AOUN CONFIRMS BELGIUM TRIP LINKED TO PRISONER

S E C R E T BEIRUT 003010

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2026
TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY IS
SUBJECT: AOUN CONFIRMS BELGIUM TRIP LINKED TO PRISONER
EXCHANGE

REF: BEIRUT 3006

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).



1. (S) At the conclusion of a 9/16 meeting with Michel Aoun and his
advisor/son-in-law Gebran Bassil (septel),the Ambassador asked to see
the General one-on-one to ask about Aoun's mysterious 48-hour trip to
Belgium, concluded the previous day. Aoun confided that, besides
meeting with some Belgium and EU officials (including Javier Solana),h
had hoped to negotiate an exchange of the Israeli soldiers kidnapped by
Hizballah for Samir Kantar and other Lebanese imprisoned in Israel. Th
details of his travel correspond with what we reported in reftel, in
information passed to us by Saad Hariri.


2. (S) Aoun said that, because of the "trust" he enjoys with
Hizballah, many people have approached him for help in releasing the
Israeli captives in return for the Lebanese in Israel. Jesse Jackson
pushed him hard, he said, as did some German MPs in town.
Lebanese-Americans with close ties to Israel have begged him to use his
influence with Hizballah. So when Monsignor Jean Ibrahim Abboud, the
Lebanese origin priest now living in Belgium, told Aoun that the
Belgians, too, wanted Aoun's assistance, Aoun took the matter seriously
when Abboud was able to produce Belgian military transport between
Brussels and Beirut.


3. (S) Aoun said that he quickly discovered in Brussels that Belgium
had no authorization from Israel to discuss any kind of deal. Israel,
Aoun said, is clearly not using Belgium as its channel, despite the
assurances Abboud alleges to have received from Israeli officials. Aou
said that he therefore concentrated on other issues in his Brussels
meetings, since the Belgians had nothing to offer on prisoners. The
Ambassador asked Aoun if had been giving authority by Hizballah to
negotiate on Hizballah's behalf. No, Aoun replied, but he expressed
confidence that had Belgium through Abboud or others been more
forthcoming about Israeli offers, he could have won the release of the
two IDF soldiers. Queried by the Ambassador, Aoun emphasized the
humanitarian (vice political) nature of his hoped-for mediation. He
added that, with the Belgium trip behind him, he is not part of any
current channel on prisoner exchanges.


4. (C) Soon after the conclusion of the Ambassador's meeting with
Aoun, Hariri-owned Future TV, in a breaking news story, spilled some of
the details of Aoun's trip. Gebral Bassil, noting he had been briefed
by Aoun on the one-on-one meeting described above, called the Ambassado
to complain. In Bassil's analysis, the news story is clear evidence of
collusion between the instruments of the state and Hariri's political
interests. Future TV must have had information on the Belgian military
flights, the passenger manifest, and Abboud's Lebanon visits through
the Ministry of Interior, headed by Hariri loyalist Ahmad Fatfat. The
Ambassador noted that the plane manifests available to the Ministry of
Interior would not have led one necessarily to conclude that the
General was on a prisoner exchange mission.


5. (S) Comment: One has to give Aoun and Hizballah credit for
diabolically brilliant political strategies that could badly hurt the
March 14 alliance. For example, signing a MOU on February 6, the day
after Sunnis rioted in Beirut's leading Christian neighborhood, was a
stroke of political genius: Sunnis trashing Christian-owned property
contrasted with Shia (as represented by Hizballah) signing an agreement
with a Christian leader. Had this prisoner exchange idea worked, Aoun
would have been a hero and PM Siniora's power greatly diminished. Now
that the story of this failed prisoner deal is out in public, we will
use it to press Siniora to exercise more leadership on trying to get
information about, and the release of, the two soldiers. We also will
talk with UN envoy Geir Pedersen about having the UN state clearly that
the mediation must go through official government channels. There may
be an opportunity in the near-miss of Aoun's prisoner exchange deal --
which surely has shaken all March 14 politicians -- to get some movemen
from the GOL on this issue. End comment.
FELTMAN