LEBANON: NASRALLAH'S THREATENING WORDS ELICIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 003003 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2016 TAGS: IS LE MOPS PGOV PREL PTER SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: NASRALLAH'S THREATENING WORDS ELICIT STRONG RESPONSE Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Section 1.4 (b). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C/NF) An extended two-part Hassan Nasrallah interview on Al-Jazeera television on 12-13 September has provoked a sharp response across the political spectrum in Lebanon. Pro-reform forces were both outraged and felt threatened by the harsh rhetoric that Nasrallah employed. His accusations that "certain elements" in the March 14 movement "stabbed him in the back" during the war and were essentially working as U.S. agents deeply unsettled the political community. While some politicians feared Nasrallah's words would have a chilling effect on a still anxious nation, other observers believe Nasrallah himself is increasingly nervous because of gradually emerging criticism concerning Hizballah's arrogant and costly behavior on July 12 and throughout the war. More than one politician sees the excessive language used by Nasrallah as a strong indication that he is desperately trying to keep the previously monolithic Shia community in line through intimidation. End summary. NASRALLAH RHETORICALLY BLASTS SINIORA -------------- ¶2. (U) Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah continued his harsh attacks on Lebanon's pro-reform forces with a September 12-13 televised interview on Al-Jazeera. Nasrallah issued a thinly veiled political threat against Prime Minister Siniora by stating that Hizballah might reconsider its participation in his Government. He also accused Siniora of "a lack of ethics and sensitivity" when he invited British PM Tony Blair to visit Beirut earlier this week. But perhaps Nasrallah's most threatening message was his insistence that Siniora's Government did not have the support of the "street" and should give way to a national unity government -- that would include Hizballah ally Michel Aoun. SOME REFORMISTS ARE INTIMIDATED -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) Former MP (and political ally of Saad Hariri) Ghattas Khoury told the Embassy that he found Nasrallah's statements "terrifying," because he believed they conveyed "implicit death threats" against the leaders of the March 14 pro-reform movement. Khoury believes Nasrallah has embarked upon a determined campaign of political intimidation that will not cease until the Siniora Government falls. ¶4. (U) In a press interview on September 14, Acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat, allied with the Future Movement, strongly attacked Nasrallah's statements that implied any criticism of the "resistance" was tantamount to treason. Minister Fatfat stated that such reckless language amounted to "an invitation to murder." In a similar vein, Minister of Social Affairs Nayla Mouawad told the press she deeply resented Nasrallah's call for a new government, because such a move would leave the formation of the government in the hands of President Emile Lahoud -- and his Syrian masters. ...WHILE OTHERS SEE NASRALLAH'S ANXIETY -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) MP Wael Abu Faour, an outspoken member of Walid Jumblatt's bloc, told us that Jumblatt has decided not to respond to Nasrallah's accusations at this time, because he feared it would play directly into Nasrallah's hands by inflaming the situation and jeopardizing the impending formation of the international tribunal. Abu Faour, however, was less worried than Khoury and Fatfat, and said that Nasrallah's recent speeches demonstrate his growing anxiety over possible loss of control over the Shia community, in the sense that he will brand any deviation from Hizballah orthodoxy as "traitorous." ¶6. (C/NF) Political analyst and former Ambassador Simon Karam viewed the latest Nasrallah gambit in a vein similar to Abu Faour. Karam believes that Hizballah's leader is playing on Lebanon's ever-present fear of Shia-Sunni tensions in an effort to short-circuit growing questions about the actual cost of Hizballah's "resistance" in the just-completed BEIRUT 00003003 002 OF 002 conflict. Karam said he hopes the UN Security Council would continue to apply strong pressure on Hizballah to disarm its still-powerful militia. ¶7. (C/NF) Lebanese Forces MP George Adwan expressed to us his concern that Nasrallah's uncompromising stance is raising sectarian tensions to "dangerous" levels. But he also said he is torn about whether pro-reform forces should forcefully answer Nasrallah's charges -- if they stand back, it could help lower tensions, but at the same time Nasrallah and Aoun (and the Syrians) may sense weakness and become even more reckless in their accusations and actions. ¶8. (C/NF) Future Movement MP Ghouna Jalloul told POLOFF on September 14 that she and many of her colleagues now believe a fracture is developing in the Shia community as a result of the considerable cost in human life of Hizballah's latest actions. Jalloul, who claimed to have discussed the topic with numerous moderate Shia, stated that many in that community are eager for an alternative to Hizballah. She insisted that Nasrallah's "hysterical charges" will backfire badly because it reveals his continuing interest in pursuing an aggressive policy toward the Israeli state. Jalloul declared, "Everyone in Lebanon, including the Shia, are sick of war and are tired of listening to Nasrallah's repeated threats." FELTMAN