LEBANON: SUNNI MP DESCRIBES SYRIAN MACHINATIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003200 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2016 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL PTER LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: SUNNI MP DESCRIBES SYRIAN MACHINATIONS, HIZBALLAH STRENGTHS Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) An Sunni politician from Tripoli shared with DCM his observations of Syrian inroads into the Sunni community in Tripoli, views of the Prime Minister's performance and political strength during the reconstruction period, and an evaluation of Hizballah's current position. He also shared word of President Lahoud's abuse of public funds at the UNGA. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Mosbah Ahdab, a March 14 affiliated Sunni MP from Tripoli and member of former MP Nassib Lahoud's Democratic Renewal Movement, who just returned from a program of visits to policymakers in Washington, visited DCM and polchief on September 29. He recounted the warm reception he had received in Washington, including a spontaneous invitation to be present on the Senate floor during a vote. He noted to us that while Lebanon has formal parliament-to-parliament relationships with most major countries, it has none with the United States. (Comment: Given the reluctance of Speaker Berri or even individual Lebanese MPs to participate, in the current political climate, in programs we have proposed with the U.S. Congress, this may not be the time to explore this possibility. However, at a more propitious time such a program could be helpful in developing Lebanon's political leaders and parties, and fostering greater trust of the USG. End Comment.) SYRIA ATTEMPTS TO BREAK SUNNI LEADERS AWAY FROM MARCH 14 -------------- ¶3. (C) Ahdab described for us some features of an apparent Syrian strategy to influence Sunni politicians and religious leaders in his native city of Tripoli. Former PM Najib Mikati is paying a supplementary salary to sheikhs in Tripoli, in addition to the salary they receive locally which is usually insufficient to support a family. Sunni Public Works and Transport Minister Mohammad Safadi, also from Tripoli, has apparently strengthened his ties to Damascus. According to Ahdab, Safadi was seen crossing Lebanon's northern border to Syria to use his private aircraft parked at the airport at the Syrian port of Latakia, suggesting that he has influential friends in Damascus. ¶4. (C) Safadi wants to be Prime Minister, Ahdab maintained, but has not practiced the largesse in his public spending that he would need to in order to have a successful candidacy. He has been moving close to March 8 figure Michel Aoun and getting involved with Syrian ally Suleiman Franjieh. Nonetheless, he is "not too clever" according to Ahdab, and Syria's true candidate for the Prime Ministership is probably Mikati. SINIORA AND RECONSTRUCTION -------------- ¶5. (C) Ahdab had a mixed assessment of the Prime Minister's performance and effectiveness in the post-crisis period. Echoing what many of the PM's friends and backers have told us, Siniora is doing a great job of managing those economic and reconstruction issues he has taken on but has not built a real team or utilized the talents of his ministers. The PM and his advisors also need to review their proposed economic reform and recovery plans to ensure that they address the concerns of the poor, and also make sure that the international financial institutions and other donors do the same. ¶6. (C) Compounding this problem for the PM is that he has no real media or communications cell in his office. While he and his team may be accomplishing progress, there is no strategy to get the word out to the public, which may become increasingly skeptical. HIZBALLAH -------------- ¶7. (C) On the subject of reconstruction, Ahdab said that if the GOL does not take effective action soon to take the limelight from Hizballah, then Hizballah will become even stronger. Effective reconstruction programs are a start. BEIRUT 00003200 002 OF 002 Many observers are betting on Parliament Speaker Berri as an alternative Shia leader to Hassan Nasrallah, but this is a mistake, Ahdab said. Berri's popularity is tainted by his association with corruption, and his followers are the same as Nasrallah's. Berri will not force them to choose for fear that he will come out the loser. On the security front, Hizballah's rearmament will have to be countered by a program to pay witnesses and informants for information leading to weapons confiscation. BAD BEHAVIOR AT UNGA -------------- ¶8. (C) According to Ahdab, President Emile Lahoud spent excessive public funds as head of the Lebanese delegation at UNGA in New York. Ahdab's sources told him that in one example, Lahoud hosted a dinner at a cost of over $400,000, featuring French singer Charles Aznavour. We have yet to see press reporting indicating that this or any other story of the Lebanese delegation's alleged profligacy has become public. FELTMAN