LEBANON: JUMBLATT WANTS HARIRI TO OPEN HIS WALLET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 002705

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER CVIS SY IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: JUMBLATT WANTS HARIRI TO OPEN HIS WALLET

Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4(d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C/NF) Ambassador Feltman, poloff, and pol FSN shared a
subdued lunch with Druze chieftain Walid Jumblatt on 8/19 at
his Moukhtara manse in the Shouf Mountains. Jumblatt said
the government needs to get moving on the reconstruction
effort, and that Saad Hariri can help by doling out his vast
fortune to help pay for the effort and win hearts and minds,
a la Hizballah. Remarking that Lebanon faces a "bleak
future" if Nasrallah is able to consolidate his "victory"
over Israel, Jumblatt fears the flight of the bourgeosie --
especially Christians -- out of Lebanon, tipping the
confessional balance. Jumblatt urged that the March 14
movement should find a way to split Parliamentary Speaker
Nabih Berri away from his Hizballah coreligionists in order
to weaken Hizballah's hand, and also to help topple
Hizballah-sympathizing President Emile Lahoud (but only after
the approval of the Hariri tribunal in the current cabinet).
Never one to back a weaker party for long -- a strategy that
ensures the disproportionate political influence of his tiny
Druze community in Lebanon -- Jumblatt does not think Saad
Hariri yet displays the political and public relations acumen
of his father Rafiq. Jumblatt pushed for the swift reopening
of the airports, but acknowledged that the international
community's valid concerns about monitoring are well-founded.


2. (C/NF) Discussing security within Lebanon, Jumblatt said
he received a warning from Syrian ex-Vice President Abdel
Halim Khaddam that he and PM Siniora should "be careful." He
also has it on authority from a Syrian intelligence source
that his Druze rival Wiam Wahhab is working closely with
Damascus. Jumblatt said he plans to travel to Jordan on
Monday 8/20, and then onward to France for a socialist party
congress, before returning to Lebanon on Saturday 8/25.
Saying he hopes to travel to the U.S. in a few months,
Jumblatt asked the Ambassador if there is any possibility of
getting a further waiver of his visa ineligibility. Looking
ahead with hopeful anticipation to his retirement someday (if
indeed Druze feudal lords ever truly retire),Jumblatt said
he believes his oldest son Taimur will be prepared to assume
the mantle, though he complained that his younger son Arslan,
a kind of Druse Generation Y'er, "doesn't care a damn about
any of this." END SUMMARY.

"200 MILLION DOLLARS IS PEANUTS"
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3. (C/NF) Seated in his reception room replete with a large
brass Buddha, a Damascene ceiling (with Star of David motif),
and hanging Esfahan lanterns, and with his Chinese fighting
dog 'Oscar' gnawing at a bone in the corner, Jumblatt told
the Ambassador that the GOL has to move fast in order to beat
Hizballah on the reconstruction effort. Noting that PM
Siniora had done a good job during the war with Israel,
Joumblatt complained that "Siniora needs more guts" in
handling the rebuilding effort. Even though his life is
under threat, Jumblatt counselled, Siniora needs to go
together with Nabih Berri and show his face in the destroyed
southern suburbs. He also needs to manage the Cabinet to get
it to decide on a rebuilding plan. "He needs to stand up and
say, 'I am the Prime Minister of Lebanon.'"


4. (C/NF) Suggesting that he cares more for moving money
than for public accountability that governments and donors
usually require, Jumblatt recommended that reconstruction
money be channelled through the Berri-controlled Council for
the South and the Druze-controlled Fund for the Displaced
(Comment. Based on their record in the post-civil war period,
neither of these is considered a paragon of financial
regularity. End Comment). Noting that "houses are much more
important than bridges," Jumblatt said that the government
needs to rebuild at least half of the houses in the Beirut
suburbs and the South, but has only a year to do so before
the Hizballah machine accomplishes the task first. The
question, of course, is getting the money to do so. The
Iranians seem to have an inexhaustible supply of cash, and
with no government bureacracy or accountability mechanism,
can dole it out as they please (Note. Joumblatt said that
some of the Shi'a IDPs who stayed up in the Shouf during the

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war were well-off and had "Range Rovers full of cash" which
they said they could get easily on open credit from the Bank
Saderat Iran. End Note).


5. (C/NF) Making a rough calculation, Jumblatt said that
15,000 housing units need to be rebuilt which, at $12,000 per
unit, comes to $180,000,000. (Others have estimated about
$40,000 per unit.) Rounding up, Jumblatt declared, "200
million! It's peanuts, pocket money for the Hariri family!"
Jumblatt said that Saad Hariri needs to start spending his
massive fortune as his late father, Rafiq, had done. Noting
that Hizballah is handing out money for rebuilding even in
the heavily-Sunni northern city of Akkar and also that
150,000 Sunni IDPs had fled their homes in the Biqa' valley
for Syria, where they had been well-treated, Jumblatt said
that Saad needs to shore up his support in the Lebanese Sunni
hinterlands before these Sunnis start switching their
allegiance to the pro-Syria cause. "We don't need democracy
now," said Jumblatt; "We need money." Jumblatt lamented that
while Saad had finally supplied him with $1 million last
week, he said that, "This is peanuts. I can speand it in two
to three months." (Note: Jumblatt has told us before that
Rafiq Hariri provided Jumblatt with about $3 million a year
for Druse patronage, which probably explain Joumblatt's
ingratitude. End Note.)


6. (C/NF) Apart from financial concerns, Jumblatt is also
clearly not enamoured of Saad's abilities as a political
tactician. Noting that "Saad's a nice guy," -- which, in the
world of Lebanese politics, is not a compliment -- Jumblatt
remarked that Saad's 8/17 speech was "not very good" and that
the whole atmosphere surrounding Saad, including his
Saudi-styled "royal entourage," is rather off-putting for
Lebanese. Later in the conversation, after he had put down a
couple glasses of his own Kefraya wine, Jumblatt shook his
head in dismay and said, "The big problem is Saad. What can
I do?" Jumblatt hopes Saad can take more of a positive
leadership role and, instead of dwelling on the past and
speaking in grand-sounding maxims against Syria, start making
decisions and doling out the funds.

CONFESSIONAL BALANCE
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7. (C/NF) Estimating that non-Palestinian Sunnis in Lebanon
still outnumber Shi'a by a slim number, Jumblatt worries that
the growing Shi'a community is gradually becoming "less Arab
and less Lebanese, and more Persian." He predicts that Sunni
preeminence in Lebanon will slowly shift toward the Shi'a,
with Iran making ever greater inroads. The Christians,
bereft of any unifying political leadership and dominated by
an erratic ex-General (Aoun) who supports Hizballah's right
to bear arms, will begin to sell their land and leave
Lebanon, depriving Lebanon of its primary "bourgeosie"
sector. The tiny Druze community, whom Jumblatt described as
the "Last of the Mohicans," will be forced to deal with this
changing confessional balance, meaning they might have to
switch sides to survive.

KEEPING THE SHI'A LEBANESE
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8. (C/NF) According to Jumblatt, all the non-Shi'a
religious groups, particularly the Christians, need to have
some confidence that this Iranian-inspired Shi'ite power can
be checked. On the regional level, Jumblatt said that the
solution is to "make Syria Sunni," blocking Iran's primary
point of access to Lebanon while satisfying the other Sunni
states in the region. He noted that Bashar al-Asad's
belligerent 8/15 speech attacking Lebanon's internal
integrity was like "a gift", adding, "Thank God Bashar's so
stupid. Even the people of Hizballah were annoyed with him."
Within Lebanon, Jumblatt said that the moderate Shi'a
element must be nurtured and split off from its reliance on
Hizballah patronage. Jumblatt said that this process should
begin with Speaker Berri, leader of the much-diminished
secular Shi'a Amal party, who can play a key role in
moderating the Shi'a if he can be enticed out of the
Hizballah fold. (Like others, Jumblatt has no good ideas of
how this can be done, other than channeling lots of money
through the Berri-controlled Council for the South.)


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LAHOUD/TRIBUNAL
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9. (C/NF) As to whether President Lahoud can be deposed,
thereby removing one of Hizballah's primary protectors,
Jumblatt said that this would depend on whether Speaker Berri
sees it in his best interests or not, since the addition of
Berri's Amal bloc to the March 14 deputies would allow for
the necessary 2/3 of votes in Parliament needed to remove
Lahoud. However, Jumblatt would not support forming a
national unity government in exchange for Berri's support for
Lahoud's ouster, at least not yet: Jumblatt argued that it
is far more important that March 14 maintain its current
majority in Parliament and the Cabinet in order to press for
the tribunal to try suspects in the Hariri assassination.
Jumblatt believes that a threat from March 14 to remove Berri
from the Speakership when he is due for renewal next summer
would be counter-productive and would drive Berri further
into the arms of Hizballah. "We won't threaten Berri. The
Shi'a will band together."

UNSCR 1701 IMPLEMENTATION
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10. (C/NF) Jumblatt remarked that the Lebanese Armed Forces
(LAF) deployment is going well, and that the army had
received a warm reception in the Christian and Sunni areas of
the South. However, the mood upon the LAF"s arrival in the
Shi'a town of Qana was much "cooler." Jumblatt also does not
approve of LAF chief Michel Sleiman's order that the LAF
deploy "next to the resistance," and has little trust in
Defense Minister Elias Murr.


11. (C/NF) Jumblatt also pressed for the airport to be
reopened. The Ambassador responded that more must first be
done to reassure the international community that there is an
effective mechanism in pace to block arms smuggling.
Jumblatt seemed to understand these concerns, adding that
Yasser Mahmoud, the Druze who has recently been put in charge
of airport security, is "nice and honest, but not effective."
He also noted that the Surete Generale, considered to be
pro-Syrian, is still in charge of immigration at the airport.

SECURITY CONCERNS
--------------


12. (C/NF) Jumblatt said that he had been in touch with a
source close to Syrian intelligence, who warned him to "watch
out" for his Druze rival, Wiam Wahhab, who has apparently
been working closely with the Syrians. Also, Syrian ex-VP
Abdul Halim Khaddam called him from Paris to say that he and
PM Siniora should be careful. Saying he plans to travel to
France next week to attend a socialist party gathering in La
Rochelle, Jumblatt said that a French intelligence contact
told him that Asif Shawkat, director of Syrian intelligence,
visited Paris within the past month and met with French
officials.

FUTURE PLANS
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13. (C/NF) Remarking that he hopes to travel to the U.S.
once things have settled down in Lebanon, Jumblatt asked if
he could get a renewed waiver of his visa ineligibility (he
received an initial waiver in February 2005, for 6 months).
Looking further ahead, "Walid Beyk" believes his elder son
Taimur will be prepared to assume the leadership of the
Lebanese Druze community whenever Jumblatt decides to "retire
and get my green card." Emitting a low sigh and rubbing his
bald head, Jumblatt worried though that his 'Generation Y'
younger son, Arslan, is less enthralled by the whole Druze
feudal ethos (of course, Jumblatt himself was a
motorcycle-riding hippy when he was suddenly thrust into the
Druze leadership following his father Kamal's assassination
in 1977).

COMMENT
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14. (C/NF) A true leader whatever one may think of him, the
curiously (if unconventionally) charismatic Jumblatt has for
years played a clever political game to maintain the

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relevance of the tiny Druze community in Lebanon. Officially
listed as 7-8 percent of the population, and apportioned
power as such, it is believed the Druze today make up less
than 5 percent of Lebanon's population. This has meant that
Druze allegiance has often switched very quickly from one
team to another, as the Druse try to stay on the winning side
to protect themselves. Jumblatt's concerns about the weak
leadership (and tight-fistedness) of the Sunnis under Saad
and the lack of unity of the Maronites are in stark contract
to his assessment of the well-funded, well-organized Shi'a
machine. While we don't think Jumblatt would easily jump
back into the pro-Syria camp, nor that Syria would want him
back, he must now be considering whether he is still backing
the right horse -- or, rather, is still being backed by the
right horse. We did not see signs that he is wavering yet,
but he worry that he might -- not to save his own skin at
this point, as he seems to realize that Syria will never
forgive him, but to maintain the importance of the Druse
community in Lebanon and the leadership position of the
Jumblatt dynasty.
FELTMAN