LEBANON: PM SINIORA PLEDGES ACTION ON BEIRUT 1

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003219

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016
TAGS: EAID LE PGOV PREL PTER KCRM
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PM SINIORA PLEDGES ACTION ON BEIRUT 1
CONFERENCE, RECONSTRUCTION, AND TRIBUNAL


Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Prime Minister Siniora insists that preparations for
the Beirut 1 conference, penciled in for November 30, are
well underway. He is slowly grasping the need to publicize
progress on reconstruction but prefers to focus on
high-profile projects. He will use such publicity to counter
March 8 attacks on his government, while pursuing a
methodical effort to pass a statute establishing a tribunal
in the assassination of former PM Hariri. He and his
advisors pledged to look into whether UNTSO might be able to
play a role in surveillance of all of Lebanon's borders. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) Prime Minister Fouad Siniora received the
Ambassador, S/CRS Coordinator and Polchief at the Grand
Serail on October 4. Siniora's close advisors Mohammad
Chatah and Rola Noureddine attended the meeting, and the
group consulted with Siniora's Finance and Justice Ministers
by conference call.

BEIRUT 1 CONFERENCE PREPARATIONS
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3. (C) The Ambassador asked the PM for a progress report on
preparations for the planned Beirut I donors conference. The
PM confirmed that November 30, or thereabouts, was the target
date. (Note: The Ambassador has repeatedly raised with
Siniora the need for better coordination of recovery and
reconstruction activities and the critical need for a
focused, intense public relations effort to inform the
Lebanese public of what the GOL is doing on their behalf.
End Note.) Chatah answered that the Minsiter of Finance is
working on the package for the conference, which should be
complete by the end of October. The Prime Minister
emphasized the conference will focus on reconstruction and
reform, and putting the economy as a whole on a growth track.
It will look at financing measures to revive sectors damaged
by the conflict; private sector financing will be one focus,
but debt relief will be the bulk of the assistance that will
be required, Chatah added. The IMF team currently in Beirut
is developing a baseline scenario, to assess how to put the
economy and debt burden on a sustainable level. Chatah
advised that the total impact of the conflict is very large,
both fiscal and financial.


4. (C) The Ambassador agreed that it is important to make the
international conference a success. He stressed the GOL must
make it possible for donors to begin their own preparations
for the conference right away, noting that preparations for
the Paris II conference had months, not just weeks. PM
advised that the GOL team for Beirut 1 would be Minister
Finance Jihad Azour; Minister of Economy Sami Hadded, Central
Bank Governor Riad Salameh, Head of the Council for
Development and Reconstruction Nabil Jisr, Chatah, and
himself. Finance Minister Azour would be the central player.
The PM noted that, once the package was ready, the GOL would
do a series of bilateral "road shows" to sell it to donors
in the region before the conference. He noted the proposals
had been well-received by the Core Group in last month's
Singapore IFI meetings. The Ambassador responded that the
donors are looking for more specifics as soon as possible.


5. (C) The Ambassador reiterated that the GOL needs to do a
much better job of getting the word out about its progress on
reconstruction. Siniora did not dispute the point; the GOL
has accomplished much, he said, and few people realize it.
The Ambassador suggested that reconstruction coordinator
Ghassan Taher-Fadlallah could hold daily press conferences.
Siniora said he was focused on getting high profile projects
started, including the Mdeirej bridge project being
undertaken by the USG and Italy.

SECURITY COORDINATION
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6. (C) The Ambassador asked the PM about a news story that
the EU would begin a formalized security cooperation

BEIRUT 00003219 002 OF 002


arrangement with Lebanon, and the PM said that there was no
basis for the story. He told us that he received a call
from EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who said he would
issue a clarification to the press. Siniora said that
European defense ministers had agreed to provide assistance
that Lebanon requires, but had not agreed on a formalized
arrangement.

HARIRI TRIBUNAL
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7. (C) When asked by the Ambassador, Siniora said that the
draft statute establishing a tribunal in the assassination of
former PM Hariri would be seen by the Council of Ministers
either once or twice, depending on action on the statute by
the UNSC. If UNSC members give their approval to a final
draft soon, the cabinet will only need to approve the draft
once. But if the New York consultations are not concluded
quickly, then the cabinet can approve it once in principle
and revisit it as needed. After conferring with Justice
Minister Rizk by phone, he mentioned that Rizk might travel
to New York for consultations with UN Legal Advisor Nicolas
Michel on the draft.

NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT AND MARCH 8 ACTION
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8. (C) On March 14/March 8 tensions, Siniora said he would
suggest to his opponents solving the problem of the
Presidency before establishing a broader cabinet. He would
also try to "reduce tensions" and return vigor, and
publicity, to the GOL's reconstruction program. Economic
recovery and a new political marketing campaign, which he has
floated to Walid Jumblatt, could help March 14's fortunes.
He did not comment substantively on the Ambassador's point
that the PM and his March 14 supporters needs to come up with
ways to deflect attention from the national unity government
arguments, which are sounding increasingly reasonable to too
many people.

UNIFIL/UNTSO DEPLOYMENTS
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9. (C) The Ambassador noted that the Embassy had an
intriguing briefing recently from the UN Truce Supervisory
Observer Mission, UNTSO, which maintains four observation in
southern Lebanon. The UNTSO officials claimed that, unlike
UNIFIL, UNTSO's area of operations includes all of Lebanon,
as well as Syria and Israel. The Ambassador asked whether
this authority, if indeed it exists, might allow UNTSO to
play a role elsewhere in Lebanon. Siniora and his advisors
said they would look into the possibility of a broader role
for UNTSO to include monitoring the Syrian border. Siniora
asked Noureddine to look through the documents relating to
the 1949 Armistice Agreement. On land for UNIFIL, Siniora
said that he had heard no complaints since the cabinet took
up the issue and pledged to compensate landowners in the
south.
FELTMAN