SINIORA ON UNSCR 1701, RECONSTRUCTION, WAY FORWARD

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 002702

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2026
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MOPS EAID LE SY IS
SUBJECT: SINIORA ON UNSCR 1701, RECONSTRUCTION, WAY FORWARD


Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S/NF) In a one-on-one somewhat scratchy meeting with
the Ambassador on 8/18, Prime Minister Siniora bristled at
the suggestion that he was projecting the wrong image
regarding UNSCR 1701. Citing army deployment to the
Syrian-Lebanese border as well as southern Lebanon, it is
simply not true that he is ignoring Lebanon's obligations, he
argued. As for international assistance at the border posts
(a topic that appeared to annoy him),he will listen to UN
envoys this weekend and the Germans on Monday and make any
decisions later. Asked to make his public message regarding
UNSCR 1701 more positive, Siniora expressed frustration: the
Israelis' military action, he claimed, strengthened Hizballah
("just like they did with Hamas"),which narrows his room for
maneuver. Had the USG been willing to help on Shebaa Farms,
all would be different. The USG should be grateful, not
critical, for what he has accomplished in this imperfect
atmosphere. Siniora also cited studies and commitments in
rejecting the suggestion that the state seems to have
abdicated the reconstruction effort to Hizballah. Lashing
back, Siniora said that he had asked the United States at the
beginning of the conflict for weapons for the ISF that were
never delivered, later for steel trestle/Bailey bridges never
delivered, a lifting of the "seige" on the airport and
seaports, and nothing happened. While the Ambassador refuted
Siniora's points, the PM was more in the mood for unloading
than listening. End summary.

HOPING FOR A POSITIVE PICTURE
OF UNSCR 1701 FROM THE PM
--------------


2. (S/NF) The Ambassador sat with Siniora (who appeared
exhausted) one-on-one for 90 minutes on 8/18, although the
meeting was interrupted frequently by phone calls. Saying
that he wanted to talk to Siniora unofficially and as a
friend, the Ambassador cautioned Siniora that he was
projecting the wrong image of UNSCR 1701. This resolution in
so many ways is a victory for Lebanon, yet Siniora speaks of
it publicly in a begrudging, reluctant fashion that fuels
suspicions about the resolution. Moreover, the Lebanese seem
to hope to evade their obligations under the resolution, even
in the case of unambiguous calls to improve border security
-- an issue in Lebanon's interest most of all. Siniora, the
Ambassador said, could ease implementation by exercising
strong leadership and selling UNSCR 1701 in a positive light.
That would give more confidence to the Lebanese and the
international community that things were moving forward in
the right way.

REFUTING ALLEGATIONS ON 1701
THAT "NOTHING IS HAPPENING"
--------------


3. (S/NF) Tapping his fingers and exhaling loudly as the
Ambassador talked, Siniora said that he did not doubt the
Ambassador's sincerity or good intentions. But, he said, it
is simply false to say that the GOL is ignoring its UNSCR
1701 obligations. "Does no one in your government
understand" that the LAF deployment to the south is historic?
Siniora also accused the ambassador of ignoring changes made
in security at the airport, "and you know very well what has
happened there." He also briefed the Ambassador on what he
called a "quiet deployment" of LAF soldiers to the
Syrian-Lebanese border, done without a cabinet decision in
order not to attract attention. After checking numbers by
phone with LAF G-2 Commander Georges Khoury, Siniora claimed
that 4,000 soldiers have already deployed to the border area,
with another 3,000 to go. That is a significant increase
over the mere 500 that were there before, he claimed. "We
are working, very hard." (Note: We have no independent
confirmation of the deployment to the Syrian border. We do
not believe Siniora would pass false information to us, but
we wonder whether falsely encouraging information might have
been passed to him. End note.)

RESISTING AN EXPLICIT REQUEST
FOR UNIFIL DEPLOYMENT AT BORDER
--------------


4. (S/NF) When Siniora complained bitterly that the air and
sea blockade continues (with some exceptions),the Ambassador

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told Siniora that the PM himself held the power to get them
lifted: ask UNIFIL, per para 14 of UNSCR 1701, to help at
the airport and seaport and also along the Syrian-Lebanese
border. That would give the international community
confidence, and the USG would use that to get the blockade
removed. The Ambassador noted that the USG had gone out on a
limb with the Israelis, insisting on the Beirut-Amman air
bridge, even though UNIFIL was not yet helping at the
airport. Siniora expressed impatience, saying that Lebanon,
as a sovereign country, should be able to come up with its
own security solutions. He would listen to what UN envoys
Terje Roed-Larsen and Vijay Nambiar tell him, and he will
meet with a team of German experts on Monday. He will make
no decisions without further consultation, he said, and then
pushed again for a full resumption of air service. The
Ambassador reminded Siniora that the collective desire not to
return to the status quo ante applies to the airport and
seaport as well as the south. (Note: The Ambassador saw
Larsen late on 8/18. Larsen agreed to push the UNIFIL
request to Siniora, too. End note.)

ISRAEL STRENGTHENED HAMAS
AND DID SAME THING WITH HIZBALLAH
--------------


5. (S/NF) As for his alleged bad attitude about UNSCR 1701,
Siniora said that he to maneuver very carefully because of
Hizballah's increased political strength. Israel, he said,
"never learns." Israel thought military action would weaken
Hamas; whatever military losses Hamas suffered, it more than
compensated with political gains. On a smaller scale, the
same thing happened with PIJ and PFLP-GC, Siniora argued.
Now, the Israelis have deluded themselves again: Israeli
military attacks just strengthen groups like Hizballah.
Hizballah is now stronger, at the expense of the GOL. In
this context, the USG should be grateful at how much Siniora
has been able to accomplish, including by getting the
resolution accepted unanimously in the cabinet. From a
position of extreme weakness, "with my hands tied behind my
back by the Israelis" (presumably another reference to the
blockade that seems to preoccupy Siniora -- who often calls
to check on fuel and food deliveries),he managed to get the
army to the south.

REPEATING ARGUMENTS LINKING
DISARMAMENT TO SHEBAA FARMS
--------------


6. (S/NF) The Ambassador told Siniora that, had Lebanon
been dealing with Hizballah in a serious way, then Israel
might never have needed to take military action. But Lebanon
failed to exercise responsibility for what took place on
Lebanese soil. Interrupting, Siniora said that the United
States "took away the tools" he needed to chip away at
Hizballah's state-within-a-state status. Repeating familiar
arguments, Siniora said that the USG and Israel were being
short-sighted in preventing a transfer of Shebaa Farms to
international stewardship pending border demarcation. The
U.S. position "makes Iran and Syria very, very happy." The
Ambassador responded that, if Shebaa Farms were suddenly
handed to Lebanon tomorrow, he saw no evidence that the GOL
would then be willing to attempt disarmament of Hizballah.
Siniora disagreed: "do you think the Sunnis, the Druse, the
Christians like having a Shia militia inside Lebanon?" he
asked. But one can't build momentum for disarmament when the
advocates for that position an be so easily accused of caving
to an American-Israeli plot and of abandoning occupied
Lebanese land. "I told the Secretary, and I even told the
President at the White House," Siniora said, "the key is
Sheba'a Farms."

PUSHING FOR GOL COORDINATION
ON RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS
--------------


7. (S/NF) Shifting to reconstruction efforts, the
Ambassador briefed Siniora on a donors' lunch hosted by the
DCM for 22 players in the reconstruction field. All had the
same complaints about lack of centralized coordination and
lack of a GOL articulated vision and priorities. In terms of
publicity, the GOL effort was disastrous, the Ambassador
said, making it appear as though the state had abdicated all
responsibility for reconstruction to Hizballah. The
Ambassador urged Siniora to delegate someone immediately who
had stature and credibility, who could meet with donors and
project initiative on local and international media. The

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Ambassador noted how uncomfortable he felt, working with
other USG officials alone to set priorities for our
assistance, when we want to use our help to reinforce the
state. While there is strong political interest in capitals
to help Lebanon, Siniora needs to get a rconstruction
strategy and organization launched immediately. We'll get
behind him, but only if he moves quickly: otherwise, we'll
set our own priorities, and he will have to react.

20 DONORS FOR 20 BRIDGES;
WORRIED ABOUT ACCOUNTABILITY
--------------


8. (S/NF) Siniora rejected the suggestion that nothing was
happening at the government level. Look, he said,
brandishing a list: he had personally found 20 different
private-sector donors to rebuild 20 bridges. Soon, he will
announce a donor who will rebuild the airport. In the same
vein, he was finding people to "adopt" badly damaged southern
villages. (Indeed, during this meeting, one of the phone
calls Siniora received was from the Emir of Qatar, whom he
browbeat into a commitment to rebuild one of the villages.)
People who say that they don't see the state at work, Siniora
said, "don't know what they're talking about." Moreover, he
said, they usually mean that he should "pour money into the
Council for the South" -- the fund overseen by Nabih Berri
and perceived to be his own patronage slush fund -- "which I
am not going to do." Siniora said that he told the Saudis
and Kuwaits not to transfer the USD 500 million and USD 300
million (respectively) to Lebanon yet, because "I don't want
it to end up in Nabih Berri's pocket! We need
accountability!"


9. (S/NF) Siniora said that he remembered very well the
excesses of the rebuilding after the civil war, and he was
not going to perpetuate a reconstruction system that led to a
huge increase in Lebanon's debt burden. Thus, there are
professional engineering studies by the firm Khatib and Alamy
underway, and a professional coordinator (Ghassan Taher)
starts work on Saturday. Minister of Finance Azour is
working on a structure for a fund to which donors can
contribute with confidence about the end use. "You all push
me on reform -- am I supposed to ignore reform so I can hand
out money like Hassan Nasrallah? Is that what you want me to
do?" Moreover, Siniora said, "what have you done? At the
beginning of this crisis, I asked you for 2,000 rifles for
the ISF, mish hayk? Where are they?" (Siniora said that the
actual need was for 10,000 rifles -- in line with what ISF
Commander Ashraf Rifi has asked us to help with -- but he had
"slimmed it down so you could swallow the request.") As the
conflict was winding down, "I asked you for temporary steel
bridges. How many did you deliver?" And he took the
opportunity again to raise the air and sea blockade.


10. (S/NF) Refuting the idea that the USG has been
nonresponsive, the Ambassador reminded Siniora of what the
USG has done, including its commitment of USD 50 million in
emergency humanitarian and relief assistance and the extra
coordination work -- done directly in response to requests
from the PM -- on fuel deliveries. (The Ambassador did not
mention wheat, being unsure of the status of the request to
USDA and of the potential delivery date.) The Ambassdor
noted that, when Washington asks what are the GOL priorities
for U.S. funding on reconstruction, "I don't know what to
tell them." If Washington wants to pay for a high-profile
bridge reconstruction such as the one on the Damascus-Beirut
highway, we do not know whom to ask whether another donor is
already lined up. Claiming that the Italians will build that
particular bridge, Siniora sighed, "what do you want me to
do?" The Ambassador told him to have his new donor
coordinator call in all major donors at the beginning of the
week to explain the GOL strategy and priorities -- and to
move quickly, before Nasrallah has used cash hand-outs to
take over the country. "O.k," Siniora said, "we'll do it."
In closing the meeting, Siniora's tone turned apologetic: "I
know all of you are working very hard," he said. "So am I."

COMMENT
--------------


11. (S/NF) Siniora, who probably hasn't had a full night's
sleep since July 11, was grouchy. No one can accuse him of
being lazy on the job, and lining up 20 private-sector donors
for 20 key bridges frees up that much public money (from
either the GOL or donors) for other projects. But Siniora's
micromanaging style works better when one has sensitive

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negotiations regarding a potential Security Council
resolution than it does when one needs to design and
implement a reconstruction program quickly. Siniora does not
have the time to spend with individual donors on priorities,
yet those donors have the need to understand GOL thinking.
We are seeing Minister of Finance Azour -- close to Siniora
-- on Monday to see how best to jumpstart a GOL
reconstruction coordination effort.
FELTMAN