LEBANON: SIMON KARAM SAYS RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002881 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2016 TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: SIMON KARAM SAYS RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS A SHI'I FACE Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During an August 31 lunch with the Ambassador, poloff, and pol FSN at the Ambassador's residence, former Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Simon Karam suggested there is a prevailing sense of catastrophe among the Shi'a community. Karam believes Hizballah may be somewhat susceptible to other Shi's forces, but that the GOL needs to encourage the development of independent Shi'a while continuing to court Nabih Berri. As for Michel Aoun, Karam suspects he has lost a great deal of support within the Christian community, but that these former Aounists are now adrift with no clear alternative leader. Karam suggests it is essential that the Christian community accept the deconfessionalization of Lebanese politics -- something which would dilute the political power of Lebanon's Christian community. END SUMMARY. HIZBALLAH DOWN, BUT NOT OUT -------------- ¶2. (C) Karam, a Maronite from southern Lebanon who was Ambassador to the U.S. in the early 1990s, said that Hizballah's "triumph discourse" has not been well received, especially when juxtaposed with the scenes of utter destruction in the South and the southern suburbs. However, independent Shi'a opposition to Hizballah is still just nascent, whereas the Hizballah propaganda and financial machine is still very powerful. Karam assesses that, despite the discontent, more likely than not Hizballah will manage to remain the primary Shi'i political force in Lebanon. BUILDING SHI'I ALTERNATIVES -------------- ¶3. (C) Karam suggests the GOL needs to think creatively about cultivating Shi'a forces opposed to Hizballah, and should follow two tracks: while building a relationship with Nabih Berri they should also find a young, independent Shi'a figure to lead the reconstruction effort. Karam believes Berri is trying to distance himself from Hizballah by supporting the Siniora government and refusing to negotiate on Hizballah's behalf on a prisoner exchange with Israel (Note. More recently, Berri has broken ranks with Hizballah over international maritime assistance. End Note). Berri can be enticed further into the GOL fold through making sure some of the reconstruction money goes to Berri-allied contractors, though Karam advised against simply giving funds directly to Berri's porous Council for the South since this would allow Hizballah to trumpet the probity of its own construction organization, Jihad al-Bina. ¶4. (C) Furthermore, the reconstruction effort needs to have a Shi'i face, argued Karam, as this would help build confidence in the GOL amongst the Shi'a. Karam suggested placing a young, entrepreneurial Shi'i to coordinate the reconstruction effort, with the parallel task of rallying Shi'a support for the GOL. When the Ambassador noted that PM Siniora has already appointed Ghassan Taher, a Shi'i, as his reconstruction advisor, Karam suggested that Taher needs to have a more prominent role. He said that Nabih Berri would not feel threatened by this, as long as Berri-allied contractors get their share of the reconstruction funds. CHRISTIAN DRIFT -------------- ¶5. (C) Discussing Christian politics, Karam believes that Michel Aoun continues to lose favor amongst the Christians due his pro-Hizballah stance. However, rather than switching allegiances to another Maronite leader, ex-Aounists are simply "lost to politics" since there is no clear alternative to Aoun right now (other than Samir Geagea, who has his own peculiar niche). Karam (known to have presidential ambitions of his own) believes that the Maronites -- and Christians more generally -- might rally around a new President if he or she were seen to truly represent Christian Lebanon (rather than the current President Lahoud, who represents Damascus). BEIRUT 00002881 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Karam said that the current Christian "sense of loss" could be exploited to bring about needed systemic changes in Lebanon. Christians have traditionally resisted deconfessionalizing politics in Lebanon because confessionalism is the only guarantee, given their obvious demographic deficiency, for them to retain their constitutional powers - the Presidency and half the seats in the Cabinet and Chamber of Deputies. Karam suggests rotating the top three posts of President, Prime Minister, and Parliamentary Speaker among the three major confessions. He also proposes creating a Senate with a 50/50 Muslim-Christian split while completely deconfessionalizing the Chamber of Deputies. (Comment. It is difficult to imagine Karam's ideas gaining much traction amongst Christians. End Comment) FELTMAN