LEBANON: MARWAN HAMADEH THINKS BERRI CAN BE TURNED

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002815

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2026
TAGS: PREL KCRM PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARWAN HAMADEH THINKS BERRI CAN BE TURNED

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S/NF) During an August 30 meeting with the Ambassador
and poloff, Lebanese Minister of Communications (and Jumblatt
ally) Marwan Hamadeh discussed the draft agreement to
establish a special tribunal to try suspects in Hariri
assassination (and possibly other attacks). Agreeing with
USG concerns about the extent of the tribunal's competency,
Hamadeh also finds fault with the powers given to the
pre-trial judge as well as the selection process for the
tribunal's local judges. Discussing internal politics,
Hamadeh believes that Speaker Berri can be enticed into
supporting President Lahoud's ouster. Hamadeh said there
will be a restricted-size March 14 meeting in a few days,
when he plans to raise the possibility of looking into the
Bank al-Medina scandal. Having just returned from a trip to
Paris, where he met with French officials, Hamadeh also gave
his impressions of current French thinking on the Middle
East. END SUMMARY.

TRIBUNAL FRAMEWORK DOCUMENT
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2. (S/NF) Reviewing the draft UN-GOL "Statute of the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon," Hamadeh agreed with the
Ambassador that the language giving the tribunal jurisdiction
over the Hariri assassination and all other acts of "a
similar nature and gravity" is far too broad. Hamadeh
suggested instead language which allows the tribunal to try
only cases which are "materially linked" to the Hariri
attack. Furthermore, Hamadeh does not believe that the time
period during which related attacks took place should be
restricted from October 1, 2004 to Dec 31, 2005, and would
prefer that the latter date be left open-ended to dissuade
any future would-be attackers. Unprompted, Hamadeh also said
he is against giving the tribunal competency to try suspects
for "crimes against humanity," as he believes this would be
unnecessary and provocative -- "it will open Pandora's box."


3. (S/NF) Hamadeh pointed out an issue with Article 19 of
the statute, which says that a pre-trial judge shall review
any indictment, and can decide to dismiss it. Firstly, this
gives the pre-trial judge too much power over whether or not
a case will be heard by the tribunal. Secondly, the statute
does not specify who will select the pre-trial judge. Would
it be the UN or the GOL? Hamadeh also opposes the method of
selecting tribunal judges whereby the UN appoints the
international judges and the GOL the local judges. This
would mean near certain GOL paralysis every time they need to
appoint a new judge to the tribunal. "We don't want to have
to negotiate with Nabih Berri every time we want to appoint a
local judge." Hamadeh suggests that the GOL agree on and
provide to the UN a list of acceptable local judges, leaving
the final decision on appointments with the UN.


4. (S/NF) Hamadeh hopes that UN Legal Adviser Nicholas
Michel comes as soon as possible to sign the statute for the
tribunal, and suggested that this visit coincide with UNSYG
Annan's trip to Damascus. Hamadeh worries though that Michel
may decide not to come to Lebanon until after the Brammertz
report in mid-September (at Brammertz's suggestion). Noting
that the French -- Chirac in particular -- are pressing hard
for a Michel visit now, Hamadeh asked that the USG continue
to weigh in with UN contacts.

BERRI HAS HIS PRICE
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5. (S/NF) Turning to internal Lebanese politics, Hamadeh
believes that, with the right combination of guaranteed
political security and cash flow, Nabih Berri might agree to
lend his weight to removing Emile Lahoud from the Presidency.
Not mincing words, Hamadeh said that the GOL would need to
guarantee a certain amount of reconstruction funds to Berri's
Council for the South, helping to increase his political
patronage amongst the Shi'a while -- an unfortunate side
effect -- also funding Randa Berri's wardrobe. Acknowledging
that Siniora does not approve of this strategy since it would

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open the GOL up to one of Michel Aoun's anti-corruption
broadsides, Hamadeh suggests that Saudi Arabia -- with a GOL
nudge and wink -- directly deposit a large amount of
reconstruction funds into the Council for the South. Hamadeh
also suggests that March 14 parliamentarians simultaneously
assure Berri that he will be returned as Speaker when he
comes up for a the constitutional mid-term vote of confidence
next summer.


6. (S/NF) Hamadeh said that MPs have signed a petition
demanding an immediate parliamentary session (Note.
Shockingly, Parliament has remained in recess throughout the
recent conflict. End Note),adding that the petitioners are
waiting to see if Speaker Berri will sign or not. If he
doesn't, according to Hamadeh, then March 14 MPs are prepared
to force him and President Lahoud to convene Parliament. The
Ambassador warned that Hizballah MPs might seize the floor
and filibuster about Israeli "war crimes" and other pet
issues. Hamadeh did not seem too bothered, adding that the
mood in the country seems to be shifting away from Hizballah,
even among Shi'a. Hamadeh remarked that "our" (it is unclear
if this includes all of March 14 or just Jumblatt and Hariri)
new strategy is to strip Hizballah of Shi'a support.

BANK AL-MEDINA
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6. (S/NF) The Ambassador asked why no one has looked
further into the Bank al-Medina files, an anomalous instance
of tight-lippedness in a country renowned for exposing dirty
laundry. Hamadeh claims to have asked Prosecutor-General
Said Mirza for the Medina files, but that Mirza said the
files were being "studied by experts". "There has not been a
lot of pressure on Mirza to open the files," Hamadeh
admitted. Hamadeh said that there is to be a "reduced
meeting of the March 14" in two or three days, and that he
will put Bank al-Medina on the agenda. (Comment.
Considering that, by some accounts, the March 14 movement is
now riven by jealousies and cliques, the idea of a "reduced"
meeting is cause for some concern. End Comment).

FRENCH IMPRESSIONS
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7. (C/NF) Having just arrived back from Paris on 8/28,
Hamadeh said he believes France will remain firm on Syria.
The Ambassador asked why the French have not taken any
concrete steps against Syria, such as recalling their
Ambassador for consultations. Hamadeh said the French intend
to send their former UN Deputy Permanent Representative,
apparently "very anti-Syrian", as the new Ambassador to
Damascus. He believes the French might move on sanctioning
Syria, but have to be careful now that they have many more
troops on the ground in southern Lebanon. While in Paris,
Hamadeh met with French presidential hopeful Nicholas Sarkozy
who, while inexperienced as regards the Middle East, seems
even "stiffer" than Chirac on Syria. Hamadeh noted Chirac
spoke with King Abdullah recently and asked the king to
"help" -- financially -- the GOL and "friends of the West" in
Lebanon.
FELTMAN