CHANGING GOL VIEW ON CHRONOLOGY FOR INTRODUCTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 003162

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2026
TAGS: PREL KCRM PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: CHANGING GOL VIEW ON CHRONOLOGY FOR INTRODUCTING
HARIRI TRIBUNAL


Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C/NF) In separate one-on-one meetings with the
Ambassador on 9/30, Prime Minister Siniora and Minister of
Telecommunications Marwan Hamadeh both acknowledged that
their positions, and those of March 14 politicians more
generally, have evolved on when to engage Lebanon's cabinet
on trying to approve draft statute for the special tribunal
to try suspects in the assassination of Rafiq Hariri.
Minister of Justice Charles Rizk, speaking to the Ambassador
by phone on 9/30, also acknowledged the shift in chronology,
although he questioned whether it would work.


2. (C/NF) Under the previous scenario, Siniora planned to
put the draft statute that would create the tribunal on the
cabinet agenda only after UNSC members had, through informal
consultations with UN/OLA chief Nicolas Michel (the primary
UN negotiator of the statute),expressed satisfaction with
the text. This way, the cabinet would work with a text that
the UNSC members considered final, after Michel took the UNSC
comments into account. According to the previous scenario,
that UNSC blessing, even if not in the form of a resolution
(which we understand is not required),would help March 14
cabinet ministers win cabinet and then parliament approval.


3. (C/NF) Now, however, Siniora and Hamadeh fear that, by
early or mid-November, the March 14-dominated cabinet might
be in a full-fledged battle for survival, as Hizballah and
Aoun forces work to topple or expand the cabinet in favor of
a national unity government, precisely in order to block
approval of the tribunal. It will be relatively harder at
that point to pass the statute in the cabinet, they
calculate. Instead, the March 14 politicians want cabinet
approval "in principle" now, even ahead of the UNSC
consultations on the text. Then, with the approval "in
principle" in their pockets, and with the National Dialogue
on March having already given its blessing to the tribunal,
Siniora and Hamadeh calculate that it will be (in Hamadeh's
words) "next to impossible" for the cabinet to refuse to give
a final approval after the UNSC consultative process, even if
there are changes in the text. Moreover, Hamadeh notes, such
a chronology "keeps the tribunal in the headlines" for a
longer period of time, which is useful in order to keep Syria
slightly off balance. (Parliamentary ratification is
considered -- we hope rightly -- to be less of a problem, if
the cabinet approves the statute and sends it to the chamber
with a recommendation for its adoption into law.)


4. (C/NF) The exact timing of the cabinet approval "in
principle" is up in the air. Rizk, Siniora, and UN envoy
Geir Pedersen (also speaking by phone) all told the
Ambassador that Michel needs at least another week before he
can provide the current text to the Lebanese. Hamadeh,
citing "UN sources" (presumably Terje Roed-Larsen or his aide
Fabrice Aidan),insists that Lebanon will have the new
version of the text as early as Monday, 10/2. If so, the
cabinet debate could occur as early as the regular session on
Thursday. (Constitutionally, cabinet agendas must be drawn
up 48 hours in advance. Anything needing shorter notice
requires the approval of the President to be place on the
agenda.)


5. (C/NF) Comment: This is an interesting switch in
tactics and reveals the worry the March 14 crowd has
regarding how far Aoun and Hizballah will go in November in
changing the cabinet. But the chronology for approving the
draft statute has always has been a chicken-or-egg issue.
Whichever side approves the draft statute first -- UNSC
membership or Lebanon's cabinet -- might face having to look
at the text again, if the other side makes changes (as is
likely, even if just of a dog-and-fire-hydrant type). The
Hamadeh-Siniora approach of having the cabinet approve the
text "in principle," if it works, has the advantage of
keeping potentially recalcitrant members of the UNSC on
board: if Lebanon's cabinet accepts the draft in principle,
then UNSC members might be less inclined to oppose it. We
doubt, however, that this is the last word on tactics for
moving the draft statute forward. End comment.
FELTMAN