LEBANON: SIMON KARAM SAYS RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002881

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SIMON KARAM SAYS RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS A
SHI'I FACE


Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) During an August 31 lunch with the Ambassador,
poloff, and pol FSN at the Ambassador's residence, former
Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Simon Karam suggested there
is a prevailing sense of catastrophe among the Shi'a
community. Karam believes Hizballah may be somewhat
susceptible to other Shi's forces, but that the GOL needs to
encourage the development of independent Shi'a while
continuing to court Nabih Berri. As for Michel Aoun, Karam
suspects he has lost a great deal of support within the
Christian community, but that these former Aounists are now
adrift with no clear alternative leader. Karam suggests it
is essential that the Christian community accept the
deconfessionalization of Lebanese politics -- something
which would dilute the political power of Lebanon's Christian
community. END SUMMARY.

HIZBALLAH DOWN, BUT NOT OUT
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2. (C) Karam, a Maronite from southern Lebanon who was
Ambassador to the U.S. in the early 1990s, said that
Hizballah's "triumph discourse" has not been well received,
especially when juxtaposed with the scenes of utter
destruction in the South and the southern suburbs. However,
independent Shi'a opposition to Hizballah is still just
nascent, whereas the Hizballah propaganda and financial
machine is still very powerful. Karam assesses that, despite
the discontent, more likely than not Hizballah will manage to
remain the primary Shi'i political force in Lebanon.

BUILDING SHI'I ALTERNATIVES
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3. (C) Karam suggests the GOL needs to think creatively
about cultivating Shi'a forces opposed to Hizballah, and
should follow two tracks: while building a relationship with
Nabih Berri they should also find a young, independent Shi'a
figure to lead the reconstruction effort. Karam believes
Berri is trying to distance himself from Hizballah by
supporting the Siniora government and refusing to negotiate
on Hizballah's behalf on a prisoner exchange with Israel
(Note. More recently, Berri has broken ranks with Hizballah
over international maritime assistance. End Note). Berri
can be enticed further into the GOL fold through making sure
some of the reconstruction money goes to Berri-allied
contractors, though Karam advised against simply giving funds
directly to Berri's porous Council for the South since this
would allow Hizballah to trumpet the probity of its own
construction organization, Jihad al-Bina.


4. (C) Furthermore, the reconstruction effort needs to have
a Shi'i face, argued Karam, as this would help build
confidence in the GOL amongst the Shi'a. Karam suggested
placing a young, entrepreneurial Shi'i to coordinate the
reconstruction effort, with the parallel task of rallying
Shi'a support for the GOL. When the Ambassador noted that PM
Siniora has already appointed Ghassan Taher, a Shi'i, as his
reconstruction advisor, Karam suggested that Taher needs to
have a more prominent role. He said that Nabih Berri would
not feel threatened by this, as long as Berri-allied
contractors get their share of the reconstruction funds.

CHRISTIAN DRIFT
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5. (C) Discussing Christian politics, Karam believes that
Michel Aoun continues to lose favor amongst the Christians
due his pro-Hizballah stance. However, rather than switching
allegiances to another Maronite leader, ex-Aounists are
simply "lost to politics" since there is no clear alternative
to Aoun right now (other than Samir Geagea, who has his own
peculiar niche). Karam (known to have presidential ambitions
of his own) believes that the Maronites -- and Christians
more generally -- might rally around a new President if he or
she were seen to truly represent Christian Lebanon (rather
than the current President Lahoud, who represents Damascus).


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6. (C) Karam said that the current Christian "sense of
loss" could be exploited to bring about needed systemic
changes in Lebanon. Christians have traditionally resisted
deconfessionalizing politics in Lebanon because
confessionalism is the only guarantee, given their obvious
demographic deficiency, for them to retain their
constitutional powers - the Presidency and half the seats in
the Cabinet and Chamber of Deputies. Karam suggests rotating
the top three posts of President, Prime Minister, and
Parliamentary Speaker among the three major confessions. He
also proposes creating a Senate with a 50/50 Muslim-Christian
split while completely deconfessionalizing the Chamber of
Deputies. (Comment. It is difficult to imagine Karam's
ideas gaining much traction amongst Christians. End Comment)
FELTMAN