good intentions; why not trust us? All we ask is for the national unity government. We admire Walid Jumblatt's stubbornness. Jumblatt: That's not enough; I wish I had your missiles! Ra'ad: (Regarding the tribunal, w)e want to make sure there's no injustice to anyone, therefore we're entering the details. Hariri: I have no problem (expanding the cabinet) but first we settle the question of the President. No one is trying to hit or disarm Hizballah, but everyone is raising tensions on television, etc. Don't you believe Rafiq Hariri was killed by treachery? If we don't have the Paris III conference neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran can bring us out of this mess. (Omar) Karami (who assumed the premiership at Syrian behest after Rafiq Hariri's October 2004 resignation) was the one who ran the government of hegemony, not us. Berri: Just show me how I can settle the issue of the President, then we'll do it. If we settle on principles then dialogue can continue. We need approval of the concept (of expanding the cabinet). But if not things can get very bad. Ra'ad: Rizk, Mitri and Murr were Lahoud's ministers. Now they are not. Why not change them, or just two of them for Aoun? Aoun: (angry at Ra'ad) I'm not in a hurry to enter any government, and I won't settle for less than four ministers, even if it comes out of your (Hizballah's) share! If you want to continue like that go on without me, I'm going home. Ra'ad et al.: (Try to calm Aoun down.) Berri decides to adjourn the consultations until 11 a.m. on Tuesday. BEIRUT 00003565 005 OF 005 End Quote. FELTMAN