LEBANON: DEFENSE MINISTER POSITIVE ON UNIFIL,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003225

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL MASS LE SY IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: DEFENSE MINISTER POSITIVE ON UNIFIL,
PESSIMISTIC ON POLITICS

SUMMARY
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1. (S) Defense Minister Murr is positive on the deployment of
and cooperation between the LAF and UNIFIL. On the political
scene, Murr is pessimistic about potential future Hizballah
and FPM demonstrations. Deeply worried about Shia-Sunni
tensions that he fears Internal Security Forces could
inadvertently exacerbate, Murr intends to use the LAF, if
necessary, to control any demonstrations that pose a threat.
End Summary.

LAF/UNIFIL COOPERATION IN SOUTH
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2. (S) Ambassador and poloff met October 4 with Deputy Prime
Minister and Defense Minister Elias Murr. Responding to the
Ambassador's questions about possible collusion between the
LAF and Hizballah, Murr gave an upbeat assessment on
deployment of LAF and UNIFIL troops in the South. He stated
that he was receiving reports twice a day from UNIFIL and the
reports had not indicated any problem. He admitted, however,
that he had just begun receiving the reports this week. He
felt cooperation between LAF and UNIFIL was going well;
presently 16,000 LAF troops are deployed in the south. In
cooperation with UNIFIL deployments, over 80 LAF check points
have been established in the south. Ambassador inquired
whether the LAF deployments had discovered any illicit arms
caches. Murr replied that "no arms had been found" in the
areas the LAF had just taken over, but he chalked this up to
the fact that the LAF had only been in those areas for a day
or two. In terms of the other parts of the south, Murr said,
without elaboration, that weapons had indeed been found and
confiscated.

RESOLUTION OF UNIFIL LAND ISSUE
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3. (S) The Ambassador inquired about the UNIFIL French
contingent's problem of private landowners not leasing
property to billet its troops due to non-payment by the GOL.
Murr stated that payment of $800K had been made to the
landowners for past use of their land and an additional $1.5
million credit had been set aside to cover UNIFIL's land
needs over the next five years. He stated any continuing
problem in this area will be a result of slow payment
processing by the Finance Ministry. The Ambassador said he
would address this issue with Finance Minister Jihad Azour in
their next meeting. Finally, Murr added that there was "no
truth" to the rumors that Hizballah was pressuring private
landowners not to lease land to UNIFIL.

NO TRUTH TO ARMS SMUGGLING TUNNELS
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4. (S) Murr quickly dismissed rumors of tunnels running
underneath the Syrian/Lebanon borders for smuggling arms for
Hizballah and other Syrian agents. He said it was "quiet on
the border" and the tunnel rumors were "false." He claimed
smuggling in the Akkar area would, because of the geography,
require the building of tunnels 18KM to 24 KM in length,
which would be "unfeasible" in his opinion.

TOUGH POLITICAL TIMES AHEAD AFTER RAMADAN
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5. (S) Murr was much more pessimistic about the political
situation in Beirut, although he did not seem overly
concerned about either a potential demonstration by Hizballah
or the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) rally by set for October

15. He allowed that both groups had the same aim: producing
political gridlock, either by toppling Siniora's government
or blocking its ability to act. Neither Hizballah or FPM
really want a national unity government that would work. The
use of demonstrations to whip up support is the "only real
way" Hizballah and FPM could promote their cause. In doing
so, they give the public two stark choices: civil war or the
formation of a national unity government. The public,
naturally, finds the second option more reasonable.

LAF TO STOP VIOLENT DEMONSTRATIONS
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BEIRUT 00003225 002 OF 002



6. (S) Murr stated that he was prepared to use the LAF to
confront violent demonstrations in the streets. He would
rather have the LAF enforce control over demonstration than
wait for the ISF to react. His concern is based on the
perception of the ISF as a Sunni-dominated force. Murr cited
the Sunni extremist riots of February 5, when the ISF did not
use the required force to stop the destruction of Christian
property, and noted that there has been doubt regarding the
political balance of the ISF. He noted that, in the past,
the ISF's Sunni command was often balanced by the fact that
the Minister of Interior, who supervises the ISF Commander,
was usually Christian. Now, both the Minister and the ISF
Commander are Sunni, as is the head of the ISF's powerful
intelligence bureau. So the whole ISF, despite talented
officers of other confessions, has acquired a Sunni flavor.

COMMENT
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7. (S) We don't know what accounts for Murr's rosy
assessment of the UNIFIL-LAF cooperation and roles in the
south: is he being misled, does he want to mislead/reassure
us, or is he truly satisifed? Certainly, the situation is
better than it was in June, when UNIFIL was smaller and no
LAF soldiers were present for miles. But Hizballah, while
now somewhat hemmed in, nevertheless seems by most reports to
have maintained more freedom of movement that UNSCR 1701
intends.


8. (S) As for Murr's comments regarding Sunni-Shia
tensions, we agree fully that Hizballah and Michel Aoun are
succeeding in portraying the ISF as a Sunni militia. This is
an unfair charge, but it is one that has been broadly
accepted as fact by many followers of Aoun and Hizballah. As
the LAF still enjoys a solid reputation as a national
institution representing all communities, use of the LAF in
the case of Shia-Sunni clashes would be less provocative than
use of the ISF. The question is whether the LAF has the
capacity to maintain its current deployments in the south and
along the Syrian borders while also responding to internal
disputes.
FELTMAN