LEBANESE MINISTER ON: UNIIIC STATUTE, MERKEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003161 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2016 TAGS: LE PGOV PREL KCRM SUBJECT: LEBANESE MINISTER ON: UNIIIC STATUTE, MERKEL COMMENT, SYRIA-EU AGREEMENT, AND RECONSTRUCTION Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On 9/29, Telecommunications Minister Hamadeh shared with us his plans to introduce the special tribunal statute in next Thursday's cabinet meeting. He gave a readout from PM Siniora's recent trip to Strasbourg and Berlin, addressing the issues of Angela Merkel's characterization of the German participation in UNIFIL as "protecting Israel" and of the EU's plans to revive discussion of an Association Agreement with Syria. Finally, he agreed with us that the PM's management style, which allows for little delegation, has stalled the GOL reconstruction effort and may result in PR ground lost to Hizballah. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Ambassador and Polchief met with Druze Communications Minister Marwan Hamadeh at the home of former Deputy PM Fouad Boutros. Also present was former Central Bank Governor Sheikh Michel Khoury. Boutros, who chairs the commission to reform Lebanon's electoral law, and Khoury have been veterans of the Lebanon political scene for decades and, while octogenarians, remain committed to and active in Lebanon's political development. UNIIIC STATUTE TO CABINET NEXT WEEK -------------- ¶3. (C) With the recent release of the Brammertz report, our interlocutors were particularly focused on the progress of UNIIIC and the proposed special tribunal with international character. Hamadeh told us that he will place the draft statute for the tribunal on the agenda for next Thursday's cabinet meeting. The statute was edited with the help of UNIIIC judge Serge Brammertz to remove politically difficult "crimes against humanity" language; it is now in a form that the cabinet can swallow, Hamadeh said. The Ambassador noted that the Security Council has not yet vetted the latest draft, but Hamadeh said that Minister of Justice Rizk intends to introduce it in any case with the caveat that the international community may request changes. Should at some point before the cabinet meeting UNSC representatives review and support the text -- no formal UNSC approval is required -- so much easier will be the statute's approval by the cabinet; and changes can be taken on board. Hamadeh asked the Ambassador to seek Department support for the latest draft and said that he was making similar requests of the French and Russian Ambassadors in Beirut. EU TELLS SINIORA: ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT WITH SYRIA ON AGENDA -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) According to Hamadeh, in his meeting with EU Foreign Minister Javier Solana this week, Siniora was told that the idea of an EU Association Agreement with Syria was back on the EU's foreign policy agenda and would be the subject of meetings in October. Voices within the EU had long sought such an agreement, noting that Syria is the only country on the Mediterranean littoral with which the EU does not have one. The Agreement was completed years ago but blocked by the UK and the Netherlands, and following the assassination of former PM Rafiq al-Hariri French President Jacques Chirac put a hold on the project. (Note: the French remain opposed, to the best of our knowledge, and the Agreement will presumably not progress further before the resolution of the UNIIIC investigation. End Note.) MERKEL COMMENT ON ISRAEL -------------- ¶5. (C) In Berlin, according to Hamadeh, German Chancellor Angela Merkel repeated to PM Siniora her statement from mid-September that German forces deploying to Lebanon and off its coast would protect Israel. She explained that this formulation was not a misstatement and is in fact taken in Lebanon's interest. Hamadeh expressed his approval of the German formulation, noting that it makes political sense and that Germany's contribution to a UN force so close to Israel is a very sensitive matter. BEIRUT 00003161 002 OF 002 PRESSING SINIORA FOR ACTION ON RECONSTRUCTION -------------- ¶6. (C) The Ambassador mentioned his disappointment with the pace of reconstruction activities and the lack of delegation exercised by Siniora, who seems determined to micromanage reconstruction projects without sufficient coordination. He, along with other donor and P5 Ambassadors in Beirut, will present a demarche to the PM encouraging greater efficiency and noting the importance of making Lebanon's reconstruction a success. The group agreed that Siniora's management style does not delegate or use his ministers sufficiently. Hamadeh said that Walid Jumblatt and Saad Hariri are planning to make a similar approach to the PM in the next few days, citing the danger that Hizballah could score a PR victory over the GOL unless the latter begins to make a tangible difference in the lives of those affected by the conflict with Israel. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) We were surprised by Hamadeh's statement that the cabinet could debate the Hariri tribunal statute as early as next Thursday. Hamadeh's argument was that the cabinet needs to address this issue now, before Hizballah and Aoun together build momentum to topple Siniora's government after Ramadan. Until Hamadeh's comments today, we had understood that Siniora would not allow cabinet discussion on the draft statute until he received word that UNSC members were comfortable with the draft. The Ambassador will see Siniora on 9/30 to ask his thinking and caution him that UNSC members may ask for changes in the text. If that happens, Siniora needs to be prepared to bring the revised draft back to the cabinet -- or else pass the draft in such a way that minor changes don't need cabinet approval (perhaps by having the cabinet designate Minister of Justice Rizk as authorized to accept changes). We note that, after the cabinet passes the draft, it still must win parliamentary ratification. FELTMAN