LEBANON: AOUN USES CONFERENCE ON THE DISPLACED TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003176 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2016 TAGS: LE PGOV PREF PREL SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN USES CONFERENCE ON THE DISPLACED TO SMEAR RIVALS, ENERGIZE BASE Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: Section 1.4 (d ). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) A September 30 conference on Lebanon's long-displaced Chouf Christians highlighted corruption and failure in the management of the Ministry of the Displaced. But its more important goal was to provide a stage for Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun. Aoun took advantage of the platform to energize his Christian base, smear political rivals with charges of corruption, and stimulate more of the anti-Sunni sentiment that has been creeping into political discourse in the last few weeks. Aoun's rivals hit back even before the event, promising action on the displaced and accusing Aoun of inciting confessional strife. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On September 30 General Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) held a conference entitled "Right of Return." The conference's nominal purpose was to address the issue of displaced Lebanese Christians from the Chouf who fled Druze reprisals following the 1977 assassination of Kamal Jumblatt. ¶3. (C) In conversations with polchief, FPM officials maintained that preparations for the conference were years in the making, and that the conference itself had been scheduled a month earlier. However, there was no announcement of the conference until the previous weekend, when Samir Ja'ja gave an influential address to a pro-March 14 crowd in Harissa, itself an answer to September 22's massive Hizballah rally. ¶4. (SBU) According to a readout from our FPM contacts, 84,000 Christians fled their homes in 1977 and only 17 percent of them have returned since then. Meanwhile, the FPM alleges, the Ministry of the Displaced has spent at least USD 1.6 billion to achieve this meager result. (omment: These expenditures are according to the official records, our contacts say; unofficial expenditures may be higher. End Comment.) The Ministry of the Dispalced is a Druze stronghold, and for most of its existenceQt has been under the control of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. THE SPEECH -------------- ¶5. (C) A principal motivation for the conference was the FPM's interest in smearing Jumblatt, a key member of the 14 March political movement. Aoun called for a special tribunal (though not an international one) to investigate the Ministry of the Displaced's finances. (Note: the FPM and Hizballah have recently adopted an anti-corruption focus on which to criticize their 14 March rivals, and the financial record of this Ministry is a strong issue for the FPM. End Note.) Aoun gave some examples of alleged corruption, including a village in which Druze inhabitants were compensated for "giving up" 144 houses which were shown to have been fictitious. ¶6. (SBU) Aoun sharpened his focus on Jumblatt, saying that instead of apologizing for his previous ties to Syria, Jumblatt should apologize for the massacres of Christians during the Civil War. The demand for an apology was the latest in a series of verbal jabs -- following on a reference to Hizballah's demand that Jumblatt apologize for calling its followers "mindless," and Jumblatt's riposte that he had nothing to be sorry for other than his long alignment with Damascus. ¶7. (C) Aoun also was clearly interested in shoring up his Christian support, which may indicate some anxiety on the FPM's part about its loss of popularity among Christians. (Note: FPM leaders Ibrahim Kanaan and Gebran Bassil have admitted to polchief that the party has lost popularity, but insist that they are unrivalled among Lebanon's Christians and that the popularity will return.) Aoun called for an accounting of all Lebanese prisoners in Syria. Aoun may have intended by this appeal to put himself behind a popular Christian cause while disguising the cozy relationship he is assumed to enjoy with Damascus. ¶8. (SBU) Touching on another popular Christian issue, Aoun BEIRUT 00003176 002 OF 003 called for the return of Lebanese refugees who fled to Israel with the IDF withdrawal in 2000. Those refugees mainly fled from fear of Hizballah reprisals, and Aoun claimed that he had been working with Hizballah to ensure a smooth and safe return for them. (One Hizballah delegate to the conference, Ali Ammar, could be seen to smile in approval when Aoun touched on this topic.) All these refugees, or at least the men, would be expected to face charges under Lebanese law for "visiting" Israel, however. Aoun claimed that talks on reducing or waiving these charges had broken down due to the intransigence of March 14 forces. ¶9. (SBU) Further stoking the anti-Sunni heat, Aoun cited the case of Sultan Abu al-Einein, the Fatha commander in Lebanon, who had been under the death penalty in Lebanon for making threats against the Defense Ministry prior to 2005, and who was quickly exonerated at the instigation of March 14 leaders when the Syrians left. Aoun implied that Christians who fled to Israel should be exonerated too. To heighten suspicions that the Sunni Lebanese leadership seeks to strengthen Lebanon's Palestinian refugees for use against Shia and Christians, Aoun also claimed that former PM Rafiq al-Hariri had sought a deal with Arab countries to forgive Lebanon's debt in exchange for Lebanese naturalization of the Palestinians. ¶10. (SBU) In a slap against Christian rival Samir Ja'ja', Aoun accused the GOL of marginalizing Christians and "pushing Christians to call for federalism...to divide this country." Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah had also called proposals for a federal or "canton" solution unacceptable in his September 22 speech. ¶11. (SBU) Aoun dismissed acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat as "illegal," demanding to know why PM Siniora had not nominated a new Interior Minister after an alleged three-month delay. Aoun's attack on Fatfat came after the previous week's fray between Fatfat and the chief of the Surete Generale, Hizballah supporter Wafic Jezzini. ¶12. (SBU) Finally, he announced a rally for October 15, in commemoration of October 13, 1990 (when he was driven from the Baabda Palace by the Syrians),which may be a way to demonstrate independence from Damascus. REACTIONS -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The response from the March 14 camp was pro-active, even to the point of preempting Aoun. Siniora announced on Thursday that he would revisit the issue of the displaced and seek to energize efforts to resettle refugees. In a parallel move rivalling the FPM conference, Walid Jumblatt held a reconciliation ceremony at his headquarters in Mukhtara for local Druze residents and Christians who had returned to the area's village of Shahhar. Jumblatt and Minister of the Displaced Tohme announced the availability of funds to complete the return of refugees. ¶14. (SBU) After Aoun's speech, MP Saad Hariri called his allegation about a deal for the resettlement of Palestinian refugees a fabrication and a "racist incitement." Communications Minister Marwan Hamadeh criticized Aoun's speech as hampering the reconciliation between Christians and Druze in the Chouf begun by Maronite Patriarch Sfeir in 2001. COMMENT -------------- ¶15. (C) In calling for the conference one week after the duelling rallies of Hizballah and the Lebanese Forces, Aoun had two purposes; first, to add his voice to Hizballah's in attacking and weakening 14 March in general and Jumblatt in particular, as Jumblatt or his allies controlled the corruption-riddled Fund for the Displaced during much of its history. Aoun's second motivation may have been worries about his base and a need to shore it up. His remarks on Saturday were aimed at reviving Christian spirits as well as defaming rivals; the appeals for an accounting of prisoners in Syria and the return of Christians from Israel were designed to warm hearts. It may happen, however, that only by achieving results in these areas can Michel Aoun score a BEIRUT 00003176 003 OF 003 political victory and halt the political slide that the FPM has seen in recent months. End Comment. FELTMAN