LEBANON: CODEL SHAYS MEETS WITH PM SINIORA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002804 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: IS LE MOPS PGOV PREL PTER SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: CODEL SHAYS MEETS WITH PM SINIORA SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. Prime Minister Siniora asked CODEL Shays for help in lifting the air and sea blockade of Lebanon by IDF forces. PM Siniora stated that not only was the blockade severely impairing humanitarian and reconstruction efforts, but it made the Lebanese people feel that the current period is simply a hiatus in a continuing conflict. As he has with many recent visitors, PM Siniora also emphasized the importance of dealing with Shebaa Farms. If a just resolution could be found, Siniora argued that Hizballah's militia would lose its legitimacy with the Lebanese people, Iran and Syria would lose influence in Lebanon, and Israel would gain a stable northern border. Although the Prime Minister discussed reconstruction assistance, he stated that the U.S. aid would be even more valuable in helping the LAF develop the necessary capabilities it needed to fulfill its constitutional responsibility of securing Lebanon's borders. CODEL Shays conveyed the support of the American people for Lebanon and said they would ensure that their colleagues in the U.S. House of Representatives understand the precariousness of the cease-fire and the challenges faced by the country's pro-reform forces. End summary. ¶2. CODEL Shays, comprising Representative Christopher Shays (R-CT),Representative Al Green (D-TX),Representative Robert Inglis (R-SC),and Representative Brian Higgins (R-NY),and the Ambassador met with Prime Minister Siniora at the Grand Serail on August 23. Senior GOL advisors Mohammad Chatta and Rola Nouraddine also attended the late afternoon meeting. ¶3. The Prime Minister described the difficult challenges his Government and the Lebanese people were facing as it tried to stabilize a post-conflict environment that many of the country's citizens believe may only be a pause in a much longer war. PM Siniora said he was concerned about comments coming out of Israel that could be interpreted as signaling further hostilities. He also spoke of the considerable damage inflicted on Lebanon, not only the loss of life, but the leveling of many towns, and the destruction of a significant portion of the country's industrial and agricultural productive capacity. LOSS OF CONFIDENCE -------------- ¶4. PM Siniora also explained to CODEL members that his country was not exhibiting the same resilience it had shown after prior conflicts, because few Lebanese now had confidence in the future. He spoke of increasing emigration of the best and the brightest of its citizens, and a notable reluctance to re-invest in the country's badly damaged economic base. ¶5. The Prime Minister spoke in grave tones about other damage -- both material and in terms of morale -- from the continuing air and sea blockade of his country by IDF forces. He argued that unless this "state of siege" was removed, the unique nature of Lebanon, which had made it a force for moderation, tolerance, and democratic principles in a difficult region, could well be lost. He cautioned that unless the pro-reform Government was able to change things for the better in Lebanon, extremist forces would take advantage of the resulting desperation. ¶6. PM Siniora stated that despite the dangers, not all was bleak. The Government has been able to garner sufficient support across the political spectrum to authorize and implement the first deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to south Lebanon in almost 40 years. Siniora also felt that his Government now had the instrument it needed to compel the disarmament of Hizballah -- and that was UNSCR 1701's acknowledgment of the issue of Shebaa Farms. ¶7. PM Siniora asked the CODEL members to help his Government find a just solution to the persistent problem of Shebaa. If the people of Lebanon perceived that Shebaa was settled in a fair manner, Siniora argued that they would then demand that Hizballah put down its arms. In this manner, the Prime Minister maintained the state could reclaim its constitutional authority to be the only bearer of arms throughout the country. He further stated that such a result would not only bring stability to Lebanon, but to Israel as well. In an ironic way, Siniora said that the "terrible experience" of the recent war might lead to a rare opportunity for Israel to finally live in peace with its BEIRUT 00002804 002 OF 002 neighbors. ¶8. Representative Shays stated he was speaking for his colleagues when he said that Lebanon's capacity to withstand the many challenges of the past month had elicited wide admiration in America. Rep. Shays said that the USG wanted to assist in such a way that this would be the last war that Lebanon would have to suffer, and asked the Prime Minister for his priorities for U.S. support. REQUEST TO LIFT THE BLOCKADE -------------- ¶9. PM Siniora immediately stated that his most urgent request was for America to use its influence to lift Israel's "suffocating" air and sea blockade of his country. Siniora said he understood Israel's concern that the flow of weapons that prevailed prior to the conflict had to stop and that it required his Government to implement much firmer control of the country's borders. He insisted that the focus, however, was misplaced by the on-going blockade. PM Siniora maintained that neither the international airport nor the port of Beirut were the principal routes for arms, but rather it was Lebanon's border with Syria. And even here, Siniora argued that recent deployments of additional LAF troops to the border areas had begun to stanch such activity. ¶10. Next in importance for the Prime Minister was a request for the USG to help focus international attention on Shebaa Farms. In his opinion, not only was the "return" of Shebaa the key to disarming Hizballah, but it also provided the means to reduce Iranian influence in Lebanon. The popular appeal of Hizballah relied on its reputation as a "resistance" movement, and similarly, the importance of this perceived mission allowed it to receive heavy Iranian subsidies without much scrutiny from the Lebanese. If Shebaa could be resolved, reasoned Siniora, the heavy influence of Iran would no longer be tolerated. Regardless, Siniora acknowledged the complexity and difficulty of the issue by remarking, "...only the U.S. can solve the tough ones." ¶11. PM Siniora also noted that USG assistance with reconstruction and rebuilding the country's security services in accordance with modern, democratic principles would be effective and most welcome, but he also admitted that other nations could handle these tasks as well. The Prime Minister emphasized again that the unique power and leverage of the U.S. should be applied foremost to the issues of the blockade and Shebaa. "A WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY" -------------- ¶12. When asked by Rep. Shays why his Government doesn't engage directly with the Government of Israel, PM Siniora said that in the present context that would not be feasible. But he did state that with a just and stable cease-fire, with the LAF in control of the south, and Lebanon's borders secure, the opportunity for solutions to region-wide issues was more possible than ever before. ¶13. PM Siniora stated his belief that the violent and basically inconclusive four weeks of warfare must have convinced the Government of Israel that its security could not be attained on the battlefield -- it would only be achieved through honest negotiations with all its neighbors and the eventual resolution of the long-standing grievances of both sides. ¶14. PM Siniora stated that, with the probable exception of Syria, all the Arab countries were finally beginning to speak of the incalculable waste of the past decades and of a lasting solution that would at long last stabilize and bring prosperity to the region. Siniora also remarked that even Syria, at some point, could be persuaded by the moderate Arab world to end its alliance with a radicalized Iran. He postulated that the Arab and Muslim worlds were frustrated that decades of war and antagonism had done nothing but enable the rise of extremism. With patience and reason, PM Siniora contended, both the moderate Arab world and the Government of Israel could find a way to once and for all put away the instruments of war. ¶15. CODEL Shays has cleared on this cable. FELTMAN