LEBANON: GREEK ORTHODOX CLERIC SLAMS MICHEL AOUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002869 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2016 TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: GREEK ORTHODOX CLERIC SLAMS MICHEL AOUN Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During an August 31 meeting with Ambassador Feltman and poloff, Greek Orthodox Archbishop Ilias Audi discussed the atmosphere of the August 2 meeting of Lebanese clerics. He also gave his impressions of PM Siniora and the three Greek Orthodox Cabinet ministers: Elias Murr, Tariq Mitri, and Yaacoub Sarraf. Speaking on the post-conflict period, Audi said he fears the shrinking, fractious Christian community in Lebanon will be torn between the larger Shi'a and Sunna blocs. Audi lamented the lack of a clear, unifying Christian political leader. Audi's voice took on a sharp edge when he spoke of Michel Aoun, whom he described as "a puppet". He added that the Siniora government is under pressure from Aoun and Hizballah to resign precisely because they are threatened by Siniora's effectiveness and his close relationship with Speaker Nabih Berri. END SUMMARY. CLERICS' MEETING -------------- ¶2. (C) Audi described the atmosphere at the August 2 Christian-Muslim clerics' meeting at the Maronite Patriarch's seat in Bkirki as peaceful, and said that the Vice President of the Higher Shi'ite Council Sheikh Abdel-Amir Qabalan (allied with Berri) came across as very pro-government and supportive of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Audi said this position was much closer to Speaker Nabih Berri than to Hizballah, adding that it wouldn't surprise him if Berri were to come out explicitly against Hizballah. Deep down, not all the Shi'a truly want to follow the Iranian template represented by Hizballah, and Audi suspects Berri may be fed up with Hizballah. Still, Berri knows that for now his political survival still depends on Hizballah, and he has no other guaranteed option to sustain his position in the top tier of Lebanese politics. VIEWS ON POLITICAL LEADERS -------------- ¶3. (C) Speaking of the three Greek Orthodox Cabinet ministers -- Tarek Mitri (Culture),Elias Murr (Defense),and Yaacoub Sarraf (Environment) - Audi reserved his highest praise for Mitri, whom he described as decent and non-confrontational, a trusted aide to Siniora. He equivocated a little regarding Murr, whom he indicated has improved considerably since the attempt on his life and is a "courageous person." He described Sarraf (the sole member of the cabinet that remains loyal to President Emile Lahoud) as a "good and decent administrator," which came across as entirely disparaging. ¶4. (C) Otherwise maintaining a calm and pacific demeanor throughout the meeting, Audi could barely contain his anger when discussing Michel Aoun, saying of him, "I hope this man never comes to any important position. I don't think he respects anybody." Audi said Aoun's sole aim in life is to become President, and that he told Maronite Patriarch Sfeir that he is willing to do anything to reside in Baabda Palace. Believing that Hizballah is using its alliance with Aoun just to gain Maronite cover for its continued existence as a militia, Audi said that he thinks Nasrallah is secretly "laughing inside" at Aoun. Audi clearly summed up his feelings: "I hope, I pray, that Aoun never gets to the Presidency. He will be a puppet in anybody's hand." ¶5. (C) Audi believes Fuad Siniora has done a "fantastic" job as Prime Minister throughout the recent crisis. "We have discovered this man," said Audi, "We are proud of him as a leader." He hopes that the Siniora government is not forced to resign. The main aim of the current government's opponents is to create stalemate and deadlock, according to Audi, since they are concerned by Siniora's effectiveness and alliance-building with Berri -- "You won't strike except at a fruitful tree." If Siniora's opponents -- loosely termed the "March 8" movement -- were to come to power, said Audi, "then I feel it is the end." Audi added that President Lahoud has by now completely overdone his support for "the resistance" by portraying the army as a meek institution incapable of defending the South. "Lahoud described the army like a baby BEIRUT 00002869 002 OF 002 that will cry if you touch it." CHRISTIAN DISUNITY: A CROSS TO BEAR -------------- ¶6. (C) Audi decried the generally parlous state of Christian politics, noting that while Aoun's followers are deserting him over his pro-Hizballah stance, they have no clear Christian leader to whom they can turn. Describing the Christian mood as "perplexed", Audi worries that as the Christian population decreases in Lebanon, the community will split between the larger confessions, with some latching on to the Sunna and others to the Shi'a. The Christians, unused to the concept of a single unifying confessional "za'eem" (traditional community leader) such as the Druze have in Walid Joumblatt, are more susceptible to breaking ranks, thereby dispersing their still considerable power. CRITICAL OF HIZBALLAH -------------- ¶7. (C) Audi said that most of the Greek Orthodox community in Lebanon is deeply unhappy that Hizballah unilaterally provoked a conflict with Israel -- "You cannot have one group taking a decision like that." At the end of the day, Audi asks, was the conflict truly worth the suffering and loss of life? Speaking of Hassan Nasrallah, Audi remarked, "I didn't elect him. He doesn't represent me." Audi claims his sermons have of late taken on a much more political tone -- which he normally reserves only for Christmas and Easter sermons -- calling for a public dialogue on the future of Hizballah's role in Lebanon. FELTMAN