LEBANON: HARIRI WANTS LEBANESE MARSHALL PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 002706 SIPDIS SIPDIS NOFORN NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2026 TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY IS SUBJECT: LEBANON: HARIRI WANTS LEBANESE MARSHALL PLAN REF: BEIRUT 2680 Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason 1.4(d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C/NF) During a difficult 8/20 meeting at his Qureitem mansion with Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman and poloff, a somewhat erratic Saad Hariri pressed for the immediate reopening of Lebanon's ports and airports. Pushing back, the Ambassador said that until the Government of Lebanon (GOL) does more to improve monitoring of points of entry, as is required under UNSCR 1701, the U.S. will not be able to convince the Israelis to lift their blockade. During the meeting, Saad called Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri to ask (in a misleading way) that Hizballah-sympathetic LAF officers be removed from the cargo terminal at Rafiq Hariri Beirut International Airport (BIA). ¶2. (C/NF) Calling for "a Marshall Plan for Lebanon," Saad said the USG must help strengthen Lebanese government institutions, in particular the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and Internal Security Forces (ISF). When the Ambassador was critical of a recent statement by LAF commander Michel Sleiman supportive of "the resistance," Saad argued that the LAF has been left in a weak position by the international community and so must act submissive in front of Hizballah. The Ambassador said that, in terms of assistance, no one will be able to help Lebanon until the GOL presents a clear reconstruction plan. Saad laid out the latest GOL plan, which involves channelling funds through a new Arab fund for Lebanon, and promised to push PM Siniora to present the plan to ambassadors as soon as tomorrow 8/21. Regarding the "special tribunal with international character" to try those suspected in the Rafiq Hariri assassination, Saad said the draft framework had been approved within the GOL at the working level and it now only requires Nicholas Michel from the UN's Office of Legal Affairs (OLA) to come and sign it, before the Lebanese cabinet and parliament consider it. End Summary. CHANGING THE BALL GAME -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) Seated in his funereal basement study, surrounded by images of his late father and fidgeting nervously with his prayer beads, Saad said that there needs to be "a different ball game" in the South. Responding to the Ambassador's complaints about LAF chief Michel Sleiman's recent 8/17 'Amr ul-'Amaliyyat' (Operations' Order) saying that the LAF would deploy "beside the resistance," implying tacit approval of an armed Hizballah, Saad said that Sleiman is hardly in a position to say anything else right now. So long as the army remains militarily weaker than Hizballah, he said, the LAF will have to maintain such a less-threatening posture. But once the army has "some teeth and some morale," Saad urged, then he promises to "smack Hizballah down." Growing more strident (and clearly hoping to be recorded verbatim),Saad assured the Ambassador, "Give me a chance, and I will f*** Hizballah." Saad also complained -- as have others including PM Siniora and Speaker Berri -- that Israeli attacks like the 8/19 raid north of Baalbek only serve to buttress Hizballah. ¶4. (C/NF) Bothered that the USG has not come through yet on items he has asked for previously -- Saad mentioned specifically machine guns and helicopters -- for the military and security forces, Saad urged that the U.S. do more to help strengthen these institutions. The Ambassador said that, indeed, we were increasing our assistance to both the LAF and ISF. But, he noted, it is difficult to find sympathetic ears in Washington when senior Lebanese officials like General Sleiman (not to mention President Lahoud) are still crowing about the merits of the resistance. It also makes it harder for us to convince the Israelis of the LAF's seriousness in containing Hizballah. Ticking off numerous speeches since Sleiman's that strike a different tone (his own, PM Siniora's, Walid Jumblatt's, Defense Minister Murr's),Saad implied the Ambassador is blowing Sleiman's statement out of proportion. He said that all that is needed is for the USG to lean on some of the Gulf Arab states -- Qatar, Kuwait, BEIRUT 00002706 002 OF 003 UAE, and Saudi Arabia -- to cough up military equipment for the ISF and LAF. Saad pleaded, "Just please tell the Arabs to help the army." He said that the UAE came up with $50 million for the ISF immediately once the USG asked. Now the USG needs to ask for the army. CONTROLLING POINTS OF ENTRY -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) Referring to lukewarm statements from Lebanese ministers, the Ambassador asked why the GOL is treating UNSCR 1701 as a burden rather than a blessing to help Lebanon secure its sovereignty. Why, for instance, is the GOL not willing to quietly ask for UNIFIL assistance at the ports, airports, and Lebanese-Syrian border to stop Iran and Syria from supplying arms to Hizballah and others? This is a key point. Saad replied that this is a sovereignty issue, adding shockingly (surely in reference to violations of sovereignty, not intent) that "there is no difference between UNIFIL and Syria." The Ambassador told Saad that this answer would not suffice in getting the Israeli blockade lifted, and if the GOL wants to achieve that objective, then they need to ensure effective monitoring at points of entry. ¶6. (C/NF) Saying that "we are the ones who control the port and the airport," Saad complained emotively that the U.S. policy has led to an "embargo that has suffocated the Cedar Revolution for one month." The embargo does not hurt Hizballah but cripples March 14. Saad assured the Ambassador that "99 per cent" of arms smuggled into Lebanon come across the Syrian frontier. Only very few come through the port and airport, and the GOL has made recent significant changes in security at BIA. When the Ambassador told Saad that ISF chief Ashraf Rifi had informed us that the BIA cargo terminal remains under the influence of LAF officers sympathetic to Hizballah (reftel),Saad picked up the phone and called Nabih Berri directly. Speaking in Arabic, Saad cle粑rly lied to Berri on the phone, saying that "the United Nations had told him to just change the Shi'a officers at the cargo terminal," and also that "that will be the end of the issue. It will solve the problem." Later on in the meeting, Saad said he would resolve the issue of the cargo terminal with Nabih Berri "today." "If I do, then open the airport." The Ambassador did not guarantee that the Israelis would accept this measure as sufficient, and again urged Saad to ask PM Siniora to quietly request UNIFIL to come help at the airport. (Comment. Striking throughout this meeting was Saad's absolute disregard for Siniora's prime ministerial prerogative. End Comment.) ¶7. (C/NF) When the Ambassador asked what the GOL intends to do to secure the border, Saad complained that the army is already stretched thin and has enough on its hands already in the South. "We're asking the army to do everything at the same time!" He said that the international community needs to take a "stand" on the border. When the Ambassador asked what this meant, Saad suggested getting the UN to place sanctions on Syria. RECONSTRUCTION PLAN TAKES SHAPE -------------- ¶8. (C/NF) The Ambassador asked whether the GOL is any closer to developing a clear plan for reconstruction. Saad replied confidently that, "We're going to rebuild all the homes that were destroyed with money from the Saudis, Qataris, Emiratis, and Kuwaitis." The first step will be to assess the destruction and provide cost estimates for the rebuilding of each village, a process well underway. The assessment in southern Lebanon would be carried out under the auspices of Nabih Berri's Council for the South (considered a cash black hole, the Council will wisely not have any control over project funds, but will still get much of the credit for rebuilding). The donor countries, in conjunction with the GOL, would then choose which villages they want to rebuild as well as select the contractors. Sufficient project funds, Saad said, would then be disbursed from a new 'Arab Fund for Rebuilding Lebanon.' ¶9. (C/NF) On the Ambassador's urging that the GOL launch a more effective public relations campaign to broadcast all BEIRUT 00002706 003 OF 003 that it is doing to rebuild Lebanon, Saad said that PM Siniora would be visiting him later today (8/20) to finalize the plan. Following this, there will be a public announcement of the GOL effort. Saad also noted that PM Siniora and Speaker Berri had (finally) visited the southern suburbs together earlier today, and that he himself would be going there at some point in the next few days. Saad pressed again for U.S. assistance in rallying international support -- "Go freaking help Lebanon! Unleash everything on Lebanon! We need a Marshall Plan!" The Ambassador mentioned that, in order to see how much the international community could pledge towards Lebanon, there must be GOL coordination so we all have some idea of what work needs to be done and which country will undertake what project. Saad promised he would tell PM Siniora to convene ambassadors soon to give them a list of "1 billion dollars worth of what needs rebuilding." He said that the GOL's new relief coordinator, Ghassan Taher, started work today, and that Taher was previously involved in the German-supported Hizballah-Israeli prisoner swap negotiations in 2003/04. TRIBUNAL -------------- ¶10. (C/NF) Noting that Bashar al-Asad's 8/15 speech was "the best thing he could have done," Saad said the Saudis had "gone ballistic" over Bashar's bullying anti-Lebanon rhetoric. The Ambassador asked how things are proceeding on the establishment of a "special tribunal with international character" to try suspects in the Hariri assassination. Saad said the GOL, particularly Justice Minister Charles Rizk, had reviewed the draft tribunal agreement provided by the UN's OLA and had made some "fixes" to it. The next step is for UN/OLA's Nicholas Michel to come to Lebanon to finalize and sign the agreement. (Note. Then comes the hard part, which is gaining Lebanese Cabinet and Parliamentary approval while avoiding a government collapse. End Note) COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C/NF) Locked away in his palace, 'Sheikh Saad' was in an erratic mood. His claim that the USG's failure to get supplies to the LAF leaves Michel Sleiman with no choice but to say the LAF would deploy "beside the resistance" is simply preposterous, and the Ambassador pointed out to Saad that it would have been better had Sleiman simply not mentioned "the resistance" at all. (Sleiman himself seems to have gotten the message about the outrageousness of comments, for he is busily spinning his comments -- delivered last Thursday -- as meaning that the army would stand with the "heroic people of the south," a dubious interpretation.) In addition, we were shocked by Saad's total dismissiveness of Siniora, particularly in phoning Speaker Berri, lying to him and asking him outright to "change the Shi'a officers" without consulting Siniora on this action. Saad tried to get through to Acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat following his call with Berri, presumably to inform Fatfat of his decision. Throughout the meeting, Saad referred to GOL actions over the past week (since his return from Paris) as if he himself had carried them out, not Siniora. One wonders whether Siniora might have preferred Saad to remain outside of Lebanon conducting his so-called "diplomatic resistance." ¶12. (C/NF) Saad's comments on the reconstruction planning and the tribunal indicate things are at least moving in the right direction. The reconstruction effort seems to have coalesced into a scheme which allows joint donor and GOL control, along with transparency and accountability -- no doubt due to Siniora's cautious, if agonizingly deliberative, approach. In addition, by putting Berri's organization out in front, but not allowing it to handle the funds, you give a needed public relations boost to a secular Shi'a alternative to Hizballah while not lining Randa Berri's pockets. We very much hope to receive a clearer idea in the next days as to Lebanon's specific reconstruction needs. On the tribunal framework, if it is indeed ready to be signed, we should urge the UN send Michel out to Lebanon as soon as possible, perhaps -- as suggested by Marwan Hamadeh (see septel) -- to accompany Kofi Annan during the SYG's visit next week. FELTMAN