LEBANON: SINIORA AND HAMADEH EXPECT CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002851 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2026 TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY IS SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA AND HAMADEH EXPECT CABINET APPROVAL FOR LETTER Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Ambassador and poloff met separately with Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora and Information Minister Marwan Hamadeh on the afternoon of September 4. Siniora, joined by advisors Mohammad Chatta and Roula Noureddine, appeared very upbeat and is optimistic that this evening the Cabinet will approve sending a letter to Germany requesting maritime assistance. Concerned that the Germans have said they will need 17 days to approve and despatch the naval force, Siniora says he has a commitment from the Italians, and possibly the French and Greeks, to patrol the coast in the interim. Siniora reacted positively to the Ambassador's suggestion that UNIFIL, at its request, be permitted to establish liaison offices at the airport and seaports as logistical support for the expanded deployment and, as a quiet sideline, to monitor any suspicious activity. Siniora noted that Nabih Berri, initially vocally opposed to sending a letter to Germany, now supports taking this step, and added that the widescale public discussion concerning the letter had actually helped make the measure politically more feasible. Siniora cautioned though that if the issue of the blockade is not resolved in the near future, the GOL will lose momentum and support. ¶2. (C) Hamadeh was similarly positive about Cabinet approval of the letter, and also remarked that Speaker Berri has moderated his stance. He agreed fully with the idea of establishing UNIFIL liaison offices at the airport and seaport. Hamadeh added that UN Legal Advisor Nicholas Michel will arrive in Beirut on Thursday to finalize the agreement to establish a special tribunal for the Hariri assassination. END SUMMARY. SINIORA FEELING BUOYANT -------------- ¶3. (C) During the meeting at the Grand Serail, Siniora came across as relaxed and confident, a far cry from his distraught, fatigued demeanor of recent days. Siniora said that he had gone out to lunch with his wife for the first time in two months and had received a standing ovation from the other restaurant patrons, which seems to have buoyed him somewhat. He anticipates the Cabinet this evening will approve his sending a letter to German Chancellor Merkel stating Lebanon's intent to formally request maritime assistance (Note. At this stage, Siniora is proposing sending two separate letters, the initial letter of intent and a formal request about a week later. End Note). Siniora hopes this letter of intent will be enough to allow the German government to start turning the wheels to approve despatching the force. ¶4. (C) Siniora said that Speaker Berri has overcome his previous opposition and is prepared now to accept the letter proposal. According to Siniora, Berri reacted so publicly and negatively to the letter idea because it was a way for him to seize the spotlight, while he also remains suspicious -- as does Siniora -- that following the letter and deployment of maritime assets the Israelis will place even more conditions on Lebanon in order to get the blockade lifted. Siniora indicated that Berri's exposure on this issue is useful in that, if it bears fruit, it will bring him more into the GOL fold and further distance him from Hizballah. ¶5. (C) Surprisingly, Siniora noted that all the public furor surrounding the letter has made it easier for him to arrange things politically: while opposed to the letter because of the perception that it invites infringement of Lebanon's sovereignty, people are by now taking it for granted that a letter must be drafted in order to get the blockade lifted. However, cautioned Siniora, if the letter is drafted and the blockade is not lifted soon thereafter, the GOL will be put to task by its opponents in the Aounist and Hizballah camps while public confidence in the government will be deflated. BEIRUT 00002851 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) The window of opportunity for the government to make this work is very small indeed, which is why Siniora is concerned about the 17-day wait for the German arrival. In the interim, Siniora suggests lifting the air and sea blockades in phases, beginning with the airport. Before our meeting, he met with Italian officials who said they are capable and willing right now to patrol 50 per cent of Lebanon's coastline until the German arrival, and reportedly do not need a formal letter from the GOL. Siniora will speak with the French and Greeks about patrolling the other half of the coastline for the time being. Regarding having an international presence in the airport and seaport, the Ambassador suggested that UNIFIL could request to establish liaison offices officially tasked with supporting the UNIFIL presence -- troop arrivals, supplies, VIP visits -- while unofficially keeping an eye on Lebanese security and customs. Siniora reacted very positively to this idea, though the Ambassador stressed that he was speaking privately. Such a suggestion may still not be enough to convince the wary Israelis, concerned about Lebanon's ability and willingness to secure its borders. HAMADEH ALSO POSITIVE -------------- ¶7. (C) Minister of Telecommunications Marwan Hamadeh (an ally of Walid Joumblatt) was in a similarly upbeat frame of mind, and said that Nabih Berri has toned down his rhetoric against the letter proposal, perhaps in anticipation of this evening's Cabinet session approving the missive. Hamadeh remarked that Berri's first priority is to have the airport reopened immediately, followed by the port. Noting that Siniora and Berri have been working closely together on this issue, as they did during the UNSCR 1701 negotiations, Hamadeh said that Siniora's goal now is to keep Berri close and supportive of his government. According to Hamadeh, during the ongoing parliamentary sit-in Berri has often cut off Aounist MPs who are trying to use the opportunity to denounce the Siniora government. ¶8. (C) Hamadeh said that UN Legal Advisor Nicholas Michel will arrive in Beirut on Thursday to discuss the draft agreement on the special tribunal and stressed that the Cabinet should move to approve it immediately. According to Hamadeh, President Lahoud is now saying that he wants to get rid of his old friend Justice Minister Charles Rizk, a supposed Lahoud ally in the Cabinet who has played a key role in pushing to finalize the agreement. During the meeting, Hamadeh called to reassure Rizk, telling him that, "We are all in solidarity. You inspire respect amongst all of us." (Comment. Rizk, a Maronite, has designs on succeeding his friend as President, and needs to appear more palatable to the March 14 crowd. End Comment). ¶9. (C) Mentioning some key upcoming events, Hamadeh expects Maronite Patriarch Sfeir to issue a strongly pro-GOL communique following the bishop's meeting on Wednesday 9/6, and that there will be an expanded March 14 meeting on Thursday 9/7 at which the Maronite members will endorse the Patriarch's statement. Hamadeh assesses that Sfeir, fed up with Michel Aoun's anti-GOL invective, is hoping to act as a unifying and responsible Maronite leader. FELTMAN