LEBANON: EDDE SEES DIMINISHED MARONITE ROLE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 002791

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: EDDE SEES DIMINISHED MARONITE ROLE;
WANTS END TO BLOCKADE


Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4(d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) During an August 24 luncheon with the Ambassador,
Pol/econ chief, and poloff at his home in Yarze, ex-Minister
and Head of the Maronite League Michel Edde offered familiar
lamentations that Christians in Lebanon are no longer as
influential as they once were and that the Shi'a and Sunna
are the ascendant communities. Edde, a close confidante of
Maronite Patriarch Sfeir, also urged the U.S. to pressure
Israel to end the blockade of Lebanon as soon as possible.
He asked that the U.S. support the Lebanese Armed Forces
(LAF) in carrying out their mission of defending Lebanon.
The Ambassador stressed that the U.S. is prepared to offer
support, but that the LAF needs to prove it is serious about
stopping smuggling and not providing cover for Hizballah to
continue its militancy. The lunch was also attended by Dr.
Khalil Karam, a sometime dentist and professor of
International Relations at St. Joseph's University. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Edde claims that, after "350 years of humiliation",
the Shi'a are finally able to assert themselves, with the
backing of Iran, throughout the Middle East. In Lebanon, the
primary conflict today is between the Sunna and Shi'a to see
which of these communities (and their foreign backers Iran
and Saudi Arabia) will predominate. The Christians in
Lebanon no longer have a united position of their own, said
Edde, but instead prefer to latch on to either the Sunna or
the Shi'a position. "This is the end of Christianity in
Lebanon," lamented Edde, who believes that Lebanon cannot
exist without a strong Maronite role.


3. (C) Regarding the growing irrelevance of the Maronite
presidency due to the awkward presence of the pro-Syrian
Emile Lahoud, Edde hopes that Lahoud can be removed soon.
"Let us pray," Edde said regarding this prospect, though he,
like many others, does not believe it is likely without the
support of Speaker Nabih Berri, who has not been forthcoming.
Edde urged further that the LAF, of which the upper echelons
are mainly Maronite, not be sidelined (as they were recently
when an LAF brigade was replaced at the airport by the
Hariri-aligned Internal Security Forces). "Don't humiliate
them," begged Edde, "Don't remove them from the port and the
airport. It's terrible!" The Ambassador noted that the LAF
now has the critical missions of securing the South and
stopping arms smuggling from Syria, and that if the LAF
handles these tasks responsibly then it should expect even
further recognition and support from the international
community.


4. (C) Edde also requested U.S. help in ending the Israeli
blockade, which he said is "asphyxiating all of Lebanon" and
not accomplishing anything. The Ambassador stressed that the
blockade will not be lifted until such time as the Lebanese
government has in place an effective, credible monitoring
system in ports, airports, and at points along the border
with Syria to stop arms smuggling. Lebanon should ask for
international help as soon as possible. Until then, the
blockade will continue. Edde said he hopes the GOL quietly
requests foreign training and equipment for monitoring as
soon as possible. Edde stressed again that the Lebanese need
U.S. assistance to get the blockade lifted.

COMMENT
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5. (C) Though not highly-substantive, Edde's comments
highlight two themes which we have encountered repeatedly: a
sense among the Maronites that their heyday as the most
influential political community in Lebanon is long past, and
a cross-confessional belief that the continued air and sea
blockade is punishing Lebanon excessively. Rightly or
wrongly, Edde believes - as do almost all Lebanese - that the
U.S. holds the key to alleviating the blockade. This issue
has become the focus of any encounter these days between USG
officials and the Lebanese. End Comment.
FELTMAN