LEBANON: GREEK ORTHODOX CLERIC SLAMS MICHEL AOUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002869

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: GREEK ORTHODOX CLERIC SLAMS MICHEL AOUN


Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) During an August 31 meeting with Ambassador Feltman
and poloff, Greek Orthodox Archbishop Ilias Audi discussed
the atmosphere of the August 2 meeting of Lebanese clerics.
He also gave his impressions of PM Siniora and the three
Greek Orthodox Cabinet ministers: Elias Murr, Tariq Mitri,
and Yaacoub Sarraf. Speaking on the post-conflict period,
Audi said he fears the shrinking, fractious Christian
community in Lebanon will be torn between the larger Shi'a
and Sunna blocs. Audi lamented the lack of a clear, unifying
Christian political leader. Audi's voice took on a sharp
edge when he spoke of Michel Aoun, whom he described as "a
puppet". He added that the Siniora government is under
pressure from Aoun and Hizballah to resign precisely because
they are threatened by Siniora's effectiveness and his close
relationship with Speaker Nabih Berri. END SUMMARY.

CLERICS' MEETING
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2. (C) Audi described the atmosphere at the August 2
Christian-Muslim clerics' meeting at the Maronite Patriarch's
seat in Bkirki as peaceful, and said that the Vice President
of the Higher Shi'ite Council Sheikh Abdel-Amir Qabalan
(allied with Berri) came across as very pro-government and
supportive of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Audi said
this position was much closer to Speaker Nabih Berri than to
Hizballah, adding that it wouldn't surprise him if Berri were
to come out explicitly against Hizballah. Deep down, not all
the Shi'a truly want to follow the Iranian template
represented by Hizballah, and Audi suspects Berri may be fed
up with Hizballah. Still, Berri knows that for now his
political survival still depends on Hizballah, and he has no
other guaranteed option to sustain his position in the top
tier of Lebanese politics.

VIEWS ON POLITICAL LEADERS
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3. (C) Speaking of the three Greek Orthodox Cabinet
ministers -- Tarek Mitri (Culture),Elias Murr (Defense),and
Yaacoub Sarraf (Environment) - Audi reserved his highest
praise for Mitri, whom he described as decent and
non-confrontational, a trusted aide to Siniora. He
equivocated a little regarding Murr, whom he indicated has
improved considerably since the attempt on his life and is a
"courageous person." He described Sarraf (the sole member of
the cabinet that remains loyal to President Emile Lahoud) as
a "good and decent administrator," which came across as
entirely disparaging.


4. (C) Otherwise maintaining a calm and pacific demeanor
throughout the meeting, Audi could barely contain his anger
when discussing Michel Aoun, saying of him, "I hope this man
never comes to any important position. I don't think he
respects anybody." Audi said Aoun's sole aim in life is to
become President, and that he told Maronite Patriarch Sfeir
that he is willing to do anything to reside in Baabda Palace.
Believing that Hizballah is using its alliance with Aoun
just to gain Maronite cover for its continued existence as a
militia, Audi said that he thinks Nasrallah is secretly
"laughing inside" at Aoun. Audi clearly summed up his
feelings: "I hope, I pray, that Aoun never gets to the
Presidency. He will be a puppet in anybody's hand."


5. (C) Audi believes Fuad Siniora has done a "fantastic"
job as Prime Minister throughout the recent crisis. "We have
discovered this man," said Audi, "We are proud of him as a
leader." He hopes that the Siniora government is not forced
to resign. The main aim of the current government's
opponents is to create stalemate and deadlock, according to
Audi, since they are concerned by Siniora's effectiveness and
alliance-building with Berri -- "You won't strike except at a
fruitful tree." If Siniora's opponents -- loosely termed the
"March 8" movement -- were to come to power, said Audi, "then
I feel it is the end." Audi added that President Lahoud has
by now completely overdone his support for "the resistance"
by portraying the army as a meek institution incapable of
defending the South. "Lahoud described the army like a baby

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that will cry if you touch it."

CHRISTIAN DISUNITY: A CROSS TO BEAR
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6. (C) Audi decried the generally parlous state of
Christian politics, noting that while Aoun's followers are
deserting him over his pro-Hizballah stance, they have no
clear Christian leader to whom they can turn. Describing the
Christian mood as "perplexed", Audi worries that as the
Christian population decreases in Lebanon, the community will
split between the larger confessions, with some latching on
to the Sunna and others to the Shi'a. The Christians, unused
to the concept of a single unifying confessional "za'eem"
(traditional community leader) such as the Druze have in
Walid Joumblatt, are more susceptible to breaking ranks,
thereby dispersing their still considerable power.

CRITICAL OF HIZBALLAH
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7. (C) Audi said that most of the Greek Orthodox community
in Lebanon is deeply unhappy that Hizballah unilaterally
provoked a conflict with Israel -- "You cannot have one group
taking a decision like that." At the end of the day, Audi
asks, was the conflict truly worth the suffering and loss of
life? Speaking of Hassan Nasrallah, Audi remarked, "I didn't
elect him. He doesn't represent me." Audi claims his
sermons have of late taken on a much more political tone --
which he normally reserves only for Christmas and Easter
sermons -- calling for a public dialogue on the future of
Hizballah's role in Lebanon.
FELTMAN