LEBANON: HARIRI AND HAMADEH GIVE POST-BLOCKADE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 002922

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2026
TAGS: PREL PTER CVIS LE SY IR
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HARIRI AND HAMADEH GIVE POST-BLOCKADE
THOUGHTS

REF: BEIRUT 2867

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Ambassador and poloff met separately on 9/9 with
parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri and Minister of
Information Marwan Hamadeh -- both March 14 members -- to
review the situation and next steps in Lebanon now that the
air and sea blockades have been lifted. Both meetings
touched on a range of topics, including March 14 activities,
the Brammertz Commission and the special tribunal,
reconstruction, the Sheba'a Farms, and the prospect of
Aounist-provoked social unrest, among other issues. Both
Hariri and Hamadeh appeared confident and in high spirits.
END SUMMARY.

BUILDING MARCH 14 APPEAL
--------------


2. (C/NF) Hariri and the Walid Jumblatt-allied Hamadeh
remarked that the March 14 group -- following the September 7
Bristol Hotel meeting -- will now engage in outreach
activities to try and bring other groups under the March 14
umbrella. Hariri noted that he would meet discreetly with a
group of Shi'a clerics and intellectuals disgruntled with
Hizballah in order to cultivate these contacts. He added
that he will try and get other Arab nations -- he mentioned
Egypt and Saudi Arabia -- to meet with and "nurture" Shi'a
opposed to continued Hizballah militancy. Hariri said he
speaks with Nabih Berri at least once a day, but added that,
in the context of his Shi'a dialogue, he would be "opening
up" again to Hizballah. "Though not to Nasrallah," he
hastened to add.


3. (C/NF) Hamadeh also mentioned that the vocally pro-GOL
senior Lebanese Shi'i cleric Ali al-Amin was recently given
air time with a prominent Sunni interviewer on al-Arabiyya
(implying that Saad had something to do with this). He said
that the plan is to "let the Shi'a community simmer for
awhile" in the hopes that the Shi'a will develop an internal
opposition to Hizballah "sui generis." According to Hamadeh,
Saudi Arabia has begun "putting money into Lebanon against
Iran" -- separate from the $500 million Riyadh has already
pledged for reconstruction -- primarily to Sunni, Christian,
and Druze charitable institutions. Hamadeh praised Saad for
encouraging Saudi support, but warned of a danger of Saad
losing Sunni constituents in northern Lebanon to
al-Qaeda-style extremism or to Syria, or both.


4. (C/NF) Hamadeh noted that Jumblatt had wanted to invite
the Lebanese Sunni Jima'a Islamiyya (Islamic Group) to the
March 14 meeting, but that Hariri had not wanted to upset
Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Hamadeh added that a public embrace
of the Jima'a would frighten the Christians -- already faced
with the specter of Shi'a radicalism -- even more than they
already are and would provide Michel Aoun with extra
ammunition to decry a Sunni plot to take over Lebanon.
Instead, Hamadeh said that he will consult with the Jima'a in
parallel to March 14 activities. (Note. In an aside, Hamadeh
noted that Ali Bayanuni had been reelected as head of the
Syrian Muslim Brotherhood by an overwhelming majority.
Hamadeh found this particularly interesting because it had
been done against the will of the Egyptian Brotherhood. End
Note.) Saad also remarked that a "follow-up committee" to
the March 14 meeting would visit the Jima'a, as well as
Patriach Sfeir, Nabih Berri, and foreign embassies.

FAST TRACK THE TRIBUNAL
--------------


5. (C/NF) Raising the matter of the special tribunal to try
suspects in the murder of his father, Saad asked that the
draft statute be fast-tracked at the UN so that it can be
returned to the Lebanese Cabinet, which Saad is confident
will promptly give its approval. He mentioned that President
Chirac called UNSYG Annan on 9/8 to press for this. "We need

BEIRUT 00002922 002 OF 003


the U.S. to push it too," Saad added, "The sooner the
better." Hamadeh also pressed for rapid UN action and does
not have any doubts of GOL approval of the statute. He said
there is nothing to be concerned about Berri's apparent
unwillingness to meet with UN Legal Adviser Nicholas Michel
during his 9/7 visit to Beirut -- "Berri assured us he is
still with the tribunal."


6. (C/NF) Hamadeh said he met with a team of investigators
from UNIIIC for over five hours on 9/8. Commissioner Serge
Brammertz claims to have received all the personnel he needs
to follow-up on various leads, according to Hamadeh, who
remarked that he was interviewed by a Tunisian investigator
and that "all the questions were about Syria." Hamadeh said
he had been greatly surprised by this Syria focus, noting
that there was "not a question that didn't focus on Rustom
(Ghazaleh),Bashar's meeting (in late August 2004, when he
reportedly threatened Rafik Hariri),and Ghazi Kanaan."
Several of the questions were focused on the week leading up
to Hariri's death, Hamadeh said, when Hariri had met with
Rustom Ghazaleh and outright refused to agree to Ghazaleh's
preferences for electoral lists for the upcoming
parliamentary elections. (Note. Interestingly, Saad said he
has not once been met with UNIIIC investigators since
Brammertz took over from Detlev Mehlis. End Note.)

PANIC IN THE STREETS?
--------------


7. (C/NF) Regarding the rumor that Michel Aoun intends to
launch a civil disobedience campaign after Ramadan, both
Hariri and Hamadeh seemed confident that the GOL can face
down this threat. Hariri thinks that the Aounists will not
be able to launch the protests, while Hamadeh noted that they
will not have the "popular stamina" to sustain a campaign
long enough to cause the GOL to topple, and that the March 14
movement could rally support. "We will walk on Ba'abda
(Presidential palace) if anyone makes a demonstration,"
warned Hamadeh, "We will make a counter-demonstration." The
Ambassador suggested to both that, as a precautionary
measure, the Internal Security Forces (ISF) stationed in
downtown Beirut should be replaced by the Lebanese Armed
Forces (LAF),since it is also rumored that the Aounists
intend to provoke the Hariri-allied ISF into firing on
protestors, sparking a violent chain reaction with the
ultimate aim of forcing Siniora's resignation. By contrast,
the Aounists have respect for the LAF. Hariri also took the
opportunity to ask the Ambassador again for USG assistance in
procuring needed equipment for both the LAF and ISF.


8. (C/NF) Both Hariri and Hamadeh seem pleased with LAF
commander Michel Sleiman, who Hamadeh said had played a more
positive role in the recent Cabinet meeting deciding maritime
assistance than had Defense Minister Elias Murr (contrary to
Murr's assertions to us (reftel)). Hamadeh said that he
interprets the Cabinet decision as allowing international
ships to patrol freely in the 6 to 12 mile zone of Lebanese
waters, but that the LAF alone has the right to stop,
inspect, and seize ships. Hamadeh warned of a potential
backdoor; since international patrols will not be permitted
inside a zone stretching six miles from Lebanon's coastline,
ships coming south from Syria's Mediterranean ports could
easily avoid UNIFIL-patrolled waters. He noted that the
Germans, too, are concerned about this, which Hamadeh hopes
will lead to a solution.

SHEBA'A INITIATIVE NEEDS UN COVER
--------------


9. (C/NF) The Ambassador asked both Hamadeh and Hariri what
they thought of Israeli PM Olmert's 9/8 suggestion of a
potential deal on Sheba'a if Hizballah were disarmed and
Syria were to send a formal letter to the UN saying that the
territory is Lebanese. Hamadeh suggested that this issue can
be developed, but not immediately following Olmert's
statement. Sensitive to Lebanese internal consumption,
Hamadeh said that a Sheba'a farms deal "should not look like
an Israeli initiative," suggesting that something might be
done after Kofi Annan's upcoming UNSCR 1701 report. Hariri

BEIRUT 00002922 003 OF 003


also said this should appear to be a UN-generated initiative,
but added that "if Olmert is serious, and the U.S. can give
some kind of guarantee," then he is prepared to consult with
Nabih Berri on opening a debate in Lebanon to corner
Hizballah into disarming. Hariri tipped his cap to his
southern neighbor - "It is very smart of Olmert to say this."


10. (C/NF) The Ambassador suggested that it would build a
measure of trust with Israel were some kind of progress to be
made regarding the captive IDF soldiers, such as -- at the
very least -- a videotape showing they are still alive or an
ICRC visit. Hariri half-heartedly agreed to talk to Berri
about this issue as well, but remarked that "Nabih doesn't
want to get involved with the prisoners," adding that
"Nabih's so upset with Hizballah and the statements they've
made."

PROBLEMS WITH RECONSTRUCTION
--------------


11. (C/NF) On the topic of reconstruction, Hamadeh noted
that the "centralization spirit" of PM Siniora has hampered
the effort, and that Siniora is having problems now with some
of his ministers -- Hamadeh mentioned specifically
Transportation Minister Mohammad Safadi, Minister for
Displaced Naame Tohmeh, and Minister for Social Affairs Nayla
Mouawad. Hamadeh said that many destroyed buildings in the
southern suburbs had been built illegally on private land,
which complicates the rebuilding effort. For instance,
Hizballah headquarters -- the now destroyed "murabba' amni"
(security sqaure) -- had ironically been built,
squatter-style, on Christian-owned land. According to
Hamadeh, Nabih Berri is playing an active role in civic
redesign of the southern suburbs, preferring to put in more
open spaces such as gardens and squares, thereby decreasing
overcrowding.

GHAZI ARIDI: SIGNALLING A JUMBLATT SHIFT?
--------------


12. (C/NF) The Ambassador asked about the recent,
Hizballah-like anti-American comments of Information Minister
Ghazi Aridi (a supposed Jumblatt ally),and whether this
foreshadowed a future and not atypical volte face for
Jumblatt back into a less U.S.-inclined camp. Hamadeh -- the
pro-American Jumblatt ally -- noted that Aridi had not
attended the March 14 gathering and does not reflect
Jumblatt's attitude, but is merely freelancing for attention.
Hariri though suggested that Jumblatt uses Hamadeh and Aridi
to reflect different messages in order to keep a foot in both
camps. Both Hamadeh and Hariri promised to speak with Aridi
and ask him to tone it down. (Note. We plan to visit Aridi
soon to protest his recent change of tone. End Note.)
Hamadeh added that Jumblatt hopes to travel to the U.S. soon,
perhaps following the UN General Assembly (Note. Hariri asked
if there is a "problem with Jumblatt's visa," indicating that
Jumblatt has mentioned potential travel to him as well. End
Note.)
FELTMAN