LEBANON: AOUN UNREPENTANT ON HIZBALLAH ALLIANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002777 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2016 TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN UNREPENTANT ON HIZBALLAH ALLIANCE REF: BEIRUT 2508 Classified By: JEFFREY D. FELTMAN, AMBASSADOR. REASON: 1.4(D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a August 26 meeting with Representative Tom Lantos (D-CA),Mrs. Lantos, Ambassador Feltman, senior staffer Alan Makovsky, and poloff at his home in Rabieh, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader and ex-General Michel Aoun tried unconvincingly to rationalize his political alliance with Hizballah, claiming that he was having a "temporizing" effect on the group. "The General," as he is known among his followers, believes that Hizballah would integrate into a "national defense strategy" once the Sheba'a Farms and prisoner issues are resolved. Aoun accused the March 14 group of exacerbating tensions with Hizballah, and said the GOL is merely a tool for communication between Hizballah and the outside world. Misunderstanding a question from Rep. Lantos on arms smuggling, Aoun claimed that the Lebanese could not "seal" the border with Syria since Lebanon needs to have that outlet to the Arab world. Further, he feels that the LAF is capable of monitoring the border by itself and fears that if UNIFIL deploys along the frontier Syria will respond by blockading Lebanon. END SUMMARY. SLEEPING WITH THE DEVIL -------------- ¶2. (C) Rep. Lantos opened the meeting by telling Aoun that he no longer admires the General as before, since Aoun had made the "fundamental strategic mistake" of allying with Hizballah (Note. The FPM and Hizballah signed a "Memorandum of Understanding" in February of this year. End Note). To explain his association, Aoun launched into a revisionist history beginning with his triumphant return to Lebanon in May 2005 (when he memorably told the assembled masses at the airport to "shut up"). Aoun said that no one within the March 14 movement was prepared at that time to challenge Hizballah on its weapons. The General stood alone in asking Hizballah to "deliver" its weapons. However, seeing that by fall 2005 there was a deep lack of confidence between Hizballah and the March 14-led government, and that the militant group couldn't be disarmed by force, Aoun decided the best prescription was to cozy up to Hizballah and encourage it to "become more Lebanese." This led the FPM and Hizballah to sign the MOU earlier this year. ; ¶3. (C) Looking incredulous, Rep. Lantos said that Aoun had chosen to "sleep with the devil." Aoun, seeming unconvinced himself, said that he has played a moderating role with Hizballah. Among the gleaming results of this positive effect, Aoun claims, are that Hizballah started referring to "Israel" rather than "Occupied Palestine" (though nowadays Hizballah refers to the southern neighbor simply as "the enemy"),no longer says they will fight "until Jerusalem", and has stopped claiming there are occupied Lebanese villages in Galilee. ¶4. (C) Despite these semantic achievements, the Ambassador countered, Hizballah still went ahead and kidnapped Israeli soldiers on July 12, pitching all of Lebanon into war, despite the MOU with Aoun. Aoun replied feebly that the MOU was only "agreed to," never "implemented," so in this context Hizballah's action was not a breach of trust. He mentioned that at the last meeting of the "National Dialogue" before the kidnappings, topics for discussion had included "who has the authority to pull the trigger" on Hizballah operations, but that this had not been resolved. ¶5. (C) Since the conflict started, Aoun claims, he has played a role to avoid a civil war by "developing some moderation." Claiming that Hizballah is "not as dangerous as you think," Aoun said that the Shi'a no longer feel disproportionately weak within Lebanon and are shifting from "a military life to a civilian and political life." ¶6. (C) Aoun said that if the issues of Sheba'a Farms and Hizballah prisoners in Israel are solved, then he believes Hizballah's weapons could be "integrated into a National Defense Strategy." Rep. Lantos replied that Aoun was "insulting my intelligence" since both men know that Sheba'a BEIRUT 00002777 002 OF 002 is a concocted excuse to rationalize the existence of an armed state within a state. Aoun said he does not agree, adding that there are land deeds which show that the Sheba'a Farms are Lebanese. The Ambassador replied that, be that as it may, the Sheba'a issue is at most a border dispute to be resolved through diplomacy, not through unilateral action by a militant group which is not even answerable to the Lebanese state. STOP REARMAMENT OF HIZBALLAH -------------- ¶7. (C) Rep. Lantos warned that if Hizballah is allowed to rearm, that the tragedy recently visited upon Lebanon will only be repeated again and again. He asked why had the GOL not requested UNIFIL assistance in "sealing" the Lebanese-Syrian border to arms smuggling. Aoun, who does not speak English well, misunderstood and replied that Lebanon could not "seal" the border since it needs an outlet for commerce to the rest of the Middle East. Once Aoun understood Rep. Lantos's meaning, he replied that the LAF could monitor the border on its own, and that Syria would consider it an "aggressive action" were UNIFIL troops to deploy along the frontier. ¶8. (C) When Rep. Lantos challenged Aoun on the LAF's readiness to handle this mission, since according to Hizballah the LAF is not even capable of defending the South, Aoun appeared stumped and changed the subject, complaining that the Siniora administration is "not a real government" and is incapable of making decisions. "We need a new government," stated the Presidency-seeking Aoun. Rep. Lantos warned Aoun again that the border must be blocked and rearmament prevented. "I will do," Aoun replied vaguely. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) This was yet another depressing meeting with Aoun, who as yet appears unwilling to question the wisdom of his alliance with Hizballah. While in one breath Aoun complains that the March 14 movement broke confidence with Hizballah, driving the FPM and Hizballah closer together, he also deludes himself into believing that the July 12 kidnappings were not a breach of his MOU. We are stunned that Aoun does not see that Hizballah considers the MOU not worth the paper it is written on, except that it allows them to exploit a Christian who, because of his personal ambitions, is supportive of "the resistance." ¶10. (C) The last time we saw Aoun was on August 1 (reftel), and since then his support has dwindled even further as people are repelled by his blindly pro-Hizballah stance. However, rather than deserting to other Christian parties such as the Kata'eb or Lebanese Forces, we believe that many Christians feel a sense of insecurity and despair about their future in a Lebanon dominated by Hassan Nasrallah and the Hariris (read Iran and Saudi Arabia). Seeing no other clear Christian leader (certainly not President Lahoud) and no role for themselves in Lebanon, Christians seem more interested now in leaving Lebanon than in finding a leader behind whom they might rally their still considerable numbers. If Aoun ever sees the light and changes his stance on Hizballah, as we so dearly wish he would do, he might yet be able to win back followers and present a more united Christian front. ¶11. (U) Rep. Lantos did not have the opportunity to clear this message. FELTMAN