LEBANON: NAYLA MOUAWAD STRUGGLING FOR POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003226

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2026
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KCRM LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: NAYLA MOUAWAD STRUGGLING FOR POLITICAL
SURVIVAL, EAGER FOR TRIBUNAL, AND FIGHTING IRANIAN AID WITH
NGO WORK

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b
) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Minister of Social Affairs Nayla Mouawad and her son
Michel, himself an aspiring politician, shared with the
Ambassador on October 4 their concerns about political
rivalries within the 14 March bloc and the Maronite
community. Nayla Mouawad was critical of Prime Minister
Siniora's micromanagement of reconstruction and failure to
publicize GOL successes. She is seeking to expand her own
relatively successful NGO activities to counter what her son
alleges is increased Iranian funding. She is eager to pass
legislation creating a special tribunal to investigate the
Hariri assassination as soon as possible, in part because she
sees it as a way to force a change in the presidency.
Electoral reform, the Mouawads believe, is too difficult to
accomplish before a new president is installed. End Summary.

FOCUSED ON POLITICAL SURVIVAL
--------------


2. (C) Mouawad and her son see rising sectarian tensions and
a widening split within the Christian community. She began
the conversation by raising recent Sunni-Shia clashes in the
streets of Beirut, rhetorical clashes at Ramadan iftars, and
Christian-Muslim tensions in the north. Mouawad passed on
rumors that former minister Suleiman Franjieh is rearming his
followers as well as members of the Ahbash (a civil war-era,
Damascus-backed Sunni militia). Franjieh, she claimd, is
driving a wedge of fear between the Sunni and Christian
populations. Michel Mouaward cited Franjieh as saying that
he would never join the 14 March coalition because he could
never renounce his close friendship with Syria's Asad family.



3. (C) Aoun's increasingly hostile rhetoric also worries
Mouawad, and she cited specific concerns about Hizballah's
plans for the planned annual Day of Jerusalem (Yum al-Quds)
rally on the last Friday of Ramadan. She also wondered,
"what is Saad Hariri up to?" He is allowing Siniora more
independence, perhaps under Saudi advice, but has yet to
fine-tune his approaches to dialogue with Hizballah
intermediaries, and appears afraid of Sunni-Shia tensions.


4. (C) Mouawad hoped that all sides could put away rivalries
for the Eid later this month. Mouawad was receptive to the
Ambassador's suggestion that she find some issues in which to
involve the opposition, such as a civil service advisory
board for the Prime Minister on reconstruction. She also
expressed great appreciation and high hopes for the private
sector interest in Lebanon that has followed the President's
Private Sector Delegation to Lebanon. She hopes to publicize
this effort among the Lebanese and Palestinian communities in
Washington during her upcoming trip (which will coincide with
the Mouawad Foundation dinner in Washington on October 28).

SINIORA MICROMANAGING RECONSTRUCTION
--------------


5. (C) While the Prime Minister did a superb job managing
Lebanon during the crisis, Siniora's micromanagement of the
reconstruction process is less helpful, Mouawad vented. Her
own ministry has been sidelined in the reconstruction
process, and has found only a few projects to sponsor.
Mouawad expressed frustration at how "far from social work"
the Shia members of parliament are, taking more than a day to
get back to her with data on social needs and eligible social
projects. By contrast, she praised Jumblatt bloc MP Wael Abu
Faour as being organized and quick to pursue relief
activities.


6. (C) Where the GOL has done well in reconstruction --
including quick restoration of water and roads -- has little
impact because there is no spokesperson to give a daily
progress report. Mouawad brought this up in an October 2
cabinet meeting, but was told that this was a Ministry of
Information job. She did not see Minister of Information
Ghazi Aridi as being the right messenger. "Lebanon needs a
road show," Mouawad commented, to publicize at home and
abroad its accomplishments.

TRIBUNAL ESSENTIAL FOR CHANGE

BEIRUT 00003226 002 OF 003


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7. (C) The government is now in a "50-50" standoff, with the
14 March coalition calling for a new president and the
Hizballah-Aoun alliance calling for a new government.
Hizballah's primary tool is Iranian money and threats, while
the 14 March coalition is starting to see an increase in
support from Arab nations against Iran, and views UNIFIL and
the possible establishment of a special tribunal to
investigate the assassination of Rafiq Hariri as additional
tools. "The tribunal is essential to change, to help the 14
March coalition win the battle, and to winning a change in
the presidency," Michel opined. Electoral reform, she said,
will be possible only after a change in the presidency,
because Christians will not rally around the 14 March
coalition until there is a new president.


8. (C) Nayla Mouawad agreed with the Ambassador that the
March 14 movement is not working as it should, largely
because each of its member politicians are thinking of their
own agendas rather than developing a unified approach, with
the exception of Walid Jumblatt. Mouawad recently discussed
with Jumblatt the need for a political program to attract
more followers to the movement. A clearer structure and a
program would be good. But "at the end of the day the
Christians want a leader," and the movement needs to attract
Christians and Shia unhappy with Hizballah. Lebanon needs a
new president in order to encourage a Shia "third way." The
March 14 coalition needs to start encouraging a third option
for the Shia today, but it will take a long time to cultivate
and the 14 March movement cannot count on this to survive.


9. (C) The way to a new president is through an
international tribunal that follows from the UNIIIC, Mouawad
believes; just starting the process and seeing the prospect
of a conviction will be enough to end Lahoud's term.
Brammertz will be obliged in his final report to give an
opinion on the case, Michel said, indicating he believed that
opinion might be damning enough to oust Lahoud. If the
cabinet received a draft of the tribunal legislation today it
might reach a decision in two to three weeks. The
legislation should be considered "the sooner the better," and
the March 14 coalition is determined to use its two-thirds
majority to pass the tribunal legislation in parliament.
Mouawad says Saad Hariri has assured her that Nabih Berri
will vote with them or at least abstain, and she believes
Hizballah would not dare oppose the legislation.

FIGHTING IRANIAN FUNDING WITH NGO WORK
--------------


9. (C) Mouawad returned to the theme of her frustration that
Siniora is micromanaging reconstruction and has sidelined
both her ministry and civil society from the rebuilding
process. Mouawad is looking to expand her family NGO's
programs -- specifically a youth employment and agricultural
support program that received USAID funding -- to the south
and to a more diverse sectarian base. Michel Mouawad was
frank about his desire to use the program to appeal to a more
strategic political base. The Mouawad family charity has
taken a small USAID infusion and benefited over 2500 farmers
and 1500 young people by creating above-market-rate seasonal
work picking apples. The Mouawads hope to extend this
program to olive picking, are looking for local partners to
help them expand into the south, and aim to reach a broader
swath of the population. Michel Mouawad is intent on using
aid to bolster support among more of the "politically
homeless" Christians. Paying young men and women to do
seasonal work in agriculture outside their hometowns gives
them hope, pocket money, and a new range of contacts, and is
a replacement for Syrian day laborers. U.S. involvement in
such projects is known and much appreciated on the ground,
Michel opined.


10. (C) Michel also expressed concerns about a recent
increase in Iranian funding to Islamic groups in Zagarta.
Saudi funding has also increased, he said, but is mainly
going through the government to schools. Iranian funding is
"less politically correct" and is passed out directly rather
than through state channels. "We are waging a national
battle," Mouawad said, "and Iran is playing." We need to
strengthen the poorer areas through social programs to resist
Iranian influence.

PEACE PROCESS

BEIRUT 00003226 003 OF 003


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11. (C) Progress toward an Israeli-Palestinian settlement
would help the situation in Lebanon, and is needed to get
Iran out of the region. The 14 March movement alone cannot
move Lebanon forward, but needs international pressure on
Iran and Syria, Mouawad said.

ELECTORAL REFORM
--------------


12. (C) The electoral law as proposed by Fouad Butrous is
not good, Michel commented. It has technical problems that
could have been solved if the Commission had taken advantage
of technical assistance offers, and "practically and
politically it won't work." Its first problem is its call
for proportionality; the low threshold for participation will
lead to a preponderance of small parties represented and
cause instability in a country which requires a clear
majority to form an effective government. Secondly,
confessional leaders won't accept representatives from
outside their confessional group, and as a result Lebanon
will have to be divided into smaller electoral districts.
FELTMAN