LEBANON: CODEL LAHOOD MEETS WITH MP SAAD AL-HARIRI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003126

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SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2016
TAGS: LE PREL
SUBJECT: LEBANON: CODEL LAHOOD MEETS WITH MP SAAD AL-HARIRI

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (U) Calling on Mustaqbal ("Future") Party leader and MP
Saad al-Hariri in his Qureitem mansion, CODEL Lahood
repeatedly expressed its support for Lebanon and solicited
Hariri's suggestions for their upcoming meeting with Israeli
PM Olmert and for action upon their return to the US.
Congressman Lahood noted the CODEL had toured war-damaged
areas, met the Prime Minister, and would lay a wreath on
Rafiq al-Hariri's grave; he asked how the delegation could
help Lebanon's democracy and economy. Congressman Reyes
noted the stark contrast between the state of Lebanon when he
visited a year prior, at which time Lebanon had rebuilt
impressively and the big issue was the economic reform
program. Congressman Boustany reiterated his support for
Lebanon, expressed concern over the continuing arms
smuggling, and asked for suggestions as to how the delegation
could convince Israel to lift the blockade. End summary.

WAR DAMAGE
--------------


2. (C) CODEL Lahood, consisting of Congressmen Ray Lahood,
Charles Boustany and Silvestre Reyes, visited MP and
Mustaqbal ("Future") Party Leader Saad Hariri in his Qureitem
mansion. Hariri shared his thoughts on Lebanon's position
nearly three weeks after the cessation of hostilities.
Hariri suggested that the war had "put Lebanon back on the
radar screen" and offered an opportunity to build "a better
democracy and a better Lebanon. If we implement resolution
1701 fully and with dedication," Hariri continued, "there is
a big opportunity to move forward. As the leader of the
Future Party, I'm committed to implement 1701." There is now
an opportunity to take Lebanon out of the regional context in
which it has been the battleground of its neighbors. Lebanon
is the only moderate democracy in the Middle East, he said.
"We're the model -- not the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, for
example."


3. (C) The war had, however, had a huge impact on Lebanon and
its people. Israel's targeting was incomprehensible,
according to Hariri. Over 125,000 buildings had been
affected, out of which 20,000 were completely destroyed,
40,000 heavily damaged, 30,000 partially damaged, and the
rest slightly damaged. Lebanon's important tourism sector
was decimated, and there is a continuing degradation of
Lebanon's economy due to the blockade. Congressman Lahood
noted the CODEL had toured war-damaged areas, met the Prime
Minister and would lay a wreath on Rafiq al-Hariri's grave.

BLOCKADE
--------------


4. (SBU) While the security concerns that are cited as
justification for the blockade do exist, Hariri continued,
the main problem is Syria. Lebanon is being punished even
though Syria is the source of the arms smuggling to
Hizballah. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are doing what
they can, but are short of crucial equipment. Lebanon
doesn't ask for or need Patriot missiles, F-15's, F-16's, or
Apache helicopters, Hariri said, but it does need light
weapons and some helicopters to impose its authority on the
entirety of Lebanon's territory.


5. (C) The blockade is undermining the government and its
anti-smuggling efforts, Hariri said. Israel has learned
nothing from its treatment of Palestinian leaders Yasser
Arafat and Abu Mazen, he added. Its sanctions on them
produced and then strengthened Hamas, and its sanctions on
Lebanon are strengthening Hizballah, he said. This war has
nothing to do with Lebanon, he continued. It is an Iranian
war on Israel. Still, we have told Hizballah that it must
act Lebanese; no one will sit back and allow them to do
"these things" again.

STRENGTHENING AND DEPLOYING THE LAF
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6. (C) Prompted for specific recommendations, Hariri said

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that the focus should be on assisting the LAF and ISF. The
Lebanese security services can't perform if they don't have
teeth. While some international observers are afraid that
assistance to the LAF will end up in Hizballah's hands, that
couldn't happen, Hariri asserted. There is no love between
the security services and Hizballah, Hariri asserted, and
noted that the LAF had refused to use force against the March
14, 2005 demonstrators, despite the orders of the Syrians and
the Lebanese leaders they controlled. The LAF has begun
seizing weapons effectively, and the more the US helps the
LAF the better they will perform.


7. (C) The simple fact of the LAF's deployment to the south
of Lebanon is the biggest defeat for Hizballah, Hariri
continued. They can't fire missiles at Israel any more --
even the Shi'a inhabitants of the south would turn on them.
People have now begun to realize that Hizballah is
responsible for ruining their lives. If the army can
reestablish its presence and sovereignty, they will realize
that the GOL is the solution to their problems, not
Hizballah, and that Hizballah is just an agent of Iran.
Those who opposed Hizballah before will now be freer to
oppose them, and may begin to counter some of their
activities such as stealing and diverting electricity. When
Congressman Lahood sounded encouragement that people in the
south are becoming disenchanted with Hizballah, Hariri
predicted "you will hear more and more of this."

ARMS SMUGGLING
--------------


8. (C) Congressman Boustany cited the potential for
continuing arms smuggling and asked how Hariri would use his
parliamentary position and clout to achieve a solution.
Hariri frankly admitted that he would not take the lead on
this issue in the Parliament or in public. To do so, he
asserted, would be to invite civil unrest and a potential
"bloodbath" because of his own relatively narrow support in
Lebanon. Right now, he continued, "Hizballah is on the
ground. I don't want to kick him in the stomach. I want to
take his weapon away and tell him he must become Lebanese."
PM Siniora, however, is now in a strong enough position in
the political and public eyes to take steps against Hizballah
without suffering retaliation.


9. (C) Additionally, Speaker Berri has "changed colors" and
lined up behind the GOL. As a Shi'a leader, he and his Amal
movement can counter Hizballah's claim to protect Shi'a
interests -- when it is really protecting Iran. Even if Iran
pays $20,000 or $30,000 to someone who has spent his life
building a house that was destroyed, he won't forgive
Hizballah. Hariri concluded, "So now it is a delicate
situation, but if everyone plays their role it won't take
long" to put Hizballah in its place.


10. (C) Still, only with international help can Lebanon
contain and defeat Hizballah's arms smuggling, Hariri said.
Iran has been financing Hizballah with $7-8 billion over the
past several years and the international community did
nothing. Syria left Lebanon only because of the combination
of Lebanese protesters in Martyr's Square and US pressure and
warnings to Damascus. The LAF desperately needs equipment,
and can't even communicate among its units. Recognizing the
importance of showing progress, though, Hariri added "I will
talk to them and there will be more transparency on this
issue."

SOLUTIONS AND FOLLOWUP
--------------


11. (C) "If you want to give the coup de grace to Hizballah,"
Hariri continued, "do something on the Shebaa Farms. But do
it for the government, not for Hizballah. Make it a victory
for diplomacy. And also, implement the Armistice."


12. (C) Congressman Boustany asked whether it would be a loss
of face for Lebanon to allow international forces to deploy
along the Syrian border. Hariri responded that as long as
the Israelis are in the country it would be politically
impossible, but that the idea could be looked at later.
Still, ultimately, a country can not "subcontract" its border
control -- even to the German technical assistance teams

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which have been planned for Lebanon.


13. (C) Reacting to Hariri's praise for Lebanon's democracy,
Congressman Lahood cited his deep disappointment with the
Parliament's vote to extend the mandate of President Emile
Lahoud. He also noted that the day after the September 11,
2001 attacks the US Congress met in session and invited the
President to address the Congress, and that the President did
so just five days after the attacks. Why had Lebanon's
Parliament not met since well before the recent conflict with
Israel? Hariri protested that Lahoud's mandate was extended
under threat from Syria, and that the Parliament sit-in
organized by Speaker Berri is among other things a protest
against Lahoud's refusal to call an extraordinary session of
Parliament.


14. (C) Congressman Reyes asked whether Hariri could press
Hizballah to return the two kidnapped Israeli soldiers.
Hariri predicted, "the soldiers won't die. Hizballah won't
make a stupid mistake. But I'm focused on disarmament."


15. (U) Reyes, Lahood and Boustany reiterated their support
for Lebanon and their determination to bring the issues of
the blockade, Lebanon's anti-smuggling efforts, and its
suffering to PM Olmert during their visit to Israel the
following day. The three Congressmen then addressed the
local and Arab press in Hariri's Qureitem foyer before
leaving.


16. (U) This cable has not been cleared by the CODEL.
FELTMAN