LEBANON: SAAD HARIRI PLAYS HARBALL WITH HIZBALLAH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003129

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016
TAGS: KCRM LE PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SAAD HARIRI PLAYS HARBALL WITH HIZBALLAH
AND ADVOCATES REGIME CHANGE IN SYRIA


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Ambassador Feltman and econoff on 27 September met
with Saad Hariri to talk about his strategy during and
following Ramadan. Hariri plans to renew dialogue with
Hizballah at a lower level but will not meet with General
Aoun to avoid alienating his moderate Christian allies.
Hariri described his new regional initiative to put Lebanese
Christians in touch with Gulf Arab leaders. He also urged a
harder USG line on Syrian and Iran, arguing that regime
change in Syria would weaken Iran, and that the Saudis and
Egyptians are taking a harder line than ever on Iran. End
summary.

PLANNING FOR POST-RAMADAN POLITICS
AND PREVENTING STREET CONFRONTATIONS
--------------


2. (C) Just back from more than a week in Saudi Arabia,
Hariri reported that he is reaching out to reinvigorate his
popular base. He plans to receive and deliver strong speeches
to over 20,000 people at his nightly Iftar dinners (each
seating a thousand or more),reaching even more via video.
He also described his Ramadan initiative to have Lebanese
Christian leaders receive the Maronite Patriarch Sfeir's
blessing to go to Saudia Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
to meet with leaders, as a way of bolstering the profile of
March 14 Christians.


3. (C) After cutting off all contact with Hizballah after
the July 12 kidnapping, Hariri also plans to restart talks
with Hizballah intermediaries as well as Parliament Speaker
Nabih Berri in the next few days. Hariri says he is prepared
to play hardball with Hizballah, and will deliver a clear
message about what he wants and expects. This includes full
implementation of UNSC resolution 1701 and Hizballah's
disarmament if Lebanon regains control of Shebaa farms. He
believes Hizballah and Michel Aoun are incapable of toppling
the government, but says he is ready to face them if they go
down that path. If Hizballah will not give up its weapons
after Shebaa becomes Lebanese, Hariri says he is prepared to
call them traitors. Hizballah's real goals are supporting
Iran and preventing a tribunal.


4. (C) The Future bloc has absolutely no contact with
General Aoun these days. Answering the Ambassador's
question, Hariri said that will not restart dialogue with
him. First, Hariri considers Aoun unimportant; second,
Hariri said that meeting with Aoun would undermine his own
Christian allies.


5. (C) Noting the dangers of the currently polarized
political rhetoric, Ambassador Feltman suggested that Hariri
pick a few truly national issues, such as something that the
National Dialogue issued a decision on but was not able to
resolve, and organize some new activity on it under the
leadership of Berri, but with the participation of Aoun.
This might defuse Aoun and get him involved in something
constructive and help to convince Aounists that they don,t
need to fight for a "national unity" government. Hariri
scoffed at Aoun's ability to mobilize protestors, arguing
that past protests showed that he could not bring out
significant numbers of protesters, unlike Hizballah. The
"national unity government" initiative and Nasrallah's tough
rhetoric during Iftar speeches are Hizballah's attempts to
scare the March 14 forces and rally people to go to the
streets.

"REGIME CHANGE IN SYRIA
WOULD WEAKEN IRAN"
--------------


6. (C) Responding to the second Brammertz report, Hariri's
interpretation was, "Brammertz knows it all but won't tell
yet." Hariri expressed surprise only at Brammertz's
confidence in the investigation and at what he described as
American determination to view Syria as "innocent until
proven guilty."


7. (C) The US and EU are focusing too much on Iran and
should focus more on Syria during Ramadan, Hariri opined.
Since Iran needs Syria, more pressure on Syria will hurt

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Iran. Regime change in Syria would weaken Iran because Syria
is Iran's hand in Lebanon, Iraq, and parts of Palestine.
Iran has Hamas, Al-Qaida in some places, and Hizballah. The
Saudis and Egyptians are no longer pro-Assad, and are now
very tough with Iran and Syria. Hariri met with French
President Chirac last month and believes that the EU might
consider a tougher line on Iran. The other Arab nations,
though, still prefer to punish Iran with sanctions.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) While Hariri is apparently going to renew his
contact with Hizballah after a two-plus month suspension, we
did not have the impression -- as some have argued -- that
he's about to go over to the dark side. Hariri described
Hizballah in harsh language and spoke of having to even the
score after Nasrallah "screwed" him in July (when Nasrallah
met with Hariri to talk for hours about economic development,
only two days before the kidnapping operation that so
undermined Lebanon's economic development). In the context
of the overheated political atmosphere in Lebanon today, most
Lebanese (with the notable exception of Michel Aoun) will
exhale in relief if Hizballah and the Hariris meet.
FELTMAN